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从昨晚开始就不断有朋友在后台联系，咨询高盛交易台的电话会究竟说了什么，传到最后，会议内容也出现了好几个不同的版本，真真假假在市场上变成了各类小作文。本文对会议的主要内容进行了梳理，需要完整内容的机构朋友可以联系高盛官方销售开通入会权限。Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'm today's host via Joe from Goldman's Hong Kong equity sales debt. So this morning, PBOC surprise the market with a larger than expected using package. They announce a series of easing measures, including 20 basis point primary policy rate cuts, 50 basis points, a triple R cuts and a 50 basis point existing mortgage rate cut. And then, oh, we, we'd, we definitely see the Hansen index close up 4% today, which is a big rally.
大家下午好。感谢大家参加今天的会议。我是今天的主持人，来自高盛香港股票销售债务部的乔。今天上午，中国人民银行出乎市场意料地推出了超预期的一揽子宽松政策。他们宣布了一系列宽松措施，包括20个基点的初级政策利率下调、50个基点的三R下调和50个基点的现有抵押贷款利率下调。然后，我们看到恒生指数今天收盘上涨 4%，这是一个大反弹。So today we have our China economist Li Shenwang, China Strategy Fusi, China Property Analyst Wang Yi, and Sales Trader Fed in to join us to discuss our current view post the monetary policy and also what investor flow and feedback we have on the China market.今天，我们请到了中国经济学家、中国战略分析师、中国房地产分析师和销售交易员，与我们一起讨论当前货币政策后的观点，以及投资者对中国市场的看法和反馈。
政策能满足哪些预期？
So first of all, with Li Shen, I guess like your team and also market has been discussing or expect in this monetary easing for quite a while given the domestic weak demand. But what exactly are meeting the expectations here from the policies?首先，李申先生，我想，鉴于国内需求疲软，您的团队和市场对货币宽松政策的讨论或预期已经有一段时间了。但政策究竟能满足哪些预期？Yeah, thanks. Yeah, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for having me. So from today's announcement, we do see, you know, the PBOC tried so hard to wake the market up. September ends. We think the overall background is that, you know, the larger than expected Fed rate cuts create a favorable external environment, reducing PBOC's concern on FX stability. But in China, we do have a continued weakness in domestic demand. That's why PBO see and a few other government bodies appear to be more willing to do easing.好的 谢谢大家下午好谢谢你们邀请我。从今天的公告中，我们确实看到，人行极力唤醒市场。九月结束了。我们认为，总体背景是，美联储降息幅度超出预期，创造了有利的外部环境，降低了人行对外汇稳定性的担忧。但在中国，内需确实持续疲软。这就是为什么人行和其他一些政府机构似乎更愿意采取宽松政策。If you look at the details of this easing measures, we see the magnitude of triple a cuts and policy rate cuts beat market and our expectation modestly. You know, before the PBOC's announcement, our previous expectation was, you know, 25 beeps Jabar cuts plus 10 beeps policy rate cut towards the end of this year. But, you know, the PPOC announced 50 beats cheaper cuts and Governor Pan also give a heads up saying there could be another 25 to 50 beeps to park at by the end of this year. You know, the tribal cuts is, you know, almost three times of our previous expectation.如果你看一下这次宽松措施的细节，我们会发现三连降和政策利率下调的幅度小幅超出了市场和我们的预期。要知道，在人行宣布之前，我们之前的预期是在今年年底前下调25个基点，再加上下调政策利率10个基点。但是，你知道，人行宣布了50降息，潘行长也提了个醒，说到今年年底可能还会有25到50降息。要知道，几乎是我们之前预期的三倍。Well, for the rate cuts, you know, it was done by 20 beeps larger than 10 beeves expect did by US and markets. So the magnitude was a surprise. But if you look at the cast to existing mortgages, we do believe it's largely in line with market speculation several weeks ago, Bloomberg reports mentioning there could be a two step reduction to existing mortgages by a total of fi 80 beeps. So the 50 beeps cuts to existing mortgages should serve, as you know, largely in line with market expectation. But to protect the bank net interest margin, tboc also pledged to lower deposit rates by 20 to 25 beeps. So the impact on the overall banking sector should be largely neutral. But you know, triple cuts itself will definitely inject at least RMB 1 trillion long term liquidity into the banking system to support a credit extent.要知道，降息的幅度比美国和市场预期的 10 大 20 个。因此，幅度之大令人吃惊。但如果你看一下现有抵押贷款的投放，我们确实认为这在很大程度上与几周前的市场猜测一致，彭博社的报道提到可能会对现有抵押贷款进行两步下调，总计下调80个基点。因此，如你所知，对现有抵押贷款削减 50 个基点的做法应与市场预期基本一致。但为了保护银行的净息差，TBOC 还承诺将存款利率下调 20 至 25 个基点。因此，这对整个银行业的影响应该基本上是中性的。但要知道，三连降本身肯定会向银行体系注入至少 1 万亿元人民币的长期流动性，以支持信贷规模。