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大健雲倉: 海外大件B2B先發制勝,數據驅動構築核心競爭力

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-08-21 21:58

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GigaCloud Technology

(GCT US)


海外大件B2B先發制勝,數據驅動構築核心競爭力


Initiating coverage: first mover hones edge in big-ticket B2B on foreign warehousing and data-driven solutions

TP: USD56.00    BUY (Initiation)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

公司業績快速增長,業務結構持續優化。 公司於2010年邁入跨境電商領域,積累先發優勢,現專注於跨境大件商品B2B交易。


三大核心業務板塊包括GigaCloud 3P、GigaCloud 1P和平臺外電子商務,2023年總GMV達7.9億美元;其中,3P業務貢獻了53%的交易額,助力業績高增。2023年公司實現營業收入7.04億美元,同比增長43.6%;因海運費下降,營業成本增速放緩,毛利率同比提升近10個百分點;調整後淨利潤爲9680萬美元,淨利率改善明顯,由2022年的5%增至13%,盈利水平顯著修復。


Rising profitability driven by continual optimization of business structure

GigaCloud Technology entered the cross-border ecommerce business in 2010 and has built up competitive advantages as a first mover. It now focuses on B2B big-ticket transactions through its three key divisions: GigaCloud third-party (3P) and first-party, and off-platform ecommerce. Business growth has been robust:

•Total GMV amounted to USD790m in 2023, with the lucrative 3P division contributing 53% of total transaction value.

•Revenue was USD704m last year, up 43.6%, helped by declining sea freight and slowing operating cost growth, which widened gross margin by nearly 10ppt yoy.

•Adjusted net profit was USD96.8m, as profitability growth came back in with net margin up from 5% in 2022 to 13% last year.


後疫情時代跨境傢俱市場廣闊,傢俱出海大有可爲。 需求方面,疫情時期線上消費習慣的培養和供應鏈的完善,促進全球電商規模和電商滲透率穩步提升, 全球B2B電商市場規模有望進一步擴大,2027年預計可達21萬億美元。而美國作爲2022年全球第一大傢俱市場,預計未來需求保持穩健增長。供給方面,中國B2B出海賽道持續擴容,預計到2025年規模將達到6.9萬億元,2022-2025年GACR達到15.6%,出海增長潛力強勁。同時,美國傢俱市場線上化率呈現穩健的增長趨勢,有助於公司市場份額的提升。


Furniture exports have high potential in an enormous post-pandemic market

Demand: the pandemic market birthed the enormous expansion of online consumption and led to supply chain enhancements as the global ecommerce market grew in scale and penetration. We project B2B ecommerce will continue to expand to a global market of USD21tr by 2027E. We believe that the US, as the largest demand market for furniture as of 2022, will keep growing steadily in the future.


Supply: China’s B2B exports are expanding and we see strong growth potential in this market toward a market of RMB6.9tr by 2025E, which implies a 15.6% CAGR over 2022-25E. Meanwhile, the US furniture market is showing a strong uptrend in online sales, which we believe will help drive up GigaCloud’s market share.


供應鏈創新+AI解決方案建立核心競爭力,買賣增量空間促進平臺規模持續擴張。 公司在“供應鏈前置”中垂直整合電商、倉儲和物流資源,實現市場整體的降本增效;利用AI技術賦能業務全鏈路運營,提高平臺數字化水平。Seller方面,公司SKU數量達到3萬+,中國出海機會的增加與全球化採購網絡的構建推動平臺Seller的增加;Buyer方面,多樣化的平臺產品供應,以及發展中國家/地區的高性價比的產品,迎合了美國經銷商和客戶的需求,持續吸引Buyer入駐;公司擁有穩健的市場擴張戰略,配合量價齊升的發展趨勢,預計整體GMV將實現良性循環。


Supply chain innovations and AI solutions form core competitive edge

GigaCloud’s ecommerce platform scale continues to rise with incremental buying and selling business expansion:

•Full-chain coverage: at the forefront of its supply chain, the company vertically integrates ecommerce, warehousing and logistical resources to reduce overall costs and raise efficiency in the market. It uses AI technology to empower full-chain business operations and enhance platform digitalization.

•Sellers: the company currently has more than 30,000 merchandise SKUs and its seller numbers is increasing with rising foreign market opportunities and the construction of a global procurement network.

•Buyers: GigaCloud’s diverse merchandise platform continues to attract buyers with cost-effective products from developing markets that cater to the requirements of US dealers and customers. We expect the company’s steady market expansion strategy, as well as volume and price uptrends, to drive a virtuous circle in total GMV virtuous circle.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議: 我們認爲大件家居線上化率較低、增速較快,且公司海外倉儲模式在跨境電商中卡位獨特,能夠以較高的效率解決買賣方的需求。我們給予其可比上市企業平均估值水平。我們預計公司2024-2026年的營收分別爲10.5/13.9/18.2億美元,同比增長49%/32%/31%,2024-2026年調整後淨利潤分別爲1.2/1.8/2.2億美元,給予公司2025年13倍PE,對應目標價56美元,首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

We reckon the current low online penetration of the big-ticket furniture market implies fast-growth potential. We believe GigaCloud’s foreign warehousing business model is uniquely positioned for cross-border ecommerce growth, which enables more efficient fulfillment of buyer and seller requirements. We place GigaCloud at average valuation relative to its listed peers’ valuation range. We forecast revenue of USD1.05bn/1.39bn/ 1.82bn in 2024/25/26E, up 49%/32%/31%, with adjusted net profit at USD120/180/220m. We assign a 13x PE in 2025E, which derives our target price of USD56. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating.


風險提示: 美國進口關稅進一步提高,中國製造業成本大幅上升,美國傢俱銷售不達預期,海運成本進一步提高,美國宏觀經濟下行風險


Risks include: increasing US import tariffs; rising Chinese manufacturing costs; weaker US furniture sales than expected; higher shipping costs; and a slowing US macroeconomy.



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