首席经济学家点评：美国伊朗冲突是否一触即发？

The current US-Iran tensions will trigger volatility, particularly in the oil market, but are unlikely to lead to direct conflict unless triggered by an unplanned event, according to Dr. Florence Eid-Oakden, chief economist of Arabia Monitor.

近来美国和伊朗的紧张将造成局势的不稳定性，尤其是石油市场。然而，阿拉伯观察首席经济学家Florence Eid-Oakden博士表示，除非有其他突发事件的出现，不然双方不太可能有直接的冲突。

“The current situation is a recipe for volatility with no solution to US-Iran relations in sight, “ she says. “But we at Arabia Monitor estimate the chances of a direct conflict between the two sides at only 5%. The chances of a settlement through talks, however, is a similarly small 5%.”

博士也表示，“目前的情势造成局势的不稳定性，就目前美国伊朗的双方关系来看，尚未有解决办法。阿拉伯观察估计，双方产生直接冲突的机率仅有5％，但通过谈话达成和议的机率也同样只有5%.”

Arabia Monitor expects the result will be volatility in oil prices and more economic collapse in Iran as the government in Tehran rides out what it hopes will be the end of US President Donald Trump’s term next year. Were President Trump to be re-elected, there would be a reassessment.

阿拉伯观察预计此次冲突将导致石油价格的波动以及伊朗经济上更多的崩盘，因为伊朗政府只能在明年美国总统特朗普任期结束才能安然挺过目前危局。但若特朗普总统连任，情势就要再重新评估。

The major caveat is that there could be conflict by accident. Potential flashpoints include the war in Yemen, sectarians in Bahrain, Israeli involvement and actions by Hezbollah. There are also reported splits within the White House that could muddy the waters.

值得警惕的是，冲突可能意外地发生。可能的导火线包括在叶门的战争、巴林教派间的紧张、以色列的介入以及真主党的行动。而传闻的白宫内部分裂也可能导致局面更加混乱。

“As a result of all this,” Dr Eid-Oakden concludes, "we, like the IMF, see the Iranian economy contracting by 6% this year, but we expect an average oil price of USD 65 per barrel vs USD 59 estimated by the IMF.

Eid-Oakden博士总结说，“由于上述因素，我们和国际货币基金组织（IMF）一样，都预测伊朗今年的经济会缩减6%。但我们预估今年平均油价为每桶65美元，不同于IMF预估的59美元。”