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At the moment,
each plastic
reacts
best at a different temperature, and
the one
that the team uses for the mixture
corresponds
to the most recalcitrant of the reactions.
目前，每种塑料都有不同的最佳反应温度， 该团队使用的温度是针对最顽固的塑料的最佳温度。
In the 1970s, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman showed the power of the anchoring effect. In a landmark study, the researchers found that spinning a wheel of fortune in front of participants and anchoring them with random numbers influenced their answers to simple questions, like “what is the percentage of United Nation countries in Africa?”
20世纪70年代，心理学家阿莫斯·特沃斯基和丹尼尔·卡尼曼展示了锚定效应的力量。在一项具有里程碑意义的研究中，研究人员发现，在参与者面前转动幸运轮，并给他们固定随机数字，这会影响他们对一些简单问题的答案，例如“在非洲，联合国成员国的比例是多少?”
Studies show that anchoring effects persist no matter how weak the connection between the anchor and the actual decision. One study found that “estimates of an athlete’s performance were influenced by the number on his
jersey
.” In other words, people thought that an athlete with a higher jersey number was better than an athlete with a lower number, all else being equal.
研究表明，无论锚点与实际决策之间的关系有多弱，锚定效应都会持续存在。一项研究发现，“人们预测一个运动员的表现会受到他球衣上数字的影响。”换句话说，在其他条件相同的情况下，人们认为球衣号码更大的运动员，比球衣号码更小的运动员表现更好。
Anchoring affects all kinds of decisions, even those made by experts who should know better. In particular, a recent study shows that anchoring is far more prevalent in the financial world than previously believed, with substantial anchoring effects influencing performance in the stock market.
Led by
a team at Ghent University, the study showed that investors valued firms more highly if the firms had higher stock prices. This occurred even after controlling for factors like the number of stocks available and other issues of corporate
governance
.
锚定效应会对各种各样的决定造成影响，甚至是由那些本应更了解情况的专家所做出的决定。尤其是最近有一项研究表明，锚定在金融领域的流行程度远远超出了之前的想象，大量的锚定效应影响着股市的表现。由根特大学的一个团队领导的研究显示，如果一家公司的股价越高，投资者对它的估值越高。即使在控制了流通股数量和其他公司治理问题等因素后，这种情况依然存在。
There are
ways out of
anchoring. The first step is gaining clarity around the data. When we are clearer about the evidence, we are less likely to get hoodwinked. When it comes to a big decision, for instance, I often write down all the factors involved. Writing down the information helps me evaluate its reliability and eliminate anchors that aren’t relevant.
有很多方法可以摆脱锚定。首先，是清晰地掌握所有数据。当我们对证据更加清楚时，我们就不太可能上当。例如，当涉及到一个重大的决定，我经常写下所有相关因素。写下这些信息可以帮助我评估它们的可靠性，消除不相关的锚点。
My friend Alex Clavel, the Head of Corporate Strategy at Softbank, recognizes the usefulness of anchoring in negotiations.
He encourages his team “to use anchoring proactively to convince other parties at the negotiating table that somehow our ‘anchor’ should be the basis of discussions.”
For example, during a negotiation session, I may begin by talking about a part of the contract that’s already been settled in my opponents’ favor. With this “win” in the
forefront
of their minds, my opponents may be more likely to make concessions once we move on to unsettled matters.
我的朋友亚历克斯·克拉维尔，软银的企业战略主管，他看出了锚定在谈判中的作用。
翻译划线句，长按文末小程序码打卡，答案下期公布~
例如，在谈判过程中，我可能会从合同中已经达成的对我的对手方有利的部分开始谈。他们脑海中有了“胜利”的印象，一旦我们进入到一些未决事项，他们就更有可能做出让步。
本文节选自：Harvard Business Review（哈佛商业评论）
发布时间：2022.08.30
作者：Helen Lee Bouygues
原文标题：Don’t Let Anchoring Bias Weigh Down Your Judgment
英/ ˈdʒɜːzi /美/ ˈdʒɜːrzi /
n.（足球、橄榄球等运动员穿的）运动套衫；毛衣，套头毛衣；棉（毛）质柔软织物；泽西种乳牛（Jersey）；泽西岛（Jersey）
英/ ˈɡʌvənəns /美/ ˈɡʌvərnəns /
