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裕元集團: 製造端訂單能見度好轉,毛利率逐季提升

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-03-20 13:10

正文

Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings

(0551 HK)



製造端訂單能見度好轉,毛利率逐季提升


2023 results review: manufacturing business had good order visibility and drove a quarterly gross margin uptrend

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

公司發佈2023全年業績公告

23Q4收入19.04億美元,同減4.7%;歸母淨利1.37億美元,同增422.9%;


2023年收入78.90億美元,同減12.0%;歸母淨利2.75億美元,同減7.3%;


分品類,運動/戶外鞋全年收入40.41億美元,同減17.4%,佔比87%;休閒鞋和戶外涼鞋全年收入6.16億美元,同減24.5%,佔比13%;鞋底、配件及其他收入4.02億美元,同減19%;

分渠道,全渠道收入佔比27%,加盟店收入佔比21%,泛微店收入佔比13%;直營店和其他佔比52%。


公司23年毛利率24.4%,淨利率5.12%


23年公司毛利率24.4%,同增0.57pct;淨利率5.12%,同增0.47pct;銷售、分銷及管理費率18.26%,同增0.45pct;


23年派發末期股息每股0.90港元,股息配息率73%,含1500萬美金股份回購。


2023 results: revenue and profit downtrends despite Q4 net profit spike of 423%

Key metrics: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (YY) released 2023 results: in the last quarter, although revenue fell 4.7% yoy to USD1.90bn, net profit shot up 422.9% yoy to USD137m in 23Q4. Meanwhile, full-year revenue amounted to USD7.89bn, down 12.0%, and net profit also fell 7.3% to USD275m. Granular revenue perspectives follow:


Product categories:

•Sports and other shoes fell 17.4% to USD4.04bn (87% of total revenue)

•Casual footwear and sandals generated USD616m, down 24.5% (13% of revenue)

•Insoles, accessories and other products brought in USD402m, down 19%.


Channel proportions: omnichannel business accounted for 27% of revenue in 2023; franchised stores at 21%; pan-WeChat stores at 13%; while directly managed and other stores accounted for 52%.


Margins: YY delivered gross margin of 24.4% in 2023, widening 0.57ppt, while its net margin widened 0.47ppt to 5.12%; sales, distribution and administrative expense ratio was 18.26%, 0.45ppt higher than the year before.


DPS: the company paid out a final dividend per share of HKD0.90 in 2023, amounting to a 73% payout ratio, including a share repurchase of USD15m.


製造業務毛利率逐季提升,降本增效成果顯著

製造業務23年收入50.59億元,同減18.4%,毛利率19.2%;分季度,製造業務23Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4毛利率分別為16.8%/17.9%/19.3%/22.8%,毛利率逐季改善。


分地區,美國地區仍為製造業務主要收入來源,佔比27.8%;中國大陸佔比17.7%;歐洲地區佔比25.5%;其他地區佔比29.0%。

鞋履出貨量方面,23年總出貨量2.18億雙,中國大陸出貨量佔比12%,越南佔比34%,印尼佔比49%,其他地區佔比5%。


產能利用率來看,23全年產能利用率為79%,23年同減8pct,23Q4環比及同比增加6pct。我們梳理裕元製造業務月度營收,月度增速分別為-25%(23年1月)、-6%、-21%、-25%、-11%(23年5月)、-24%、-24%、-20%(23年8月)、-29%、-17%、-10%、-2%(23年12月)以及24年1月的12.5%,24年2月的-12.2%。


Manufacturing: quarterly gross margin uptrend; revenue mom downtrend

Margins: gross margins in the manufacturing business grew quarter after quarter on the company’s effective cost reduction and efficiency improvements. Manufacturing revenue amounted to RMB5.06bn in 2023, down 18.4%, on gross margin of 19.2%. Quarterly gross margins paced upward at 16.8/17.9/19.3/22.8% in 23Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4.


