【双语阅读】放弃3%，各省份2025年居民消费价格涨幅目标普降至2%左右

CaixinGlobal财新国际 · 公众号 · · 2025-01-21 17:08

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After two years of near-zero inflation, most Chinese provinces have set their 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth target at around 2%, signaling a shift toward more realistic economic goals amid weak consumer demand and persistent deflation risks.

在连续两年居民消费价格指数（CPI）低位增长后，陆续召开的2025年各省级两会上，绝大多数省份将2025年居民消费价格涨幅目标下调至2%左右。

As of January 20, 2025, some 30 provincial governments had announced CPI targets in their annual work reports. Yunnan was the only exception. Xizang maintained its previous cap of under 3%, Hunan aligned with the national target and Shandong aimed for “reasonable price levels.” The remaining 27 provinces lowered their targets to approximately 2%, a notable departure from the long-standing 3% benchmark.

截至1月20日，2025年31个省份人代会已悉数开幕，云南以外的30个省份均在政府工作报告中，设置了居民价格涨幅目标。除了西藏延续此前的3%以内、湖南提出“涨幅与全国一致”、山东提出“居民消费价格保持合理水平”，其余27个省份均将这一目标设定为2%左右。而此前，全国和各省份居民消费价格涨幅目标通常设为3%左右，个别省份视情况微调为3%以内。

This adjustment suggests the national CPI target — expected to be revealed at the National People’s Congress in March — will also drop to around 2%. Discussions in late 2024 among policymakers already hinted at revising the target downward, given the significant gap between 2024’s actual CPI growth of 0.2% and the 3% goal.

Wang Yiming, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a Beijing think tank, said last year that while the 2024 government work report initially aimed for a CPI of 3%, the actual CPI revealed a significant gap while the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained in negative growth.

Many economists have said that a lower target for 2025 would be a pragmatic choice. A report by China International Capital Corp. described a 2% CPI as more achievable while the Central Economic Work Conference called for a “reasonable price recovery,” aiming to address inflation and demand shortfalls as key priorities for 2025.

中国国际经济交流中心副理事长王一鸣2024年12月末解读中央经济工作会议时也表示，2024年初的政府工作报告确定的价格目标是3%左右，但从实际运行看，全年CPI与预期目标有较大差距，工业生产者价格指数（PPI）仍延续负增长。“所以有人建议，2025年是不是别定得这么高，估计还会差得很远。”

中金公司宏观研报认为，虽然各省份2025年CPI涨幅目标有所下调，但相对于2024年CPI全年0.2%的涨幅来说，“2%左右”的CPI目标更为务实，也更具可操作性。中央经济工作会议要求“物价合理回升”，逐渐弥补通胀缺口和需求缺口将是2025年经济工作的重要方向。

In China’s annual economic planning, CPI targets are indicative rather than binding. Between 2012 and 2020, annual CPI growth typically exceeded 2%, with few exceptions. However, recent trends, influenced by a supply-driven recovery from the pandemic and stronger external demand relative to domestic demand, have led to persistently low-price levels.

CPI growth in both 2023 and 2024 was just 0.2%, while PPI saw two consecutive years of decline. The GDP deflator — a broader measure of changes in price levels compared with the CPI and PPI — remained negative for seven consecutive quarters, raising concerns of a deflationary spiral.

【双语阅读】放弃3%，各省份2025年居民消费价格涨幅目标普降至2%左右

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