专栏名称: 天风国际
天风国际是天风证券境外全资子公司,立志于成为全球资产配置专家,用我们的专业专注力连接中外,为海内外客户寻找最优质资产和提供最专业的投资咨询。
目录
相关文章推荐
彬彬有理  ·  《哪吒2》爆火的原因,很残忍 ·  昨天  
中国基金报  ·  刚刚!5000亿央企,重组大动作! ·  3 天前  
中国基金报  ·  突发!俄罗斯遭袭 ·  3 天前  
51好读  ›  专栏  ›  天风国际

華孚時尚: 堅持主業、共享產業、發展新業

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-06-11 16:58

正文

Huafu Fashion

(002042 CH)


堅持主業、共享產業、發展新業


d/g to ACCUMULATE: sticking with yarn in tough market while ramping up value chain integration and new forays

ACCUMULATE (from BUY)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

公司發佈2023年年報及24年一季報

24Q1收入39.24億同減13.4%;歸母淨利0.13億元,同減74%; 23Q4收入26.11億元,同增125.4%;歸母淨利-0.18億元,同增97.2%;扣非歸母-2.72億元;23A收入136.63億元,同減5.5%;歸母淨利0.67億元,同增119%;扣非歸母-2.5億元。


RMB13m net profit in 24Q1E; RMB250m ex-nonrecurring net loss in 2023

Huafu Fashion released its final 2023 earnings report and unaudited 24Q1E results:

•24Q1E revenue came to RMB3.92bn (down 13.4% yoy) and net profit slumped 74% yoy to RMB13m.

•23Q4 revenue was RMB2.61bn (up 125.4% yoy), with net loss of RMB18m (up 97.2% yoy) and ex-nonrecurring net loss of RMB272m.

•2023 revenue was RMB13.66bn (down 5.5%) and net profit was RMB67m (up 119%), with ex-nonrecurring net loss at RMB250m.


收入及業績減少 系紡織行業面臨的外部環境複雜嚴峻,國內疫後消費復甦乏力,地緣政治衝突、大國博弈加劇等導致原料價格波動、海外需求萎縮、內生動力不足、國際訂單轉移,行業運營質效承壓。公司積極攻堅克難,抓住市場結構性增長的機會,創新求變,整體出現邊際改善。


Key factors: challenging macro-economy amid geographical competitive shifts

We would attribute the revenue and profit downtrends to the difficult and complex macro environment faced by the textile industry even after the pandemic. China’s consumption market is struggling to recover against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and intensifying competition among major economies. The factors include fluctuating raw material prices, shrinking export demand, insufficient endogenous growth momentum, along with geographical shifts in international orders, all of which affected the quality and efficiency of industry operations. Huafu Fashion managed marginal improvements overall by tapping structural growth opportunities in the market as it innovated for change.


分品類, 紗線收入58.44億元,同減2.23%,毛利率6.03%,同減0.83pct;網鏈收入74億元,同減7.86%,毛利率1.65%,同減0.69pct;襪製品收入3.75億元,同增8.04%,毛利率21.41%,同減5.32pct。


分地區, 境外收入16.39億元,同增3.01%,毛利率10.06%,同減6.3pct;境內收入119.8億元,同減6.15%,毛利率3.25%,同減0.13pct。


23年毛利率4.2%,同減0.97pct;淨利率0.51%,同增3.04pct。


23年總費率5.6%,同減0.42pct。其中,銷售費率0.8%,同減0.03pct;管理費率2.6%,同減0.05pct;財務費率1.3%,同減0.42pct;研發費率0.83%,同增0.07pct。


We look at Huafu’s revenue streams in 2023:

Business categories

•Yarn: revenue amounted to RMB5.84bn (down 2.23%), with gross margin at 6.03% (down 0.83ppt).

•Network chain business: revenue came to RMB7.4bn (down 7.86%) and gross margin was 1.65% (down 0.69ppt).

•Hosiery: revenue was RMB375m (up 8.04%) and gross margin was 21.41% (down 5.32ppt).


Market regions

•Exports: revenue was RMB1.64bn (up 3.01%) and gross margin was 10.06% (down 6.3 ppt).

