文
丨
理查德·穆勒
加大伯克利分校物理学教授
《Now, The Physics of Time》作者
When Trump announced our withdrawal from the Paris Accords, I felt that he had done the right thing.
当特朗普宣布美国退出《巴黎气候变化协定》时，我认为他做得很对。
Global warming is real, about 1.5 C in the last 250 years, and it is caused by human emission of greenhouse gases. That is a scientific judgement that I will stand behind, based on my own work and on that of my colleagues in the non-profit BerkeleyEarth.org.
全球变暖是真实存在的，过去的150年中由于人类排放温室气体造成了全球平均气温上升1.5℃。依据我个人及同事们在非营利组织“伯克利地球”的工作经验来看，我会坚决捍卫地球正在变暖的这个科学论断。
But the Paris accords did almost nothing to stop the increase. Alas, most of that increase will come from China, India, and the developing world, not from the US or Western Europe. To be effective, anything we rich nations do must set an example that the developing world can follow. That means it must not be expensive; if it isn’t profitable, it isn’t sustainable.
然而《巴黎气候变化协定》却几乎对阻止全球变暖起不到任何作用。唉，未来的全球变暖将主要是由中国、印度等发展中国家造成，而不再是欧美。若想要这个协定能够有所作为，发达国家采取的措施必须让发展中国家也可以效仿，这意味着不能太昂贵。如果无利可图，势必只是昙花一现。
There are three things we need to do to slow and stop global warming:
为抑制全球变暖我们需要做三件事情：
1.More extensive energy conservation.
拓宽能源储备。
2.Encourage nuclear power.
(For the last decade we are effectively telling the world that nuclear power is unsafe and has no reasonable way to dispose of waste.)
鼓励利用核能。
(过去十年我们一直在竭力告知世界核能不安全，尚未有处置核废料的合理方式。)
3.Shale gas as an alternative to coal.
A gas plant emits ½ to ⅓ the CO2 of coal.
将页岩气用作煤炭的替代物。
燃气装置的二氧化碳排放量仅为燃煤装置的1／2到1／3。
Everything else is just frosting. We tend to do fashionable things without caring if it makes sense for the developing world. For example, electric cars, if used in China, would increase their CO2 pollution (since 70% of their electricity derives from coal). And they can’t afford lithium ion autos; the $7500 subsidy for electric cars is for show only; it does not address global warming.
除上述三条外其余的都是花招。大家想要去做时髦事儿却毫不顾及是否会对发展中国家有所裨益。就拿电动汽车的例子来说，如果在中国大面积普及电动汽车将会大大增加他们的二氧化碳排放量（因为中国70%的电能来源于煤炭）；他们也负担不起昂贵的锂电池。中国政府对购买电动汽车补贴7500美元的举措也仅仅是表面功夫，这对遏制全球变暖起不到任何作用。
The problem with the Paris treaty is that it was a political show with no teeth. Countries set their own limits; there is no outside verification. The developing world was enthusiastic in large part because the US had pledged to put $3 billion dollars per year in the sustainable development fund. (China had already indicated that it wanted some of this money to build coal power plants. Their argument was that with the funds they would build more efficient coal plants than they would otherwise build.)
巴黎协定的问题在于它仅是一场毫无效力的政治作秀。参与各国设定自己的减排目标，没有来自外部的核查。发展中国家对此热情高涨很大程度上是由于美国承诺每年给可持续发展基金投放30亿美元。（中国已表示想要争取部分资金用于建设燃煤电站；争议在于中国会建造比原计划更多的高效能燃煤电站。）
My fundamental argument against the Paris treaty is that it gave the illusion of progress, and such an illusion can be detrimental to real progress. Others say it was a small step in the right direction, but it was generally not portrayed that way. And the step was (in my opinion) exceedingly small, too small.
我对《巴黎气候变化协定》的基本观点是它描绘了一个人类在抑制全球变暖上取得进步的虚妄图景，这幅图景会对取得真正的进步产生负面作用。有人说签署巴黎协定是在正确方向上迈出的一小步，但现实情况是实施起来并不会像想象的那样。依我看来，所谓迈出的这一小步简直迈得太小了。
The US needs to have truly workable programs to help the developing world take advantage of concepts in energy efficiency, and to make progress on shale gas and nuclear. On shale gas, at least we are setting a good example, but we need to help China develop its own resources (which are greater than those in the US).
美国需要拥有切实可行的项目来帮助发展中国家认识到提升能源利用效率所带来的裨益，比如在页岩气和核能利用上取得突破性进展。拿美国成功进行大规模开采页岩气来说就是个好例子，但我们还需帮助中国开发他们自己相较于美国更有优势的资源。
We need to set the right example in nuclear by showing that we consider it to be a clean and safe technology. Among other things, we need to make it possible to license 4th generation nuclear plants in the US; they cannot be currently licensed! And we need to make it known to the outside world that disposal of nuclear waste is not a challenge, but is a solved problem.
美国在核能利用上要树立一个好的标杆，告诉全世界这是一项清洁又安全的技术。此外，还需尽快批准建设第四代核电站，它们到现在竟尚未通过审批！我们要告诉全世界，核废料的处理已不再是一项挑战，而是一个已被解决的问题。
（完）
今日の词
:
profitable ['prɑfɪtəbl] adj. 有利可图的
sustainable [sə'stenəbl] adj. 可持续的
dispose [dɪ'spoz] vt. 处理；处置
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