【量化历史网上讲座系列】(Quantitative History Webinar Series)由香港大学陈志武和马驰骋教授联合发起，旨在介绍前沿量化历史研究成果、促进同仁交流，推广量化方法在历史研究中的应用。本系列讲座由国际量化历史学会、香港大学经管学院和香港人文社会研究所全力支持和承办。从2023年开始，本系列讲座得到中国香港特别行政区研究资助局卓越学科领域计划的重要资助 (项目编号[AoE/B-704/22-R])。

Twilight of the Medieval Chinese Aristocracy: Keju, Officeholding, and Assortative Mating in the Tang （士族的黄昏：唐代的科举、任官与婚姻匹配）

主讲人： Erik H. Wang , Assistant Professor, Wilf Family Department of Politics, New York University

讨论人： Javier Cha , Assistant Professor of Digital Humanities, HKU Department of History

时    间： 2024年06月20日 9:00 - 10:30 （北京时间，星期四）

讲座语言：English

注册链接及二维码：

https://hku.zoom.us/webinar/register/8717014797742/WN_YPvPG1gRQrWHFT9L5hpGdA#/registration

Data from the distant past provide fertile ground for testing social science theories of education and social mobility. Erik H. Wang of the New York University and his team constructed a dataset from 3,640 tomb epitaphs of males in China’s Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE), containing detailed information about ancestral origins, family background, and career histories of the deceased elites.

Their statistical analysis yields evidence of a transition away from an aristocratic society in three key trends: 1) family pedigree mattered less for career achievement over time, 2) passing the Imperial Examination (Keju) became an increasingly important predictor of one’s career achievement, and 3) father’s position always mattered throughout the Tang, especially for men who did not pass the Keju. Erik and his team’s findings cast doubt on historical studies portraying the medieval Chinese aristocracy as self-perpetuating during this era. These works appear to “select on the dependent variable” when analyzing biographical data.

During this Quantitative History Webinar, Erik will present models that correct for the biases incurred in these studies. The new findings reaffirm earlier, classic works that suggested a chronic decline of the aristocracy via the rise of Keju. The aristocracy’s advantage in officeholding had already been in clear decline long before the wars and upheavals of the late 9th and early 10th centuries that allegedly ended the aristocracy. The twilight of medieval Chinese aristocracy, according to the data, began in as early as the mid-seventh century CE. The advantage of ancient great houses gradually vanished and individuals’ educational achievement became increasingly important for their career success. Erik will also discuss new results on Keju and assortative mating among the Tang elites.

“量化历史研究”公众号由陈志武（