美银-关于中国反弹的8个问题

三思行研 · 公众号 · · 2024-10-05 00:16

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           7. 有没有地区轮动的迹象？
          
          在我上周的“痛苦交易”报告中，我指出，除了印度之外，
         
           大多数亚洲市场在中国反弹之前经历了大规模的仓位平仓。
          
         In my "pain trades" note last week, I argued that most Asian markets with the exception of India had seen large positioning unwinds prior to the China rally.
        
         自5月以来，日本已经流出310亿美元，而台湾自5月峰值以来则流出了180亿美元。尽管石破茂获胜，日本股市的表现仍优于印度尼西亚指数，这充分说明了当前的仓位压力。
        
         Japan has seen US$ 31bn outflows since May while Taiwan has lost US$ -18bn since its May peak. The fact that Japanese equities have outperfomed the NIFTY despite Ishiba's win speaks volumes to where the positioning overhang is.
        
         印度销售负责人，年末大量的首次公开募股（IPO）和大宗交易供应，加上外国赎回，可能会超出国内需求的消化能力。我们继续将印度视为融资交易，而日本和TW在此时则较不易受到影响。有趣的是，菲律宾股市是唯一一个对中国轮动免疫的市场。
        
         India sales head, Himanshu Bahuguna, highlights that heavy IPO/block supply into year-end, combined with foreign redemptions might be too much for domestic
        
         demand to digest. We continue to see India as the funding trade for now while Japan/Taiwan are less vulnerable at this point. As an interesting sidenote,
        
         Philippine equities have been the only market that has been impervious to the China rotation.

美银-关于中国反弹的8个问题

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