Mention final point is that the format of the basket of easing measures, this also, you know, slightly surprise press markets. We have the deal cuts to both triple R and policy rates, which was pretty rare in recent years. We also got, you know, several sort supportive measures for, you know, list company's cashback back the share backbag and also, you know, to improve non bank financial institutions.最后要提到的是，一揽子宽松措施的形式也让市场略感意外。我们有削减和政策利率的交易，这在近年来是相当罕见的。我们还得到了，你知道，几个排序的支持措施，你知道，上市公司的现金回购股份，还有，改善非银行金融机构。So taken this together, we think this is a, you know, modest beat market expectations. But after this, we do believe policymakers, you know, and also some investors, they focus more on the next stage of easing. In our view, demand side easing will be quite crucial, especially on, you know, physical and housing. Easy.因此，综合来看，我们认为这是一个适度超出市场预期的结果。但在此之后，我们相信政策制定者，还有一些投资者，会更加关注下一阶段的宽松政策。我们认为，需求方面的宽松政策将相当关键，尤其是在实物和住房方面。别紧张。Thank you, Li Shen. I guess the next question would definitely be anything more we can expect? And in terms of you view, any specific measures are needed to really turn things around?谢谢你，李申。我想下一个问题肯定是我们还能期待什么？在你看来，是否需要采取任何具体措施来真正扭转局面？
具体的措施扭转局面
Yeah, sure. Thanks. Yeah, for this question. So in addition to this policy easy measures announced this morning, we expect 1:25 beeps trip are cut in queue for largely in line with Governor pans heads up. We also expect central government and local governments to fulfill this year's bond issuance quota, which means bundle net issues should remain solid in September and October. We believe there should be more funding and implementation arrangements to facilitate the housing destocking you know of. At least for this year, PPC has not announce the. psl quota to support housing dis discord。Working or maybe the three major projects in the public sector. Besides given, you know, falling tax and land sales revenue in recent months, we also see increased opportuni, increased possibility for the government to tape unspend bond issues quota accumulated from previous years. And there's also a slight chance for the government to revise the physical budget if needed.是的，当然。谢谢是啊，这个问题。因此，除了今天上午宣布的政策宽松措施外，我们预计行程在很大程度上与潘的一致。我们还预计中央和地方将完成今年的债券发行额度，这意味着9月和10月的捆绑净发行应保持稳健。我们认为，应该有更多的资金和实施安排来促进你们所知道的住房去库存化。至少在今年， 还没有公布支持住房的 PSL 额度。此外，鉴于最近几个月税收和土地出让收入的下降，我们也看到政府有更多的机会、更多的可能来利用往年积累的未用完的债券发行配额。如果需要的话，政府也有可能修改实际预算。You know, last year in October, the national people's come. Congress sending committee revise up the fiscal deficit I in the year and issuing an additional RMB one trading central governors bond to support some infrastructure projects. We think if s top leaders feel increased urgency to do more physical easing, revising the budget could be one, you know, physical put option. And for 2025, we also maintain our forecast. There could be 25 beeps to markets and 2 to 10 beats a pass rate cuts. And we expect fiscal deficit to remain pretty supportive regardless of us election risk because you know, for this year, we do see very weak domestic demand, but the tailwind from export may not be so sustainable.要知道，去年 10 月，大会来了。派出委员会修改了当年的财政赤字，并增发了一笔人民币交易央行债券，以支持一些基础设施项目。我们认为，如果高层感到更有必要采取更多的实物宽松政策，那么修改预算可能是一个实物投放的选择。对于 2025 年，我们也维持预测。市场可能会出现 25 次bp，2 到 10 次降息。我们预计，无论选举风险如何，财政赤字都将保持相当的支持性，因为你知道，就今年而言，我们确实看到国内需求非常疲软，但出口的 "尾风 "可能不会那么持续。Besides, regarding the effectiveness of policy easing, we do think the PBOC announcement today is helpful, but monetary easing alone is not a game changer without demand side stimulus, this may only perform as pushing on a string.此外，关于宽松政策的有效性，我们确实认为中国人民银行今天的声明是有帮助的，但如果没有需求方面的刺激措施，仅靠货币宽松政策是无法改变游戏规则的，这可能只能起到推波助澜的作用。So that's why for coming months or so, it's very crucial to track up Ministry of Finance, NDRC and say council very closely to see any upcoming signals on, you know, demand side stimulus. We think, you know, just a very rough estimates if policy makers really want to turn things around, they at least need stimulus package of above RMB 5 trillion with RMB three trading to help, you know, hosting this docking on B1 trading to help local governments about their debt repayment. And another RMB one trading or more to support the, you know, household balance sheet recovery. But at this stage, you know, with still short of funding. So fundamentally key question is, you know, show me more money.