近日，特朗普的贸易代表团七人来华谈判，市场将这次谈判称为“群鹰毕至”，此举也是美政府对华强硬态度的一贯写照。谈判结果我们不得而知，但早在此次谈判前，“美方阵地”已经狼烟四起。除了老生常谈的美中逆差导致美方制造业工作岗位流失，美方再次提出，中国的经济体系会对世界创新生态系统造成损害，并将美国专利申请数量的下降，归咎于中国进口。
中国影响了美国的创新能力？
翻译：邓小雪&黄倩霞
校对：鲁城华
策划：高浦铭
Fears that China has hurt innovation in the West are overblown
担心中国会损害西方创新是杞人忧天
本文选自
The Economist
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POPULAR concern about free trade with China has focused on the loss of manufacturing jobs in America and Europe. Policymakers have an additional worry: that China’s rise is hurting innovation in the West. This fear is among the small set of issues that unites American Democrats and Republicans.
在与中国进行自由贸易方面，一般人担心的都是欧美制造业工作岗位的流失。决策者还有一个担忧：中国崛起会损害西方的创新，这在一系列的问题中都有所体现，也是共和民主两党共同关注的焦点。
In 2016 Barack Obama’s commerce secretary said that China’s state-driven economy would weaken the world’s innovation ecosystem. Donald Trump’s advisers allege that China makes it harder for foreign firms to invest in innovation by squeezing their returns. Mr Trump’s trade team was expected to raise this complaint, among others, with Chinese officials during talks in Beijing on May 3rd and 4th, as
The Economist
went to press. There is one problem. Data suggest that competition with China has coincided with more innovation in America, not less.
2016年，奥巴马的商务部长表示，以国企为导向的中国经济可能会对世界创新生态系统造成损害。特朗普的顾问宣称，中国通过挤压利润率来阻止外国公司在中国进行创新投资。特朗普的贸易团队打算在5月3、4两日与中国官方进行谈判时提出这件事情。然而有一个问题，数据显示，与中国竞争为美国带来了更多创新，而非减少。
The relationship between competition and innovation is complex, even before considering trade with China. Economists agree that the right competitive landscape fosters innovation. But they disagree about what exactly that landscape looks like. More competition might prod companies to try harder to develop new products in the hope of gaining market share. Alternatively, if competition is
cut-throat
, profits might evaporate to the point that companies have little incentive to take risks.
即便不考虑与中国的贸易，竞争与创新的关系也很复杂。经济学家认为，合理的竞争环境能加强创新，但他们对于合理的环境到底是什么样子难以达成一致。更多竞争可能会激励公司开发新产品以获取市场份额。但如果竞争
过于激烈
，
利润缩水，公司就不会有足够的动力去承担风险
。
cut-throat
['kʌtθrəʊt] a cut-throat activity or business involves people competing with each other in an unpleasant way竞争激烈的；残酷竞争的
The fear is that China gene
rates the wrong kind of competition and stunts the good kind. Businesspeople elsewhere worry that when the Chinese government decides to fund this or that industry, investment soars and margins collapse. Overcapacity in steel was caused in part by Chinese investment in steel processing; semiconductor firms think their industry might be next. At the same time, argues Robert Lighthizer, the US Trade Representative, foreign companies that beat their Chinese competitors are not adequately rewarded because China presses them to transfer their intellectual property.
人们害怕中国会鼓励恶性竞争而遏制良性竞争。外商担心如果中国政府决定补贴某一产业，则投资飙升，利润下滑。钢铁行业的产能过剩一部分原因就是由于中国对于钢铁加工的投资；半导体公司认为他们将是下一个钢铁业。与此同时，美国贸易代表Robert Lighthizer认为，在中国投资的外国公司并没有获得足够的回报，因为中国通过压制他们来转移知识产权。
The two main academic papers on this question looked at the years around China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001. Far from settling the matter, they were contradictory. Economists studying European companies found that competition from Chinese imports both caused firms to improve their technology and led to a shift in jobs to the most advanced firms. They concluded that 15% of the upgrading of technology in Europe between 2000 and 2007 could be attributed to the increase in imports from China. But economists examining the impact on America argued that, on the contrary, Chinese competition had led companies to spend less on research as profits fell. They calculated that imports from China explained 40% of a slowdown in American patenting between 1999 and 2007, compared with the preceding decade.
两篇相关的学术论文对2001年中国加入世贸组织前后的几年进行了重点研究。但这两篇论文得出的结论自相矛盾，并没有解决这个问题。研究欧洲企业的经济学家发现，中国进口造成的竞争一方面促使企业技术升级，另一方面推动就业岗位向先进企业转移。报告推断2000年至2007年间，欧企15%的技术升级可归功于中国进口的增长。但中国进口对美国的影响则刚好相反，经济学家称中国的竞争令美国企业利润降低，因此研发投入减少。与前十年相比，1999年至2007年间，美国专利申请数量下降了40%，他们将这归咎于中国进口。
The IMF has now weighed in with more recent figures. Its conclusion is rather more cheerful, at least for those who think a trade war with China is a rotten idea. In a report published in April the fund showed that, following an extended period of decline, high-quality patents granted to American companies had risen sharply between 2010 and 2014. It also pointed to a big increase in American spending on research and development during the same years—even as America’s trade deficit with China rocketed (see chart). The growth in patents was more sluggish in Europe and Japan. But both patents and research spending soared in South Korea, the country most directly exposed to manufacturing competition from China.
世界货币基金组织（IMF）用最新数据说明了这个问题。IMF的结论至少对那些反对与中国贸易战的人来说，更鼓舞人心。据IMF四月发布的报告显示，美企获得的专利数量经历了长时间的下降之后，于2010年至2014年间明显增多。这段时间内美企的研发投入也大幅上升。此时，美国与中国的贸易逆差是大幅上涨的（见表格）。欧洲和日本的专利数量增长相对迟缓。但韩国作为与中国制造业竞争最激烈的国家，专利申请数量与研发投入显著增多。
A separate IMF working paper late last year unpicked some of what is happening in America. Competition from Chinese imports has caused research spending to be reallocated within certain industries, away from also-rans
and towards the most productive and profitable firms. At the same time, many researchers left manufacturing industries and moved into service sectors such as data-processing and finance. Both results are consistent with an American economy that is playing to its strengths. The IMF’s analysts concluded that Chinese imports were not a threat to innovation in America, after all, and that policymakers could take a deep breath. No loud inhaling sounds have yet been reported from the White House.