•China: revenue was RMB11.98bn (down 6.15%) and gross margin was 3.25% (down 0.13ppt).


Profitability:

•Gross margin fell 0.97ppt to 4.2%, while net margin expanded 3.04ppt to 0.51%.

•Total expense ratio was at 5.6% (down 0.42ppt): sales at 0.8% (down 0.03ppt), admin at 2.6% (down 0.05ppt), financial at 1.3% (down 0.42ppt) and R&D at 0.83% (up 0.07ppt).


繼續實施“堅持主業、共享產業、發展新業”戰略主題

2024年,國內經濟有望延續回升向好態勢,國內外市場需求改善將有利於市場回升,進一步促進行業營收和利潤修復。同時,公司2024年會繼續實施“堅持主業、共享產業、發展新業”的戰略主題,在穩健發展紗線主業的同時,深化推進前端網鏈,加速發展後端網鏈,同時,算力作爲新業,公司將着力打造上虞 AIGC 智算中心項目及阿克蘇城市公共算力平臺項目,建成後將通過加強與高校、科研院所、行業各領域優勢企業合作,提供算力租賃服務。


Three-pronged strategy: main business; industry integration; new businesses

We expect market improvements will come through as the Chinese economy continues to recover. Returning Chinese and export demand would aid the market recovery and boost industry revenues and profits. Huafu on its part will continue to drive a three-pronged strategy: building out the core yarn business, while driving industry integration as well as developing new businesses in 2024E. In integrating the industry value chain, it aims to add traction in the frontend network chain, while pacing up the backend network chain. The new businesses include the Shangyu AIGC intelligent computing center project and the Aksu City public computing power platform project. When the projects are completed and commence operation, Huafu will provide computing power leasing services and strengthen cooperation with universities, research institutes and leading companies in various segments of the industry.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


調整盈利預測,調整爲“增持”評級

公司作爲全球最大的色紡紗製造商和供應商之一,主營中高檔色紡紗線,配套提供高檔新型的坯紗、染色紗,同時提供流行趨勢、原料與產品認證、技術諮詢等增值服務。通過色彩、材質、工藝技術的集成創新,爲客戶提供優質的產品和服務。公司在堅持主業的同時,共享產業,以紗線貫通紡織服裝產業,整合棉花種植、棉花加工、倉儲物流、花紗交易、紡服供應鏈,實現前後端產業貫通,致力成爲全球紡織服裝產業時尚營運商。考慮到紡織行業乏力現狀,我們調整盈利預測,預計公司24-26年歸母淨利分別爲1.08/2.08/3.06億元(24-25年前值分別爲4.99/7.48億元),EPS分別爲0.06/0.12/0.18元/股,對應PE分別爲65/34/23X。


Valuation and risks

As one of the world’s largest color-spun yarn manufacturers and suppliers, Huafu mainly deals in high-grade color-spun yarn and also provides high-grade new types of grey and dyed yarn. Value-added services include consultation on fashion, raw materials, product certification and technical aspects. The company provides premium products and services by integrating innovations in color, materials and process technologies. Under a three-pronged strategy, other than its main yarn business, Huafu’s industrial integration business establishes linkage across different segments of the textile and garment value chain: yarn with textiles and apparel, as well as cotton planting and processing, warehousing and logistics, and including yarn trading. In this way, it covers both the front and back ends of the supply chain. The company aims to become a fashion business operator in the global textile and garment industry. In valuing the stock, we considered the current weak textile market and adjusted our forecast: we project RMB108m/ 208m/306m net profit in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB499m/748m in 2024/25E), implying EPS of RMB0.06/0.12/0.18 and with PE at 65x/34x/23x. We downgrade our rating to ACCUMULATE (from BUY).


風險提示: 原材料價格波動風險;政治博弈帶來訂單波動風險;人民幣匯率;公司經營風險等。


Risks include: raw material price fluctuations; order fluctuations from global political agendas; RMB FX risks; and operational risks.


Email: [email protected]

TFI research report website:

(pls scan the QR code)





文件







请到「今天看啥」查看全文