因此，在未来几个月左右的时间里，密切跟踪财政部、发改委和院的动向至关重要，以了解即将出现的需求刺激信号。我们认为，你知道，只是一个非常粗略的估计，如果制定者真的想扭转局面，他们至少需要 5 万亿元人民币以上的刺激计划，其中包括三笔人民币交易，你知道，托管交易，帮助地方政府偿还债务。另外还需要一个或更多的人民币交易来支持家庭资产负债表的恢复。但在现阶段，你知道，资金仍然短缺。所以从根本上说，关键问题是，给我更多的钱。And into year ends, what's the events we should watch out for or the timelines in terms of policies possibly you can coming out.进入年底，我们应该注意哪些事件，或者你们可能出台的政策的时间表。
年底前关注的东西
Thanks. Yeah, regarding this question, so in October, although there's no confirm dates for major events, but we do see increase the client interest in, you know, October political meeting plus next National People Congress Standing committee meeting because, you know, occasionally the October part of meeting, policymakers can, during that period, policymakers can discuss micro and policy. The most recent October policy Bill meeting where policymakers discuss micro and policy was in 2018, not anytime soon. But if they focus on this area, we may see more easy signal from that events well around the final week of October or even early November, we may have the next NPC sending committee meeting. You know, last year on October the 24th, top leadership revise up the fiscal budget and approve the additional RB one trading CGB issuance if they want to do so. This could be a potential window. But you know, US election will be on November the 5th. That's a tradeoff for them to convince the event early or later.谢谢。是的，关于这个问题，在 10 月份，虽然没有确定重大事件的日期，但我们确实看到客户对 10 月份的会议和下一次全国大会委员会议的兴趣有所增加，因为，你知道，偶尔在 10 月份的部分会议上，制定者可以，在此期间讨论微观和政策。最近一次决策者讨论微观和政策的 10 月政策法案会议是在 2018 年，不是很快。但如果他们关注这一领域，我们可能会看到更多来自这一事件的轻松信号，好在 10 月的最后一周甚至 11 月初，我们可能会迎来下一次全国委员会会议。要知道，去年 10 月 24 日，最高层修改了财政预算，并批准增发 RB One 交易 CGB（如果他们想这么做的话）。这可能是一个潜在的窗口期。但要知道，美国大选将于 11 月 5 日举行。对他们来说，这是一个说服事件发生早晚的权衡。Well, beside these events for China, the next major policy meeting window will be mainly in December, including the December policy meeting, usually around the first or second week of December, plus a central economic work conference, which usually falls on, you know, mid to late December. So watch out for that events. But besides this, there's also a possibility for the State Council. No, and you know, the different ministries to hold some ad hoc meetings. Even for today's announcement, it was held by, you know, the State Council information Office ad hoc meeting. The name is to support China's high quality growth. If policymakers are in a rush to announce some major easy measures, there could be a repeat of this morning's experience. So, you know, it's a quite uncertain but worth tracking closely.除了中国的这些事件外，下一个重要的会议窗口将主要在12月，包括12月会议，通常在12月的第一周或第二周左右，还有经济工作会议，通常在12月中下旬。所以要注意这些事件。除此之外，国院也有可能召开会议。不，你知道，不同的部委也会召开一些特别会议。即使是今天的公告，也是由国院新闻办公室召开的特别会议。名义上是支持中国的高质量增长。如果制定者急于宣布一些重大的宽松措施，可能会重蹈今天上午的覆辙。所以，你知道，这是一个相当不确定但值得密切跟踪的问题。Thank you very much, Li Shen. Next, Yi, I guess as a China property analyst, you have seen quite some policy eating on the property sites in the past 1,2 years, but the impact on is very limited. What's your view now post this property using policy coming out? Do you think it's enough to boost the physical markets?非常感谢，李申。接下来，易先生，我想作为一名中国房地产分析师，您在过去的一、两年中看到了不少政策对房地产的影响，但影响非常有限。这次房地产使用政策出台后，您有什么看法？您认为这足以推动房地产市场的发展吗？
关于房地产
