【经济学人】英国大选丨2017.06.17丨总第941期

THE Conservative Party began the election campaign with an enormous lead and even on election day was expecting to increase its majority. What went wrong?

保守党以一个大党派开始竞选,甚至期望在选举日增加多的席位。到底哪里出了错?

The biggest unknown ahead of the election was turnout. Labour was wildly popular among the young, but polling firms differed in their estimates of how many young people would vote at all. In the event, Labour’s young fans excelled themselves: turnout among people aged 18-24 was 57%, according to a large post-election survey by YouGov, a pollster. That is 14 percentage points greater than in 2015.

选举前最大的未知是投票率。工党在年轻人中广受欢迎,但民意调查公司对最终有多少年轻人投票评估不同。在这次事件中,工党的年轻粉丝超越了他们自己：根据一家民意调查站YouGov选举后大型的民意调查，18到24岁这个年龄段人的投票率占57%。这比2015年多了14个百分点。

• excelled v. 优于；超过；超越（excel的过去分词形式）；胜过

Age is now the main determining factor affecting party choice. The “phenomenal” generational divide has never before been so stark , according to John Curtice of NatCen Social Research. Mr Corbyn pulled in young people in droves by promising free university tuition. Labour won 43 of the 60 constituencies where full-time students make up 15% or more of the adult population, five of which it gained from the Tories.

现在，年龄已经成为政党选择的主要决定因素。根据英国国家社会研究中心的John Curtice所说，代沟现象从来没有像现在这么突出。Corbyn先生通过承诺大学免学费来拉拢年轻人。工党赢得了60个选区中的43个，其中全日制学生占成年人口的15%或更多，其中有5个得自保守党。

• Stark 完全的；荒凉的；刻板的；光秃秃的；朴实的；完全；明显地；突出地；人名

Overall, turnout rose by 2.5 points to 68.7%, the highest since 1997. Seat-by-seat analysis shows that it increased most in areas with large populations of well-educated under-45s; areas that are ethnically diverse; and areas that voted to remain in the European Union last year. That probably cost the Conservatives. Turnout in pro-EU London, where they lost six seats, increased by five points to surpass 70% for the first time since 1992.

总体来说，投票率上升了2.5个百分点到达68.7%，是自1997年以来的最高点。Seat-by-seat分析显示：这现象（投票率上升）在那些受过良好教育的45岁以下的大人口地区，那些多民族地区和去年投票留在欧盟的地区最为明显。这可能会让保守党付出代价。在支持欧盟的伦敦，他们失去了6个席位，在1992年以来第一次增长了5个百分点，首次超过了70%。

Brexit paid some dividends to the Tories. In 2015 the UK Independence Party won 12.6% of the vote with an anti-EU message. With the referendum won, its vote collapsed . About 60% of those who voted for UKIP in 2015 defected to the Conservatives, according to a post-election survey by Lord Ashcroft. The Tories did best in constituencies that voted heavily for Brexit: in six of their eight new English seats the Leave vote was over 60%.

英国脱欧支付股息给保守党。2015，英国独立党以反对欧盟的信息赢得了12.6%的选票。随着全民公决的胜利，投票失败了。在2015年投奔了保守党中大约有60%的人投票赞成独立党，根据选举后的阿什克罗夫特勋爵的调查。在进行选区保守党做的最好的，有很多选民支持退欧：在他们的八个新英国座位中，有六个席位的超过60%的投票支持退出。

• Collapse （突然）倒塌，坍塌；倒下，昏倒，晕倒；坐下，躺下放松；突然失败；崩溃；瓦解；降价，贬值；暴跌

But Brexit hurt the party in other places. Excluding Scotland, there is a strong correlation between swings from the Tories to Labour and the vote in the EU referendum (see chart). By our seat-by-seat analysis, Brexit was responsible for about half of the national swing from the Tories to Labour. Labour said as little as possible about the subject, allowing it to attract voters from both sides of the referendum divide. It gained 18 seats in lukewarm Leave constituencies and 13 in areas that voted Remain.

但英国退欧伤害了这个党派的其他地方。除苏格兰外，从保守党到工党的摇摆和欧盟公投有着密切的联系（见图表）。我们一个一个来分析，英国退欧导致了一半的全国从保守党到工党的摇摆。工党尽可能少地谈论这个问题，希望从公投的两个方面吸引选民。它在冷淡退欧的选区中获得了18个席位，在留欧的地区里获得了13个席位。

All told, of the 28 seats the Tories lost to Labour, perhaps 17 can be explained by some combination of higher turnout, large populations of young and educated voters, and opposition to a hard Brexit. That leaves 11 seats dotted around England where those elements were not sufficient to explain the result. Seven years of austerity under the Tories are likely to have counted; so is Theresa May’s dour campaign, which failed to learn from the Scottish independence referendum of 2014 that positive messages matter.

总而言之，在保守党失去给工党的28个席位中，也许有17个席位可以通过这几个原因来解释：更高的投票率、大量的年轻受过教育的投票者以及对于脱欧的反对。而剩下的11个席位则遍布英国，这些因素不足以解释结果。据估计，保守党时长七年的紧缩政策很可能也是一个原因，所以，特蕾莎·梅的顽强挣扎并没有从2014年的苏格兰全民公投中取得教训：正能量很重要。

• austerity （经济的）紧缩；朴素；苦行；严厉

It was nearly very different. The Tories lost four seats by 30 votes or fewer. The current distribution of votes means that the number of seats won is more “elastic” relative to vote share than in the past, Mr Curtice notes. A 2.5 percentage-point swing from Labour to the Tories would have won them 29 more seats, giving them a 51-seat working majority—and turning the narrative of Tory disaster into one of triumph.

然而结果与大家的预料完全不同，保守党以30票甚至不足30票而输了四席。Curtice先生在自己的日记中写道：“根据选票的分布可以看出现在赢得席位的票数比过去更加注重“弹性”相对投票份额。” （期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的长难句解析哟~）

翻译 ▍ E-J-2

审核 ▍ CON

图文编辑 ▍璃儿

责任编辑 ▍毛毛