本推文来源：城市地理之光
揭示城际出行方式选择及其决定因素之间的复杂关系，对交通规划和发展具有重要意义。
然而，仍然需要更好地了解影响乘客城际出行综合模式选择的关键影响因素，以及这两者之间的互动和非线性效应。
通过在中国西安这座旅游城市进行实地调查，本研究收集了飞机、高铁、传统火车和快车的城际旅行模式数据，以及乘客属性因素的综合光谱，包括网上售票方式等相对未被探索的因素。
应用XGBoost算法和SHAP分析进行了深入且可解释的效果诊断。
研究结果表明，乘客的社会经济属性和出行行为属性之间存在明显的交互作用。
其中，我们发现在线售票方式在不同人群中发挥着不可或缺的作用。
此外，旅行距离对城际多式联运选择具有最显著的非线性影响；
这表明了一种高度异质的影响效应，并且比城市内部旅行具有更高的敏感性。
这项研究为更好地理解城际出行行为提供了新的证据，并为政策制定者提供了有针对性的区域和国家城际交通规划和管理策略。
Unraveling the complex relationships between intercity travel mode choices and their determinants is valuable
for transport planning and development. However, a better understanding of the key influential factors shaping
passengers’ comprehensive mode choices for intercity travel, as well as the interactive and nonlinear effect
between these two, is still needed. By conducting field surveys in Xi’an, China, a tourist city, this study collected
intercity travel mode data for airplanes, high-speed railway (HSR), traditional trains, and express buses, as well
as a comprehensive spectrum of passengers’ attribute factors, including relatively underexplored factors such as
online ticketing methods. The XGBoost algorithm and SHAP analysis were applied to conduct an in-depth and
interpretable effect diagnosis. The results reveal obvious interactions among passengers’ socioeconomic and
travel behavior attributes. Among them, we find that online ticketing methods play an indispensable role in
different population groups. Additionally, travel distance has the most significant nonlinear effects on intercity
multimodal choices; this demonstrates a highly heterogeneous influential effect and a higher sensitivity than for
intra-city travels. This study provides new evidence to better understand intercity travel behaviors and provides
policymakers with targeted strategies for regional and national intercity transport planning and management.
本研究调查了四
种出行方式——飞机、高铁、火车和特快巴士。
2018年3月的城际客
运活动数据来自中国西安。
我们选择XGBoost来研究城际模式选择，选择SHAP来探索显著变量对城际出行模式的主要影响和相互作用。
更重要的是，我们还揭示了出行距离等关键因素对乘客城际出行方式选择的非线性影响。
本研究的贡献可概括如下：
①本研究全面分析了关键因素对乘客城际出行行为模式选择的互动和非线性影响。
它解决了文献中不发达的空白，并揭示了几个新出现的影响因素的互动效应，这些因素在这个主题上的探索相对较少。
②我们提供了新的证据来补充和支持城际旅行行为研究中非线性调查的主流研究，并关注新兴因素对老年人等社会弱势群体的管理和政策影响。
这些信息对于解决交通规划中的社会和出行不平等问题很有价值。
Four
travel modes—airplane, high-speed rail (HSR), train, and express
bus—were investigated in this study. Passenger intercity travel activity
data for March 2018 were collected from Xi’an, China. We selected
XGBoost to investigate intercity mode choices and SHAP to explore the
main and interaction effects of significant variables on intercity travel
mode. More importantly, we also reveal the nonlinear influence of key
factors, such as travel distance, on passengers’ choice of intercity travel
mode. The contributions of this study can be summarized as follows. ① This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the interactive and
nonlinear effects of key factors on mode choices in passengers’
intercity travel behaviors. It addresses underdeveloped gaps in the
literature and unravels the interactive effects of several emerging
influential factors that have been relatively less explored on this
topic. ② We offer new evidence to supplement and support mainstream
research on nonlinear investigation in the studies of intercity travel
behavior and focus on the managerial and policy implications of
emerging factors with respect to socially vulnerable groups such as
older adults. This information is valuable for addressing the social
and travel inequality issue in transportation planning.
本研究揭示了交通服务与乘客的社会经济和出行行为属性之间的异质互动。
利用从中国西安市收集的数据，通过对飞机、高铁、传统火车和快速公交等城际出行方式的实地调查，以及全面的乘客属性因素，包括网上售票方式等相对未被充分探索的因素，我们发现，对于城际出行，老年人更愿意选择快速公交和高铁，这对改善中国快速公交系统的老年人友好服务具有重要意义。
此外，在线售票方式在不同人群中发挥着不可或缺的作用；
我们将乘客的在线售票行为分为两类，即“航空和高铁”出行和“传统火车和特快巴士”出行。
对于非线性影响，我们发现旅行距离对城际多模式选择的非线性影响最为显著，而所有其他因素的非线性影响在不同的社会经济群体中相对较小。
我们的研究结果可作为制定城际交通市场份额调整策略的支持证据。
例如，鉴于中国日益老龄化的人口，我们在这里发现，在未来的城际交通规划中，应优先考虑在快速公交和高铁交通中提供老年人友好措施的必要性。
This study reveals heterogeneous interactions among transportation
services and passengers’ socioeconomic and travel behavior attributes.
Using data collected from Xi’an city, China, by field surveys regarding
intercity travel modes of airplane, high-speed railway (HSR), traditional
train, and express bus, as well as a comprehensive spectrum of passengers’ attribute factors, including relatively underexplored factors such as
online ticketing methods, we found that for intercity travels, older adults
are more willing to choose express buses and HSR, and this yields
important implications for improving elderly-friendly services in
China’s express bus systems. In addition, online ticketing methods play
an indispensable role in different population groups; we classified passengers’ online ticketing behaviors into two groups, “air and HSR”
travels and “traditional train and express bus” travels. For nonlinear
effects, we found that travel distance had the most significant nonlinear
effects on intercity multimodal choices, whereas the nonlinear effects of
all other factors were relatively minor across different socioeconomic
groups. Our findings could be used as supporting evidence for formulating market share adjustment strategies for intercity transportation.
For example, in the light of the increasing aging population in China,
what we found here suggests that the necessity to provide elderly friendly measures in express bus travel and HSR transportation should
be prioritized in future intercity transport planning.