Yeah, I, I bottom line, I think this round of policy measures is still, I would say it's a positive, but it's still far from enough. So if I can break down each of the announcement related to the housing measures.是的，我的底线是，我认为这一轮的政策措施仍然是积极的，但还远远不够。所以，如果我能把与住房措施相关的公告逐一细分的话。Firstly, cut down payment for second home buyers. So the down payment for first time and the second home buyers are now the same at the 15%, but we don't think that the, this going to be very effective on the back of still very negative property price expectation on the supply and demand imbalance and household, the leveraging trend on challenging job market and wage growth outlook.首先，降低二次购房者的首付比例。目前，首次购房者和二次购房者的首付比例相同，均为 15%，但我们认为，在供需失衡、家庭杠杆化趋势、就业市场和工资增长前景充满挑战的背景下，对房地产价格的预期仍然非常消极，这种做法不会非常有效。Meanwhile, we also think that the banks will be prudent about executing high LTV mortgage lending on rising for closure pressure. The second one is raising relanding quota from 60 to 60% to hundred percent. You as you can tell that the incremental skill increase for this, you know, local SOE by inventory will increased from previous 500 billion to 600 billion, affecting this ratio in change. And also because of the lower rates, the blended rates for the whole, you know, lending to local SOEs will be about to two point, 2.25% versus previous 2.4 to 2.5%. So that helps given that this getting closer to the rental yield, but still given the execution remains, in our view, quite challenging in terms of what types of property to buy. And also don't forget the rental yield doesn't count in vacancy. So if it's a vacancy adjusted, the rental yield, it could be even lower. So I think not only the skill is still far from enough, but also the rate is not lower enough as starting point in terms of inventory reduction.同时，我们也认为，在倒闭压力上升的情况下，银行会审慎执行高按揭成数的按揭贷款。其次是将重置配额从 60% 到 60% 提高到 100%。可以看出，地方国企的增量技能增加，存量将从以前的 5000 亿增加到 6000 亿，影响了这一比例的变化。另外，由于利率降低，整个对地方国有企业贷款的混合利率将从之前的 2.4%至 2.5%降至 2.25%。因此，这有助于提高租金收益率，但在我们看来，就购买何种类型的房产而言，执行起来仍颇具挑战性。另外，别忘了租金收益率并不计入空置率。因此，如果调整了空置率，租金收益率可能会更低。因此，我认为不仅技术还远远不够，而且作为减少库存的起点，租金也不够低。As we analyzed before, we need the government take a first step with a two training package. To clear about 10% of total sellable inventory available in the primary market, not to mention a rising supply in the secondary market. Cut interest rate for existing mortgage is actually still below, I think, our expectation. Previously, we expect 200 fi, 50 billion interest saving from cutting existing mortgage rate. And now it's according to governor, it's 150 billion.正如我们之前分析的那样，我们需要政府迈出第一步，开展两项培训计划。清理一手房市场约 10%的可售库存，更不用说二手房市场不断增加的供应量。现有房贷利率的下调实际上仍低于我们的预期。此前，我们预计现有抵押贷款利率下调可节省 2,000 亿至 500 亿美元的利息。而现在，根据行长的说法，是 1500 亿。But we understand this could be just the first step that the government might do more to revise the existing mortgage landing rate. But still in terms of interest rate, interest expense saving for this hundred fifty balance, only 2 to 3% of urban household disposal income or about less than 1% of, you know, retail sales. So the impact on consumption probably still quite limited and it's probably also not going to reverse the prepayment, the pressure given a still huge gap between a revised down mortgage rate and, you know, a deposit rate for five years.但我们知道，这可能只是第一步，政府可能会采取更多措施来修改现有的抵押贷款利率。但就利率而言，为这一百五十万余额节省的利息支出，仅占城市家庭处置收入的 2%至 3%，或约占零售额的不到 1%。因此，鉴于下调后的房贷利率与五年期存款利率之间仍然存在巨大差距，对消费的影响可能仍然相当有限，而且也可能无法扭转预付款的压力。What's new in all these mesh measures announced is allowing policy banks and commercial banks to support the land reserve buy back. So previously, it was a local government special bond allowed to buy back existing land reserve, although we haven't seen much execution. But now this expanded to policy banks and commercial banks as the plan at the moment.在已公布的所有这些网状措施中，允许政策性银行和商业银行支持土地储备回购是一个新举措。因此，以前是允许地方政府专项债券回购现有的土地储备，虽然我们还没有看到太多的执行。但现在，根据目前的计划，这将扩大到政策性银行和商业银行。So without execution details, we think that the, it's still quite early to assess the impact, but I think there might be follow up from the government. This should be our next focus in terms of the, what government will do to, excuse me, to be balanced supply and demand more quickly. And in terms of what is in line, actually extend operational insurance rules and 16 measures is something I think you know is in line given developer's liquidity conditions year today in the weak physical market conditions. So the extension of the raw maturities that previously set at the end of this year is kind of in line. So overall, we think this set of new measures is incrementally helpful but is still far from enough to turn around housing market.