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裕元集團: 業績盈喜上半年高增

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-08-09 18:07

正文

Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings

(0551 HK)


業績盈喜上半年高增


24H1E positive alert: YY expects robust profit growth of at least 115% yoy while adidas eased inventory pressure


BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

公司發佈正面盈利預告

公司預計24H1歸母淨利同增115%-120%至1.80-1.84億美元;其中24Q2歸母淨利爲0.80-0.84億美元,同增143%-156%。 盈利增加主要系全球鞋履行業逐漸回暖,公司製造業務的鞋履產能需求暢旺,疊加低基期效應。


此外,公司24H1並無產能調整的相關費用,去年同期因產能調整產生一次性費用約 0.2億美元;


同時,公司24H1出售聯營公司部分股權產生一次性收益約0.24億美元,帶來正面貢獻。


24H1E positive earnings alert: net profit rose 115-120% yoy as market recovered

Key metrics: Yue Yuen (YY) issued a profit alert to inform investors that it will report net profit of USD180-184m in 24H1E, increasing 115-120% yoy, with 24Q2E contributing USD80-84m, up 143-156% yoy. The earnings spike was mainly due to the recovery of the global footwear industry, which drove up footwear capacity demand in YY’s manufacturing business, as well as a low comparative base.


Expenses: in terms of expense management, capacity adjustment expenses were absent in 24H1E — 23H1 data were dragged by a one-time USD20m expense relating to capacity adjustments.


One-off gain: YY partially disposed of its stakes in associate companies, which led to a one-off gain of about USD24m, greatly boosting profits.


靈活調度產能帶動復甦,降本增效持續推動利潤增長

公司透過靈活調度產能以及有序加班計劃,帶動製造業務產能利用率及鞋履出貨量的良好復甦。但由於部分廠區配合加班趕工推高利用率,疊加新增產能爬坡,導致產能負載未達均衡。


此外,公司致力於推行降本增效計劃,疊加低基期效應,從而帶動利潤的穩健增長。公司將增強其經營韌性,打造高度敏捷而靈活的營運模式,輔以綜觀全局的人力與產能提升計劃,以平衡需求、訂單排程及勞動力供應,進而提升產效。


Operations: capacity flexibility, cost and efficiency efforts drove up profit growth

Elastic capacities: YY’s capacity scheduling flexibility and good overtime planning generally bolstered manufacturing capacity utilization and footwear shipments, despite uneven capacity loads with new production capacities in the ramp-up phase so that some factories had to work overtime to push up utilization rates.


Cost cuts: other factors that helped drive a steady profit growth trend were implementations of cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, as well as a low yoy base effect.


Outlook: the company is looking to strengthen operational resilience to create a nimble operating business model, which would be complemented by a holistic program to boost manpower and ramp up capacity. This would help balance the factors in play like demand, order scheduling and labor supply.


大客戶Adidas庫存壓力大幅緩解,利好核心供應鏈

公司大客戶Adidas此前發佈財報,24Q2收入58.2億歐元,同增11%(貨幣中性);預計全年收入實現高個位數增長。截至24/6/30,Adidas庫存爲45.4億歐元,同減17%(貨幣中性),庫存壓力大幅緩解,利好供應鏈廠商,裕元有望受益。


Major customer adidas: inventory pressure relief bolsters YY’s core supply chain

YY’s major customer adidas released 24Q2 earnings with revenue at EUR5.82bn, up 11% yoy on a currency neutral basis. adidas now expects full-year revenue will grow at a high-single-digit pace. The good news for supply chain manufacturers like Yue Yuen is that adidas eased inventory pressures; its inventory shrank 17% yoy (currency neutral) to EUR4.54bn as of 30 June 2024.




投資建議/Investment Ideas


維持盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

我們維持盈利預測,預計公司FY24-26年收入分別爲86.45億美元、96.45億美元、109.35 億美元;歸母淨利分別爲3.8億美元、4.2億美元、4.6億美元;EPS分別爲0.24美元/股、0.26美元/股、0.29美元/股;對應PE分別爲6x、6x、5x。


Valuation and risks

We maintain our forecast for Yue Yuen at revenue of USD8.65bn/9.65bn/10.94bn in FY24/25/26E, with net profit at USD380m/420m/460m, implying EPS of USD0.24/0.26/0.29 and corresponding to 6x/6x/5x PE. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 市場競爭環境加劇風險;法律合規及企業管治風險;資訊科技及數據安全風險;品牌客戶集中度風險;經濟及社會環境風險;現僅爲盈利預告,請以公司最終報告爲準。


Risks include: intensifying competition; legal compliance and corporate governance risks; IT and data security risks; brand customer concentration risks; and economic and socio-environmental risks. Note: our forecasts are only for reference and are subject to the release of the company’s final results.


Email: [email protected]

TFI research report website:

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