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卓越教育集團: 業績靚麗兌現,頭部機構合規優勢顯現

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-08-27 17:52

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China Beststudy Education Group

(3978 HK)


業績靚麗兌現,頭部機構合規優勢顯現


Robust 24H1E results: market frontrunner gains edge as a benchmark for restructure and regulatory compliance

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

公司發佈2024年中期業績公告

24H1公司收入3.2億元,同增68.1%;歸母淨利0.5億元,同增160.7%;扣非歸母淨利0.5億元,同增203.7%;合約負債4.6億元,同增116.5%;毛利率45.0%,同增8.0pct;淨利率16.5%,同增6.0pct。


業績大幅增長主要系①23H1市場需求恢復緩慢致低基數;②公司完成素質轉型後,產品深受家長和學員認可。


分業務看,24H1全日制複習收入1.2億,同增19.7%;輔導項目0.8億,同增31.9%;素質教育1.2億,同增320.9%。


Robust 24H1E results: revenue up 68%, net profit up 170% on margin expansion

Key metrics: Beststudy Education recently published unaudited 24H1E results:

•Revenue rose 68.1% yoy to RMB317.44m in the first half;

•Net profit was RMB54.42m, an increase of 170.0% yoy;

•Ex-nonrecurring net profit was RMB50m (no-decimal rounding here and below), up 203.7% yoy;

•Contract liabilities amounted to RMB458.43m, up 116.5% yoy;

•Gross margin was 45.0%, up 8.0 ppt yoy, and net margin was 16.5%, up 6.0 ppt yoy.


Factors: the company attributes the substantial growth mainly to:

•the low base in 23H1, when demand was weaker on a slow market recovery;

•market demand due to parents and students’ recognition of its quality product restructure.


Earnings breakdown:

•Full-time review: RMB120m in 24H1E, up 19.7% yoy;

•Consultation: RMB80m, up an increase of 31.9% yoy;

•well-rounded education was RMB120m, an increase of 320.9% yoy.


緊跟教育政策方向,堅守合規底線

公司秉承教育初心,積極響應並落實雙減政策精神,堅守合規經營底線。24H1,公司經部省市區各級檢查累計65次,實現零處罰警示記錄,獲得高度認可;公司積極推進獲取廣州地區非學科類營利性辦學許可牌照的步伐,持牌合規經營保證公司業務更具有發展持續性。


產品合規方面,公司深入貫徹“雙減”政策,優化課程設置,注重課程內容的科學性和適宜性,嚴禁超前超標教學,確保課程符合學生認知發展規律。2022年在教育主管部門的指導下多個產品實現素質轉型,是廣東省首批通過非學科鑑定的素質類產品,2024年全部通過複覈。


我們認爲,本輪雙減後行業合規門檻或將顯著提高,供給側持續查處違規作坊,有利於規範企業提高集中度;同時,政策和監管始終都鼓勵合規運營,全國及地方頭部機構優勢顯現,有望成爲地區機構轉型及合規標杆。


Market frontrunner: restructuring and licensing add long-term benefits

Business raison d’etre: Beststudy revamped its learning content and curriculum structures in cognizance of the spirit of China’s educational policy regulations. The 2021 double-curbs policy sought to reduce twin burdens on Chinese children in the form of excessive homework and after-school tuition. On its part, Beststudy has undergone 65 ministerial, provincial and municipal reviews without incurring penalties or warnings, a feat acknowledged by consumers in demand terms. We reckon the company’s clean record is the result of a core belief that licensed and compliant operations translate into business sustainability. It is now pushing on to obtain a for-profit nonacademic school license in Guangzhou.


Curriculum restructure: to reshape product content that complies fully with the dual-curbs policy, Beststudy worked under Education Ministry guidance to put in place:

•A curriculum framework with a scientific basis and appropriate course content.

•No excessive teaching outside of schedule or standards;

•Curriculums that fit students’ learning capacities according to the law of cognitive development.


Thus, Beststudy revamped several products into the nonacademic category and they passed certification in 2022, the first batch in Guangdong Province to do so, after which all other products cleared certification in 2024.


Rigorous regulation: in the wake of the 2021 double-curbs policy, we believe regulatory hurdles will be raised in the education industry. We expect the supply market will continue to undergo regulatory reviews to screen out noncompliant service providers. This would benefit regulated companies through tightening market concentration. The advantage of national and regional market players has emerged as policies and regulations encourage compliant business operations. We expect industry leaders will provide benchmarks for business restructure and regulatory compliance for regional educational institutions.


聚焦核心素養培養,素質轉型成果顯著

公司持續優化素質產品服務,聚焦於文學、科學素質等核心素養的培養,開設有“卓越編程”、“嘀嗒文學”、“文學美育”等9個素質產品,以上產品均屬於廣東省首批通過教育主管部門非學科鑑定的素質類產品。


公司基於對素質教育體系的持續研究,提出孩子生長的“六力模型”,發佈“鯤鵬少年生長營項目”,採用互動式和探究式等先進教學方法,獲社會及學生高度認可,助力打造素質教育品牌形象,爲公司轉型提供重要保障。


Research-based core restructure to personal development electives

Product launches: Beststudy continues to optimize its nonacademic personal development course products and services. To inculcate literary and scientific literacy in its core coverage, it launched nine courses including Excellence in Programming, TikTok Literature and Cultural Literary Aesthetics. They are the first batch of nonacademic products in Guangdong Province that cleared reviews by the Education Ministry.


New methodologies: further research by the company into nonacademic education led it to propose the Six Forces Model to nurture children’s development. Its Kunpeng Junior Growth Camp initiative uses advanced teaching methods like interactivity and exploration, which have been well received by students and other consumers. The project has helped build up Beststudy’s brand profile as a proponent of premium nonacademic education services and adds credibility to its business restructure.



投資建議/Investment Ideas



上調盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

公司素質轉型獲高度認可,持牌合規經營保證可持續發展。鑑於公司24H1表現靚麗,我們上調盈利預測,預計公司2024-26年全年收入分別爲8.8億人民幣、15.3億人民幣、18.3億人民幣(原值分別爲6.9億人民幣、10.3億人民幣、12.8億人民幣);調後淨利分別爲1.8億人民幣、2.8億人民幣、3.4億人民幣(原值分別爲1.5億人民幣、2.4億人民幣、3.1億人民幣);EPS分別爲0.21元人民幣/股、0.33元人民幣/股、0.40元人民幣/股(原值分別爲0.17元人民幣/股、0.29元人民幣/股、0.36元人民幣/股);PE分別爲12、8、6X。


Valuation and risks

Beststudy’s pivot to nonacademic courses has gained market recognition and its licensed operations ensure sustainable development, in our view. Factoring in robust 24H1E results, we raised our forecast to revenue of RMB880m/1.53bn/ 1.83bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB690m/1.03bn/1.28bn); with adjusted net profit at RMB180m/280m/340m (previously RMB150m/240m/310m). EPS moves to RMB0.21/0.33/0.40 (from RMB0.17/ 0.29/0.36) and PE to 12x/8x/6x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 政策風險,新業務風險,管理風險,運營成本上升風險,公司流通市值較小風險等。


Risks include: policy, new business and management risks; rising operating costs; and small-cap stock risks.


Email: [email protected]

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