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Artificial Intelligence and European Elections

海国图智研究院  · 公众号  ·  · 2025-02-27 08:00

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刊物介绍



《人工智能资讯周报》探讨人工智能对公共政策、治理和政策建议的影响,探索人工智能对商业、政治和社会的影响,以确定潜在的研究领域,探讨可能的合作研究和机构伙伴关系。本刊着重提供中国人工智能发展动态和对人工智能的思考,同时关注全球范围内人工智能相关研究动态。本刊旨在通过可靠的研究,来帮助企业、研究机构和公民预测和适应技术引领的变化。 和成就。自2017年起,每年的5月30日被设立为“全国科技工作者日”,以鼓励和支持科技工作者的创新和贡献。

作者:邹丰如

主编:刘仪



Abstract



Technological solutions in European elections demonstrate a significant trend toward internationalization. On one hand, American technology companies such as Smartmatic, NationBuilder, and Blue State Digital provide extensive technical support. On the other, European countries are gradually developing domestic solutions, such as Estonia’s Cybernetica in internet voting systems, Hungary’s Datadat in data-driven campaigning, and France’s LMP, Digitale Box, and Fédéravox for localized political activities. The positive impacts of these technological solutions include the digitization, efficiency, and convenience of election processes. They also create opportunities for broader citizen participation in political processes, particularly by addressing geographical or physical voting limitations through online platforms. However, these technologies also bring significant risks, especially regarding deepfakes, misinformation, and election interference. Notably, most of these companies are driven by technology rather than political expertise, having been established and operated without the input of political specialists. This disconnect between technology and social realities may exacerbate the political and ethical issues arising from the misuse of technological tools.


Source: Reuters

I.Use of Technology in

European Elections







Electronic Voting Systems

Electronic voting encompasses voting and/or vote counting through electronic means (internet voting). Internet voting, also known as “remote electronic voting” or “online voting,” is usually conducted outside traditional polling stations and before the traditional election day; in other words, it is a geographically and temporally remote voting option, much like postal voting. Recently, electronic voting has been used in Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, France, and the Évora region of Portugal. In Bulgaria, voting machines even sparked political controversy. Countries like Italy, Ireland, and the Netherlands have attempted electronic voting but have since discontinued it.

Estonia: i-Voting, Domestic Technology Solution

Estonia has one of the most advanced electronic voting systems in the world. Internet voting—where voters use their own devices to cast votes remotely—was piloted in 2005. The Estonian Parliament passed legislation allowing voters to authenticate themselves using the Smart-ID application and permitting voting via smartphones and tablets. Due to its efficient and convenient nature, internet voting has become extremely popular. Currently, about one-third of votes are cast via the Internet. The current i-voting system was launched during the 2017 local elections, designed by the Estonian company Cybernetica, and has been continuously improved based on new electronic voting policies. To date, no malicious software or security vulnerabilities have been detected during elections in the country.

Bulgaria: Smartmatic, U.S. Technology Solution

Since 2014, Bulgaria has been rolling out electronic voting nationwide, primarily using hardware, software, and services provided by the American election technology company Smartmatic. The hardware, such as the advanced Smartmatic voting machines, includes multiple layers of security, including tamper-proof data collection, end-to-end encryption, and fully auditable logs. Its “end-to-end” encryption technology prevents intrusion and hacking. The machines also generate auditable paper records to ensure the accuracy of digital ballots. Equipped with 17-inch touchscreens, the machines are user-friendly for many disabled individuals. They also include smart card readers and simple printers. The software, known as the Election Management Platform (EMP), is a solution for managing the entire election process. Comprised of multiple modules, it allows election commissions to coordinate election management tasks. In Bulgaria, EMP helps configure voting machines, count, tally, and merge results, and prepare election progress reports. Smartmatic provides project management for the entire election process, recruitment and training of operators, setting up warehouses and service desks, configuring voting equipment and applications, and establishing counting centres.

In 2021, over 9,500 Smartmatic voting machines were deployed in more than 9,000 voting centres across Bulgaria for each round of national elections. Post-election audits confirmed that the digital results were 100% accurate. In the second round of the presidential election held on November 21, 2021, Bulgaria installed 400 machines in its embassies across 21 countries, marking another milestone. Smartmatic, in collaboration with the Bulgarian company Ciela, provided more than 9,500 electronic touch-screen machines for the 2021 July general elections and the November 2021 joint elections and the presidential election, creating the DZZD Electronic Voting Alliance to manage all critical processes for the successful execution of the project.

Digital-Driven Political and Campaign Technology:

Campaigns are defined in the EU’s Study on the Impact of New Technologies on Free and Fair Elections as “organized efforts during an election period where politicians try to persuade people to vote for them by influencing their decision-making process.” In this process, political parties use various channels and media to reach voters as broadly as possible. In countries like the Netherlands, Norway, France, Italy, Spain, and Germany, scholars and journalists have observed that parties in modern campaigns have used targeted advertising. Some Western European parties have recruited American campaign strategists to professionalize their campaigns, particularly in the use of social media and online political micro-targeting. However, this is often less advanced than in the U.S., or at least not as mature across the Atlantic. Despite doubts about the effectiveness of micro-targeting, research by Almog Simchon and others shows that political micro-targeting in Europe, while limited in its persuasive effect, still holds potential. Companies like CrosbyTextor, Blue State Digital, and Harris Media have worked with multiple European parties, frequently (but not always) collaborating with parties that share similar ideological agendas.

