The drilling of the first modern well in Pennsylvania in 1859 set oil on a path that led to the heart of economics and geopolitics. Oil fuelled the rise of the West’s consumer culture; it helped determine who won the second world war and prompted a global economic crisis in the 1970s. Over the past 20 years China has become the second-biggest consumer of crude, while America’s fracking revolution has meant it is close to being a net energy exporter for the first time since the 1950s. Now a new chapter in oil’s story is unfolding: the prospect of stagnating or falling demand as the world shifts to cleaner energy. As in the past, this era promises startling economic and geopolitical change.
1859年，宾夕法尼亚打出了第一口现代钻井，石油由此成为经济和地缘政治的命脉。
它推动了西方消费文化的兴起，决定了了第二次世界大战的胜败，并引发了1970年的全球经济危机。
在过去的20年里，中国已经成为原油的第二大消费国，而美国的压裂法革命意味着它将结束自1950年代末以来的能源净进口历史。
现在，石油故事的新篇章正在展开：
随着世界转向清洁能源，石油面临着需求停滞或者下降的前景。
和过去一样，这个时代有望带来带来惊人的经济和地缘政治的变革。
Consider the imminent stockmarket flotation of Saudi Aramco, which produces 10m barrels of oil a day, or 11% of the global total. As well as Arabian super-light, Aramco pumps out superlatives and controversy. Worth well over $1trn, it could, once listed, be the world’s most valuable public firm, squeezing past Apple. The initial public offering has been delayed several times; a big Aramco processing plant was hit by a missile strike in September and the firm is ultimately controlled by Muhammad bin Salman, an autocratic royal with blood on his hands. But take a moment to look beyond this. Aramco’s underlying strategy is to be the last oilman standing if the industry shrinks, pointing to the upheavals to come.
想一下即将上市的沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司——沙特阿美，该公司每天生产1000万桶石油，占全球总量的11%。
除了生产阿拉伯超轻原油产品外，阿美公司还带来了盛赞之词和争议。
它的价值超过1万亿美元，一旦上市，就可能超越苹果，成为全球市值最高的公司。
不过，这家公司的ipo已经被推迟了好几次。
9月时，阿美公司的一家大型炼油厂遭到导弹袭击，这家公司幕后的实际控制人穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼则是一个手上沾有鲜血的独裁皇室成员。
但是请花时间看看，如果这个行业萎缩，阿美公司的潜在战略是成为最后一个存在的石油商。
The term “peak oil” was coined in 1956 by M. King Hubbert, a geologist worried about the stuff running out. Today the phrase is back but for the opposite reason: the prospect of dwindling demand. That may seem odd given that this has grown by 1.4% a year since 2008. But the people running energy companies have long horizons, and on that timescale the picture for oil is darkened by urban pollution and climate change. Oil is responsible for a third of global energy use and a similar share of carbon emissions.
“石油峰值论”是由担心石油会枯竭的地质学家哈伯特在1956年提出来的，现在这个短语又回来了，但是原因却相反：
现在人们担心的是需求将要枯竭。
鉴于2008年以来石油需求量每年以1.4%的速度增长，这个预判似乎有些奇怪，但是经营能源公司的人眼光很长远。
在一段时期内，城市污染和气候变化会让石油行业前景暗淡。
石油贡献了全球三分之一的能源使用，但造成了差不多份额的碳排放量。
Many oil firms still say that production will creep up over the next decade, to slightly above today’s level of 95m barrels per day (b/d), and then plateau. But output will need to drop to 45m-70m b/d by 2050 if the world is to stop temperatures rising more than 1.5-2°C above their pre-industrial level. It would help, too, if there was a shift to cleaner oilfields, whose crude emits a fifth less than the dirtiest ones. Though oil bosses insist, in public at least, that oil remains the planet’s indispensable fuel, they can feel the growing stigma. Public opinion is shifting in the West, heralding tighter rules on emissions. And, in a sign of jumpiness, some Western firms have favoured short-term projects rather than sink their capital in decades-long bets on oil’s future.
许多石油公司仍然表示，未来十年石油产量将攀升，会略高于如今的每天9500万桶，然后达到稳定水平。
但是气温会比进入工业化之前高1.5-2°C，如果世界打算阻止全球变暖的话，到2050年，石油产量需要下降到每天4500万到7000万桶。
转移到更清洁的油田也会有所帮助，清洁油田的原油碳排放量要比污染很重的油田少五分之一。
石油老板们还认为——至少在公众场合下是这样——石油依旧是地球上最不可或缺的资源，尽管如此，他们还是会感到自己的名声越来越差。
西方的舆论正在转变，这预示着排放法规会更加严格。
还有一个变化迹象：
一些西方公司已经更加偏好短期项目，而不是把他们的资金浪费在数十年后的石油前途的赌注上。
If demand does fall, some products and producers are more vulnerable than others. Over a third of all oil is used in cars and lorries which could eventually be fitted with electric engines. It is harder to find a substitute for the oil in petrochemicals and plastics. Common sense suggests that the highest-cost and dirtiest oil firms will tend to go out of business first. If so, an industry that has become gargantuan over 160 years will shrink to a core of producers that fulfil the world’s residual demand at the lowest financial and environmental cost.
如果需求确实下降，某些产品和生产商会相比其他产品和生产商更容易受到影响。
超过三分之一的石油用于汽车和卡车，不过汽车和卡车都可以安装电动发动机。
但在石油化工产品和塑料业中，找到石油的替代品很难。
常识表明，成本最高，污染最严重的石油公司往往会最先倒闭，如果是这样的话，一个160年多年来的庞大产业将会萎缩到只有一群核心生产商，他们用最低的财务成本和环境成本满足世界的剩余需求。
Many environmental activists fear this energy transition will never happen. But, in fact, it fits with Aramco’s strategy and pitch to investors. The firm spends just $3 to lift a barrel from beneath the desert, less than almost anyone else. The emissions from extracting Saudi oil are rock-bottom, too. Aramco is expanding in petrochemicals and locking in customers in Asia—in August it bought a $15bn stake in the chemicals arm of Reliance, an Indian giant. Saudi Arabia has promised investors they will get steady dividends whatever the weather. Implicit in the kingdom’s approach is that, if and when oil demand falters, Aramco will be the producer of last resort.