因此，在没有执行细节的情况下，我们认为现在评估其影响还为时尚早，但我认为政府可能会采取后续行动。这应该是我们下一步关注的重点，即政府将采取哪些措施，以更快地实现供需平衡。至于什么是符合规定的，实际上，考虑到开发商的流动性状况，在如今实物市场疲软的情况下，延长运营保险规则和16项措施是符合规定的。因此，延长之前在今年年底设定的原始到期日也是符合要求的。因此，总体而言，我们认为这一系列新措施是渐进式的，但仍远远不足以扭转房地产市场。Cool. Thank you, Yi si. I guess the common question I had today from investor is that basically, we have seen this movie before many times. China rallied on this like Po Po policy support and then faded afterwards on continuous week fundamentals. Do you see anything different this round?真酷谢谢你，Yi si。我想今天投资者提出的共同问题是，基本上，我们已经看过这部电影很多次了。中国在政策支持下反弹，然后在连续一周的基本面支持下回落。你觉得这一轮有什么不同吗？
这一次的不同
Yes, this time I think definitely it's pretty rare for us to have such a conference joint have by three leaders together and announce both monetary policies, property policies as well as equity market policies together. So this gesture definitely send a very strong policy easing signal. That's what we see is different from previous round of policy easing.是的，这次我认为，三位领导一起召开这样的联合会议，同时宣布货币政策、房地产政策和股市政策，这对我们来说绝对是非常罕见的。因此，这一姿态无疑发出了非常强烈的政策宽松信号。这就是我们所看到的与前几轮宽松政策不同的地方。The other thing is we also notice that this in terms of policy directions, they're to the point according to our recent marketing feedback. We see the key investor concerns are still around property. Definitely, investors are looking forward to have more policy easing or stimulus to s effectively stabilize the property markets. So besides what we had from the April political meeting, definitely people are hoping to have more. So that's why today's announcement, I think it's also helpful.另外，我们还注意到，根据我们最近的市场反馈，在政策导向方面，这些政策是切中要害的。我们看到，投资者关注的重点仍然是房地产。毫无疑问，投资者希望有更多的宽松政策或刺激措施来有效稳定房地产市场。因此，除了四月份的政治会议之外，人们肯定还希望有更多的政策出台。因此，我认为今天的声明也很有帮助。On the other hand, especially for China onshore investors, the lack of capital inflows is another challenge they're facing, especially if we look at a mutual funds, new capital raising is pretty low over the past one years. So definitely retail sentiment is low. So for the Asian market particularly, we see limited source of inflows. Foreign buying is also limited. So if we look at the recent policies announce around the equity market, definitely they are providing different sources of capital to support the market, including bringing long term capital and also in terms of providing the liquidity provision program that will provide liquidity either through the financial institutions or through the corporates. So definitely, we have more capital can be used to buy equities. So this is also parts positive and welcomed by investors.另一方面，特别是对于中国的在岸投资者来说，资金流入不足是他们面临的另一个挑战，尤其是如果我们看一下共同基金，在过去的一年里，新的资金募集量相当低。因此，散户的情绪肯定很低落。因此，特别是在亚洲市场，我们看到流入资金来源有限。外国购买也很有限。因此，如果我们看看最近围绕股票市场宣布的政策，它们肯定会提供不同的资金来源来支持市场，包括引入长期资本，以及提供流动性供应计划，通过金融机构或企业提供流动性。因此，我们肯定有更多的资金可以用来购买股票。因此，这也是积极的部分，受到投资者的欢迎。But coming back to the market, whether we will have a sustainable Riley from the current level, what we believe is we still need more support from the physical side. That is not discussed today. So we will continue monitoring in the following weeks whether we will see more policy on the physical side. And the other thing is from the company perspective, we hope to see more fundamental improvement in terms of earnings delivery. If we look at the HR market over the past two quarters, earnings is pretty weak. We have around 0% earnings growth over the past two quarters, so that is challenging. So that is what we hope to have in a longer term that after all the policies, we need to see the effectiveness.但回到市场上来，我们是否会从目前的水平持续上涨，我们认为我们仍然需要来自实物方面的更多支持。今天没有讨论这个问题。因此，在接下来的几周里，我们将继续关注实物方面是否会有更多的政策出台。另外，从公司的角度来看，我们希望在盈利方面看到更多的基本面改善。如果我们看看过去两个季度的人力资源市场，盈利相当疲软。过去两个季度，我们的盈利增长约为 0%，所以这很有挑战性。因此，从长远来看，我们希望在所有政策出台后，能够看到成效。