Market regions: the US continues to be YY’s main manufacturing revenue stream and accounted for 27.8% of total revenue in 2023; while China comprised 17.7%, Europe 25.5%, and other regions 29.0%.


Footwear shipments: YY shipped 218m pairs of footwear in 2023: 12% from China, 34% from Vietnam, 49% from Indonesia, and other regions accounted for 5%.


Capacity utilization: the company utilized 79% of production capacity in 2023, 8ppt less than the year before, even with Q4 expanding 6ppt in both qoq and yoy terms.


Monthly revenue trend: we sorted mom revenue growth in YY’s manufacturing business and found a downtrend in each of the 12 months, falling 25% in Jan, 6% (Feb), 21% (March), 25% (Apr), 11% (May), 24% (Jun), 24% (Jul), 20% (Aug), 29% (Sep), 17% (Oct), 10% (Nov) and 2% (Dec). Thereafter the trend briefly turned upward by 12.5% in Jan 2024, before falling 12.2% in Feb.


Expenses: sales, distribution and administrative ratio in YY’s manufacturing business increased 0.8ppt in 2023, although it fell 1.4ppt qoq in Q4.


降本增效成果顯著,費用管控抵消經營反槓桿、效率提升

23年製造業務銷售、分銷及行政費率同比增加0.8pct,23Q4環比23Q3減少1.4pct;

其中,寶勝零售業務精簡及升級實體店鋪網絡、提升人效,銷售提升帶來經營槓桿作用,積極推動租金控管及降本增效。


寶勝淨利率同比提升1.5pct,折扣同比改善

寶勝零售23年收入28.31億美元,同增2.3%,毛利率33.7%,同減4.0pct;淨利潤同增403%,淨利率同增1.5pct;公司嚴控折扣,23年折扣比例同比改善,尤其在23Q4,23Q4毛利率達35.7%。


寶勝全渠道運營打通、擴大出海口

寶勝為世界知名運動品牌於大中華地區最大零售商及運動服務提供者之一。寶勝採用精細化運營,直營店達3523家,同減13.9%,收入佔比73%,單品店達3506家,多品店17家;全渠道包括B2B及B2C,總佔比達27%;其中,公域包括第三方平臺(天貓、京東、唯品會等)上,使用庫存共享機制貢獻日增。私域包含泛微店生態圈及會員服務,泛微店穩定的基礎具備更高轉換率、回報率及當季正價銷售,23年全年泛微店貢獻線下直營零售銷售達20.9%(佔總13.4%),跨區覆蓋庫存全打通。


寶勝通過庫存通與業務夥伴策略同盟,庫存改善,提高效益及現金週轉

通過與品牌合作伙伴高效存貨共享、商品共享平臺、個人數位化助理,提高管理效率及現金週轉。庫存水平同減22.5%,老舊庫存佔比小於8%,客單量同比持平及客單價同比增加中單位數。

精緻化零售策略精簡及升級實體店鋪網絡,提升整體效益。平均門店月單產、坪效均同比增加雙位數以上顯著增長;平均店鋪面積同增高單位數,總銷售面積同減高單位數;

寶勝加速數位化轉型,泛微店增長強勁,泛微店收入同增40%,佔總營收達13.4%,貢獻線下直營銷售20.9%。


Retail: Pou Sheng upped operating leverage and streamlined inventory flows

Increased operating leverage: YY’s subsidiary Pou Sheng, which runs its retail business, streamlined and upgraded the physical store network, improved labor efficiency and increased sales, increasing operating leverage as well as improving rental leverage, costs and efficiencies in 2023. It also implemented efficiency improvements.


Net margin up 1.5ppt in 2023 and discount rate improved: Pou Sheng generated retail revenue of USD2.83bn in 2023, up 2.3%, with gross margin at 33.7%, down 4.0ppt. Net profit rose 403% and net margin increased 1.5ppt. It tamped down discounting and improved discounting rates in 2023, especially in Q4, when gross margin came to 35.7%.