NationBuilder

NationBuilder is widely used globally across different political spectra. The company’s listed clients include Austria’s Junge Linke (Youth Left), the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), and Belgium’s Christian Democratic Party (CD&V). The UK’s Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) revealed that during the 2017 UK general election, up to 200 UK campaign groups used NationBuilder.

NationBuilder offers a suite of tools for tracking supporter behavior, campaigning, and outreach. It can be used for both external voter mobilization and organizing supporters. Its two main features are its database, known as Nation, and its user analysis tool, Political/Social Capital. The database serves as a centralized repository for data from various sources and organizational units. Clients can import supporter data from party internal records, public records, marketing, and online interactions. NationBuilder does not (or at least by default does not) match social media accounts with the email addresses of supporters in the database. Its user analysis tool categorizes and scores activities both within and outside the platform. More than 80 different actions influence the Political/Social Capital metric in the database. Political/Social Capital can be understood as a measure of engagement, influenced by positive interactions like donations, liking Facebook posts, or agreeing to become fundraisers, and negatively affected by actions like violating internal rules.

NationBuilder also offers optional add-ons and customization options. Through integrations with Statara Solutions, Accurate Append, and NamSor, clients can add supplementary data to supporter files. Statara Solutions also provides custom predictive models and analytics to help organizations expand recruitment, fundraising, and outreach. Clients can also integrate with data suppliers via intermediaries, connecting ad workflows to Amazon and Google ads using intermediaries like Pipedream and Zapier.

Although campaigners globally use NationBuilder to promote legitimate causes, it may also be misused for harmful purposes. Research on the global installation of NationBuilder in 2017 identified three suspicious uses: (1) as a tool for inciting hatred or mobilizing against cultural or racial identities; (2) for deceptive advertising or hidden media profiles; (3) for fundraising in corporate journalism.

France

Local digital campaign companies in France include LMP, founded in October 2012, Digitale Box, established in August 2013, and Fédéravox, created in June 2014. Currently, fewer than a dozen companies are involved in the French market, with American company NationBuilder having the most developed and structured internal organization, boasting over 30 business segments related to data, digital, and commercial and territorial development.

These companies offer two main services to clients: data software services and political consulting. The first is data-based software services (e.g., Ecanvasser, DigitalBox, NationBuilder, Liegey Muller Pons, Spallian, and Fédéravox), which require computing and/or statistical skills. The software services vary widely but are mainly focused on targeting features of varying precision. Targeting can be name-based (e.g., in CRM systems such as Ecanvasser, DigitalBox, NationBuilder, Liegey Muller Pons, and Fédéravox). Depending on the complexity of the software, especially the richness of available data in the database, clients can cross-reference different types of information (e.g., GPS coordinates, customer preferences, phone numbers, and socio-demographic data) to optimize campaigns according to their strategy. Typically, the software also offers data visualization features, including maps. When data is insufficiently precise, users can infer data indirectly through predictive models (e.g., P-A. Veillon, Liegey Muller Pons, Fédéravox). The second service is political consulting based on digital tools, including software training (e.g., E. Zuckerman, LMP, Fédéravox). Additionally, some clients offer on-site training (for field workers) to implement campaigns, such as canvassing (e.g., LMP).

l Diversified service providers: Liegey Muller Pons and Fédéravox offer comprehensive services, covering CRM, cartography, targeting, and software training, meeting the varied needs of clients. This integration also enables them to serve a broader client base and gain more value from data integration.

l Companies focused on specific functions: E. Zuckerman and PA Veillon specialize in providing specific services such as targeting and consulting, showing their professional focus in niche markets. Their primary clientele consists of political organizations, indicating their vertical market positioning.

l Technology-driven companies: NationBuilder and Digitale Box not only provide conventional CRM and targeting services but also expand into software engineering and platform strategy development, demonstrating their strong capabilities in technological innovation. These companies are likely better suited for clients who need deep technical support, especially those aiming for data integration and optimization through platform solutions.

The services and data usage types of participants in France’s digital campaigning are detailed as follows:

Nation Builder

Services: Customer Relationship Management (CRM), Targeting, Software Training, Software Engineering Services, and Platform Strategy.

Data usage: Field Data, Socio-economic Data.

E Zuckerman

Services: Cartography, Targeting, Predictive Models, and Consulting (exclusively for political clients).

Data type: Socio-economic Data.

PA Veillon

Services: Targeting, Consulting, and Software Engineering Services.

Ecanvasser

Services: Customer Relationship Management (CRM), Targeting, Software Training, and Platform Strategy.







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