But on the positive side, if we look at the current market valuation as well as investor positioning, both are at the low end. If we look at the investor positioning currently, headfunds only allocate 6.8% in Chinese equity, which is the five year low level, even lower be than the February, March level and around one percentage point lower than the April and may peak level. So that means there's still much room for them to raise their allocation. And also, if we look at the valuation for mscr China, even after today's rally, mscr China is only trading at 9.3 times pe, still around 10% below our fair PD forecast. And if the recent policy could even reduce the risks and equity risk premium, that means we may have more room for valuation to rerate.但从积极的一面来看，如果我们看看目前的市场估值和投资者定位，两者都处于低位。如果我们看一下投资者目前的定位，头部基金在中国股票市场的配置比例仅为6.8%，这是五年来的最低水平，甚至低于2、3月份的水平，比4、5月份的峰值水平低了约一个百分点。因此，这意味着他们仍有很大的空间来提高配置比例。此外，如果我们看一下中国移动的估值，即使在今天的反弹之后，中国移动的市盈率也只有 9.3 倍，仍然比我们的公允市盈率预测低 10%左右。如果近期的政策甚至可以降低风险和股票风险溢价，这意味着我们可能有更大的估值上升空间。So these are the positive things that may provide more upside for investors. So that's why we think this time, at least from the signal perspective, the policies are still quite important. But what, but we need to see more follow UPS.因此，这些积极因素可能会为投资者带来更多的上升空间。所以我们认为，至少从信号的角度来看，这次的政策还是相当重要的。但是，我们需要看到更多的后续 UPS。Thank you. I guess like next would be what to buy. So in terms of the sector preference and themes, what's your view now?谢谢。我想接下来就是买什么了。那么在行业偏好和主题方面，你现在有什么看法？
接下来买什么
Yeah, as I mentioned that fundamental is still important. So for us, we still believe in the near term, each shares may out, may have a larger chance to outperform a, because of stronger fundamental. If we look at the internet sector and all the offshore stocks in aggregate, they still deliver more than 10% earnings growth over the past two quarter compare to around zero earnings growth for a shares. And also from the liquidity perspective, if the US Fed rate cut can bring more foreign capital back to the equity market, that may benefit offshore stocks more than onshore. These are the important factors in the near term that may continue supporting it shares. But in the longer term, we believe the onshore capital market reforms, including boosting shareholder return. This time, they also mention to have market value management.是的，正如我提到的，基本面仍然很重要。因此，对我们来说，我们仍然相信，在短期内，由于基本面较强，每只股票都可能有更大的机会跑赢A股。如果我们看一下互联网行业和所有离岸股票的总体情况，它们在过去两个季度的盈利增长仍然超过 10%，而 A 股的盈利增长大约为零。此外，从流动性的角度来看，如果美国联邦储备委员会降息能让更多的外国资本重返股市，那么离岸股票可能会比在岸股票更受益。这些都是短期内可能继续支持离岸股的重要因素。但从长期来看，我们认为在岸资本市场的改革，包括提高股东回报。这一次，他们还提到要有市值管理。So from the valuation perspective, that will be helpful for Asia's in the longer term. In terms of sectors, we continue like internet sector and also in terms of themes, companies with strong shareholder return either through dividend paying or through backbacks, we still like them marginally if we can see more fiscal policy stimulus, then we would recommend investors to marginally add more cyclic cost docs to their portfolio. And more recently, the trading program, which is also on track. Many investors are seeing some positive improvements in terms of the consumption after the policy announced, so that's why we also see increasing interest in the consumer space. So these are the sectors we keep an eye on right now.因此，从估值的角度来看，这对亚洲的长期发展会有帮助。在行业方面，我们继续看好互联网行业，在主题方面，通过派息或回购获得丰厚股东回报的公司，如果我们能看到更多的财政政策刺激，我们仍然会略微看好这些公司，然后我们会建议投资者在其投资组合中略微增加更多的周期性成本文件。最近，交易计划也在按计划进行。在政策公布后，许多投资者都看到了消费方面的一些积极改善，因此我们也看到人们对消费领域的兴趣越来越大。因此，这些都是我们目前关注的行业。Got it. Lastly, Faden, as our sales trader, I guess you got so many question ask today on what's flow do you see? Is it more hedge fund like short covering or we definitely s where we see any lonely come in? Like what's the flow we see?知道了最后，法登，作为我们的销售交易员，我猜你今天有很多问题要问，你看到了什么流动？是更多的对冲基金像空头回补，还是我们肯定会看到任何孤注一掷？我们看到的流动情况如何？Sure. Hey, thank you very much. And yeah, do a good, you know, appreciate Li Sheng and Seafu's note here. I think, you know, starting in the morning, I guess myself included the feedback initially as the press conference was underway, you know, a lot of the skeptism, right, especially expectations were pretty low. Like you said, we've seen this movie before, you know, especially when the PBOC governor started talking about triple our rate cuts, you know, policy rate cuts, a mortgage refi smoothly youngs and around the floor.