Omnichannel operations and exports expanded: Pou Sheng is one of Greater China’s largest retailers and sports service providers with world-renowned sports brands. It runs closely managed operations at 3,523 directly-operated stores, 13.9% fewer than the year before, which contributed 73% of revenue in 2023: they comprise 3,506 single-category stores and 17 multi-category stores. Omnichannel coverage includes both B2B and B2C, which together make up 27% of the business. For sales in the public domain, it uses third-party platforms like Tmall, JD.com and Vipshop, whose contributions increased via an inventory-sharing mechanism. Sales driven by private domains include the pan-WeChat ecosphere and its membership services. Pou Sheng’s pan-WeChat store has sound fundamentals, with high conversion rates and return rates, as well as new-season regular priced sales every quarter. The online pan-WeChat store drove business offline and contributed 20.9% of directly-operated retail store sales in 2023 (accounting for 13.4% of the total sales), effecting full inventory pass-through with cross-regional coverage.


Inventory sharing: Pou Sheng strategic alliance with brand partners employs inventory pass-through, which improves inventory flows through merchandise sharing platforms and personal digital assistants. Inventory levels shrank 22.5% yoy in 2023, with old inventories at less than 8%. Customer order volumes were unchanged, while customer orders increased by a mid-single-digit.


Streamlined retail strategy: the company upgraded the physical store network and boosted average per-store monthly order output and efficiency per sq m by more than a double digit in 2023. Average store area increased by a single digit, while total sales area reduced by a single digit.


Digital revamp: Pou Sheng pushed a digital restructure, driving a 40% revenue increase in 2023 at its pan-WeChat stores, which accounted for 13.4% of total revenue and contributed 20.9% to offline direct sales.




投資建議/Investment Ideas


調整盈利預測,維持“買入“評級

伴隨線下客流恢復與品牌持續去庫,公司製造業務與零售業務均在穩步恢復中;數字化轉型進展迅速,智能工廠賦能生產滿足短交期靈活需求;寶勝為大中華區領先的運動服裝和鞋類產品零售商及經銷商,藉助YYsports微信小程序推行ExP會員計劃,提供多元化的運動服務內容。考慮到下游訂單增長或仍需時間,我們小幅調整24-25年盈利預測,預計公司24-26年收入分別為86.45/96.45/109.35億美元(24-25年前值分別為93.12/103.97億美元),歸母淨利分別為2.96/3.48/4.02億美元,(24-25年前值分別為3.40/3.96億美元),EPS分別為0.18/0.22/0.25美元/股,對應PE分別為8/7/6X。


Valuation and risks

As shopper footfall recovers in offline stores and brands continue destocking, we expect YY’s manufacturing and retail businesses will continue to come back in steadily. We see it ramping up a digital restructure, with smart factories enhancing production to offer flexible customer requirements and fulfill short delivery turnarounds. We consider as well Pou Sheng’s Greater China retailer and distributor leadership in sportswear and footwear. Its YYSports and WeChat mini-programs, through its ExP (energy x power) membership plan, drive diverse sports services and content. And we reckon downstream order growth will need time to recover. Hence, we nudged down our 2024/25E forecasts. We now project revenue of USD8.65bn/9.65bn/10.94bn in 2024/25/26E (vs USD9.31bn/10.40bn in 2024/25E previously), with net profit at USD296m/ 348m/402m (previously USD340m/396m in 2024/25E). This implies EPS of USD0.18/0.22/0.25, corresponding to 8x/7x/6x PE. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 品牌客戶集中度風險;市場競爭環境加劇風險;跨市場比較相關風險;法律合規及企業管治風險;資訊科技及數據安全風險;經濟及社會環境風險。


Risks include: brand customer concentration; intensifying competition; cross-market comparison risks; legal compliance and corporate governance risks; information technology and data security risks; economic and social environmental risks; and subjectivity of estimates.


Email: [email protected]

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