美银-关于中国反弹的8个问题

三思行研 · 公众号 · · 2024-10-05 00:16

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           7. 有没有地区轮动的迹象？
          
          在我上周的“痛苦交易”报告中，我指出，除了印度之外，
         
           大多数亚洲市场在中国反弹之前经历了大规模的仓位平仓。
          
         In my "pain trades" note last week, I argued that most Asian markets with the exception of India had seen large positioning unwinds prior to the China rally.
        
         自5月以来，日本已经流出310亿美元，而台湾自5月峰值以来则流出了180亿美元。尽管石破茂获胜，日本股市的表现仍优于印度尼西亚指数，这充分说明了当前的仓位压力。
        
         Japan has seen US$ 31bn outflows since May while Taiwan has lost US$ -18bn since its May peak. The fact that Japanese equities have outperfomed the NIFTY despite Ishiba's win speaks volumes to where the positioning overhang is.
        
         印度销售负责人，年末大量的首次公开募股（IPO）和大宗交易供应，加上外国赎回，可能会超出国内需求的消化能力。我们继续将印度视为融资交易，而日本和TW在此时则较不易受到影响。有趣的是，菲律宾股市是唯一一个对中国轮动免疫的市场。
        
         India sales head, Himanshu Bahuguna, highlights that heavy IPO/block supply into year-end, combined with foreign redemptions might be too much for domestic
        
         demand to digest. We continue to see India as the funding trade for now while Japan/Taiwan are less vulnerable at this point. As an interesting sidenote,
        
         Philippine equities have been the only market that has been impervious to the China rotation.
        
           8. 那现在做什么交易？
          
         在中国重新开市后，做多中证500（CSI 500）或中证1000（CSI 1000）的离岸掉期交易或交易所交易基金（如ASHR/ASHS），做多中国小巨人指数（MLHKCHLG）和中国技术本地化指数（MLHKCTLC）。考虑做空中国消费（MLHKCHCO）、中国房地产（MLCNPROP）或中国银行（MLHKCHBK），以削弱香港市场的上涨势头。
        
         Long CSI 500 or CSI 1000 on swap or ETFs traded offshore (ASHR/ASHS) Long China little Giants (MLHKCHLG) and Long China technology localization
        
         (MLHKCTLC) once China reopens. Consider shorting China consumer (MLHKCHCO), China property (MLCNPROP) or China Banks (MLHKCHBK) to fade the rally in HK.