当然，嘿，非常感谢。是的，做得很好，你知道，很感谢李胜和海夫在这里的说明。我觉得，你知道，从早上开始，我想包括我自己在内，在新闻发布会进行的最初阶段，你知道，很多人都持怀疑态度，对吧，尤其是期望值很低。就像你说的，我们以前看过这部电影，你知道，特别是当人行行长开始谈论我们的三倍降息，你知道，政策性降息，抵押贷款再融资顺利。I think buyers only started to pay real attention here after the market continue to rally following the mention of 800 billion renminbi of initial liquidity support for the market. And also, I think more importantly here, a plan for potential market stabilization fund.我认为，只有在提及为市场提供 8000 亿人民币的初始流动性支持后，市场继续反弹，买家才开始真正关注这里。此外，我认为更重要的是，潜在的市场稳定基金计划。I think that's very important here. The overall announcement, I think it's unprecedented. It's very monetary and specifically equity market focused, right? So, you know, some clients are indeed worrying about the structural economic issues remaining in place like, you know, fiscal difficulties, the property, etc.我认为这一点非常重要。我认为，整个公告是史无前例的。它非常注重货币，特别是股市，对吗？所以，你知道，有些客户确实担心经济结构性问题依然存在，比如，你知道，财政困难、房地产等。But I think, you know, today's, you know, the announcements were mostly aimed at addressing confidence issues in the equity market alone. And then you tomorrow, there will be NDRC press conference at 10 a. M. That will be discussing some cons, maybe consumption side reforms, and also including updates on equipment trading program, for example. And I think with the top central bank and top financial regulators in place, I think the very, again, the signal is very clear that is something, it's shifting there, you know, and more regional or local government and different agencies will follow up with their own, you know, announcements. I think this is something that we have not seen before. So market activity levels, you know, very clearly show this enthusiasm.但我认为，今天的公告主要是为了解决股市的信心问题。明天上午 10 点，发改委将召开新闻发布会，讨论一些弊端，可能是消费方面的改革，还包括设备交易计划的更新等。我认为，随着最高央行和最高金融监管机构的到位，我认为，再次发出的信号是非常明确的，那就是一些东西正在转移到那里，你知道，更多的地区或地方政府和不同的机构将跟进，你知道，他们自己的公告。我认为这是我们以前从未见过的。因此，市场活动水平，你知道的，非常清楚地显示了这种热情。I think in China, the turnover would just under 1 trillion women. B again, that's the highest since the may rally. Hong Kong turnover was even more ex stream here. I think it's because when foreign investors, when they look at addressing China underway, they typically start with offshore Hong Kong markets first to, you know, get some delta first before they decide on what to do next. So Hong Kong turnover was 2 hundred and forty two billion Hong Kong dollar. That's the highest level since may of 2,022. So just for context, that's almost 20% higher than the highest turnover day this year in may during their rally.我认为在中国，成交额将略低于 1 万亿美元。这也是自五月反弹以来的最高值。香港的成交额甚至比这还要高。我认为，这是因为当外国投资者考虑在中国投资时，他们通常会先从离岸的香港市场开始，你知道，先获得一些三角洲，然后再决定下一步怎么做。因此，香港的成交额达到了 242 亿港元。这是自5月份2022亿港元以来的最高水平。这比今年五月反弹时的最高成交额高出近20%。So certainly the market is taking this a lot more seriously here, right? The, our pad is, you know, it is reflecting this increased level of trading in the market. Hong Kong, for example, we treat nearly two and a half times of our two week daily average notional. So you, even though we started in the morning as some of the clients here, you know, to have a conversation with me during the day, understand that we have a self skill in the morning, but the market rally continuing.因此，市场肯定会更加认真地对待这件事，对吗？我们的垫子反映了市场交易量的增加。以香港为例，我们的交易量几乎是两周日均名义交易量的两倍半。因此，即使我们像这里的一些客户一样从早上开始，你知道，在白天与我进行对话，了解我们在早上有一个自我技能，但市场反弹仍在继续。We're starting to see Hedge Fund First to start bid the market. Now that started a small consumer material energy names, you know, five, six million dollar clips, not, you know, massively inflow, but you know, in the afternoon with a very clear momentum continued throughout the lunch break and afterwards. This is where we're seeing global lonellies actually starting to get involved again. This is not massive, but typically with the lonely biz, they come in a business slower and it takes them longer to digest this. But we're seeing consumer and financials are standing out in what the long owners are buying, and the hedge funds are following through in these similar sectors as well in the afternoon, especially when our European client base is just waking up.