许多环保主义者担心这种能源转变永不会发生。
但实际上，上述转变符合阿美的战略和它向投资者的推销——该公司仅用3美元就能从沙漠里弄出一桶石油，成本几乎低于其他任何公司。
同时，它开采的沙特石油所产生的排放量也是最低的。
阿美正在扩张石化产品并锁定亚洲客户，8月，它买下了印度巨头信实的工业化工部门价值150亿美元的股份。
沙特阿拉伯向投资者承诺，无论情况如何，他们都会拿到稳定的分红。
这个王国的做法暗含着，如果石油需求下降，阿美会成为最后的生产商。
A cleaner planet is in everyone’s interests. But a shrinking oil industry could mean more, not less, turbulence for energy markets and geopolitics. Take energy markets first. The optimistic case is that supply and demand will taper down in tandem, and that the price of oil will fall along with the cost of producing the last barrel needed to satisfy ebbing demand. But downsizing an industry with $16trn of capital and at least 10m employees is never going to be smooth. Because oilfields naturally deplete, a drought in capital spending could cause a price spike. Each firm and country, including Saudi Arabia, will face a choice between holding back supply so as to bolster profits and tax revenues and opening the taps to grab market share and use up reserves, whatever the price, before it is too late. The opec cartel, which combines high- and low-cost producers, could implode. And as production focuses on fewer fields, the risk of disruption from terrorism or accidents will rise.
一个更洁净的星球符合每个人的利益。
但是，不断萎缩的石油行业可能对能源市场和地缘政治造成更多而不是更少的动荡。
首先是能源市场，乐观的情况是供求关系将一前一后逐渐减少，石油价格下降，需求衰退，石油的生产成本也会随之降低。
但是，缩小一个价值16万亿美元和至少1000万名员工的行业，其过程肯定无法一帆风顺。
因为油田会自然地枯竭，资本投入的短缺可能会导致价格飙升，包括沙特阿拉伯在内的每个公司和国家，都面临着以下选择：
抑制供应以增加利润和税收，或者打开水龙头以抢占市场份额，不管价格怎么样，赶紧用光储备，以免为时过晚。
欧佩克这样将高成本和低成本生产商集合在一起的联盟可能会崩溃。
而且，因为生产集中在更少的油田里，恐怖主义或者意外事故造成破坏的风险将增加。
The political implications are just as big. Twenty-six countries rely on oil income for 5% or more of their gdp, says the World Bank (the average for them is 18%). If economic logic prevails, producers with the dearest and dirtiest oil—including Algeria, Brazil, Canada, Nigeria and Venezuela—should wind down output, but that would be painful and, for some, devastating. America, meanwhile, remains wedded to oil, which meets 40% of its energy needs. Its thirst has been satisfied by the fracking boom, especially in the Permian basin in Texas. Yet fracking is dirty and new projects need an oil price of $40-50 a barrel to break-even, at least twice the level Aramco requires. For the sake of the climate and efficiency, the fracking industry should eventually shrink. That, though, would make America more reliant on foreigners, just as its politics have turned inward.
政治影响也是如此。
根据世界银行数据，石油收入占据世界上26个国家的GDP的 5％或以上（平均值是18％）。
如果经济逻辑占上风，那么拥有成本最高和污染最严重的石油生产商（包括阿尔及利亚，巴西，加拿大，尼日利亚和委内瑞拉）应该减少产量，但这将是痛苦的，并且对某些国家来说是毁灭性的。
同时，美国还是依赖石油，石油满足了美国40％的能源需求。
水力压裂法的蓬勃发展满足了它对能源的饥渴，尤其是在德克萨斯州的二叠纪盆地（译者注：
二叠纪盆地是美国已开采的页岩油田中储量最大的之一）。
然而，水力压裂污染很重，并且新项目需要油价达到每桶40-50美元才能满足盈亏平衡，这个价格至少是阿美要求的盈亏平衡价格的两倍。
考虑到气候和效率的因素，水力压裂行业最终将萎缩。
不过，这将使美国更加依赖国外，而美国的政治则愈发关注国内。
Till kingdom come
直到王国出现
And then there is Saudi Arabia itself. Aramco’s pitch to investors will boast of its abundant, cheap and relatively clean oil. That much is true. But it will not dwell on the country’s jobless youth or opaque court politics. Perhaps the proceeds of the ipo will help modernise the Saudi economy; perhaps not. Investors betting on Aramco as the last oil major standing in 30 years’ time will have to consider the risk of revolution or invasion. Aramco’s flotation is a sign that the end of oil could be in sight. But it is also a reminder that the black stuff’s capacity to cause economic and political havoc will be undiminished for decades to come.
接下来就是沙特阿拉伯自己了。
阿美公司向投资者推销时会吹嘘它丰富、廉价并且相对干净的石油，的确如此。
但是阿美的推销中不会详谈这个国家失业的青年人或不透明的宫廷政治。
ipo带来的收益也许有助于沙特经济的现代化，也许不会。
押注阿美是30年里最后的石油巨头，投资者将不得不考虑这个国家发生革命或入侵的风险。
阿美的上市标志着石油的尽头即将到来，但这也提醒我们，在未来几年，石油这种黑色的物质能造成经济和政治破坏的能力将不会减弱。