我们开始看到对冲基金开始竞相入市。现在，开始有一个小的消费材料能源名称，你知道，五六百万美元的片段，你知道，不是大规模流入，但你知道，在下午有一个非常明显的势头持续整个午休时间和之后。在这里，我们看到全球的独角兽们又开始参与进来了。虽然规模不大，但通常情况下，独角兽企业的业务发展速度较慢，他们需要更长的时间来消化这些信息。但我们看到，在多头买入的股票中，消费和金融股表现突出，对冲基金也在下午跟进这些类似的板块，尤其是当我们的欧洲客户群刚刚醒来的时候。Now moving on to the a shares here. We still finish with a small sales queue here, right? As I mentioned, formulas are typically start with offshore market. So, you know, the buyer driving the HR market on our path, mostly foreign hedge fund. They're pretty aggressively bidding is especially in consumer names like liquor that has been selling off after, you know, multi price coming off and recent negative news about consumption.现在我们来看看 A 股。我们在这里仍然有一个小的销售队列，对吗？正如我提到的，公式通常是从离岸市场开始的。所以，你知道，在我们的道路上，推动人力资源市场的买家，大多是外国对冲基金。他们的出价相当激进，尤其是像白酒这样的消费类产品，在多头价格回落和近期有关消费的负面新闻之后，一直在抛售。So now we're seeing hedge 4 and hedge funds aggressively chasing Mao Tai Wuliang ye, for example, but long only here are still selling a cross the board, right? I think it would take a bit of convincing for foreign lonely to come through to China Asian market just because of the nature of the onshore Asia market. But you know, if you think of too late, you know, to get involved in Asia, just, you know, CSI 300 is just back to Chinese New Year levels back in February, and that's still down 10% right now from 2024 year to day high sin in may, year to day CSI 300 is down 2.3%.因此，我们现在看到对冲基金在积极追逐茅台五粮液等产品，但这里的多头仍在横盘抛售，对吗？我认为，由于亚洲在岸市场的性质，要让外国孤注一掷地进入中国亚洲市场，还需要一些说服工作。但是，如果你认为介入亚洲市场为时已晚，你知道，沪深 300 指数刚刚回到 2 月份的春节水平，而现在距离 2024 年 5 月的日高点仍有 10%的跌幅，沪深 300 指数日跌幅为 2.3%。So just, you know, for context, right? And then in addition, I think for the hedge fund crowd that, you know could have a derivative mandate, we trade a meaningful size and a shares of side in the call option format, for example, in CSI. Three hundred expiration ahead of the year end was a particularly most popular, you know, intro day CSI. Three hundred volt move, nearly three volts.所以，你知道，这只是背景，对吗？此外，我认为，对于对冲基金人群来说，你知道，他们可能有衍生品任务，我们以看涨期权的形式进行有意义的规模和份额交易，例如，CSI。年底前的三百伏到期日是中证指数最受欢迎的日子。三百伏的移动，近三伏。So I think with this announcement is, you know, again, clear the Beijing's looking to first address the weakness, a chronic weakness, one would say, with the equity market to start. But you know, once the confidence is there, the buyer of last resort, the stabilization fun news is out there.因此，我认为这次的声明再次表明，中国政府希望首先从股市入手，解决股市长期疲软的问题。但你知道，一旦有了信心，最后的买家，稳定的消息就会出现。I think then there could be measures aimed at actually fixing the, or stabilizing economy. It won't be easy, but I think from here on out, the risk reward is starting to make sense. I think HR's outperformance against H could continue with momentum, you know, in the near future. And then again, I wanna repeat, you know, the specific themes here that we've been looking at high dividends, for example, a or H, we have baskets there, shareholder return scene, for example. I think that could benefit the most because clearly Beijing is directing where the extra liquidity should be going, you know, providing shareholder returns, MMA, etc. So I think in, you know, at this point in time, I would not be a fighter of the train. 我认为，接下来可能会有旨在真正修复或稳定经济的措施。这并不容易，但我认为从现在开始，风险回报开始变得有意义了。我认为，在不久的将来，HR相对于H股的优异表现可能会继续保持。再有，我想重复一下，你知道，我们一直在关注高股息的具体主题，例如，A 或 H，我们有篮子，例如股东回报场景。我认为这可能受益最大，因为很明显，北京正在引导额外流动性的去向，你知道，提供股东回报、MMA 等。因此，我认为，你知道，在这个时间点上，我不会成为火车的斗士Given the time limits, I think we will wrap up here. We still have a lot of questions online. Feel free to reach out to the sales team and also research team. We're more than happy to help and hope the market can really sustain from here. Thank you very much for joining today.鉴于时间有限，我想我们就到此为止。网上还有很多问题。欢迎随时联系销售团队和研究团队。我们非常乐意提供帮助，并希望市场能真正从这里开始持续发展。非常感谢大家今天的参与。【特别声明】本文来源于地平线全球策略。若有侵权请联系删除。文章的观点和立场并不代表本公众号的观点和立场。此文版权归原作者所有，其他第三方若要转载此文章请事先联系沟通，未经授权的转载都视为侵权。
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