印度评级与研究公司
(Ind-Ra)
预计，尽管冠状病毒疫情对国内钢铁行业造成影响，但短期内印度钢铁价格的下行空间有限。与
2019
年
4
月至
12
月相比，
3
月季度的需求增长预计将加快。
India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra)expects limited short-term downside to Indian steel prices, notwithstanding theimpact of the coronavirus outbreak on the domestic steel sector. Demand growthis expected to accelerate in the March quarter compared to April-December 2019.
Ind-Ra
表示，建筑和基础设施行业的需求正在回升，这反映在长材产品的消费上，
2019
年
12
月的长材消费量比
2019
年平均水平高出
16%
左右。在截至
2020
年
3
月的财年中，
Ind-Ra
对需求增长的预期保持
4%
不变。
Demand from the construction andinfrastructure sector is picking up, reflected by the consumption of long steelproducts which was around 16% higher in December 2019 when compared to the 2019average, Ind-Ra says. Ind-Ra maintains its 4% demand growth expectation for thefiscal year through March 2020.
Ind-Ra
观察到，
2020
年
1
月中旬热轧卷价格（德里
2.5mm-8mm, IS2062
）环比上涨约
6%
，由于需求复苏和成本推动，价格略有上涨。
HRC prices (Delhi 2.5mm-8mm, IS2062) werearound 6% higher in mid-January 2020 on a month-on-month basis and have inchedup due to a revival in demand and cost push, Ind-Ra observes.
为了满足改善的需求，并缓解国内铁矿石供应的不确定性——多个采矿许可证将于
3
月底到期，印度钢铁制造商已经提高了产量。
To meet the improved demand and mitigatethe uncertainty over domestic iron ore availability, with multiple mininglicenses expiring by end-March, Indian steelmakers have increased output.
《矿山与矿产（开发与监管）法》的最新修订缓解了由于无法获得铁矿石而可能造成的钢铁供应中断（见
Kallanish
（开阑商务信息咨询）往期报道）。铁矿石价格仍有可能上涨，直至
3
月，因为随着需求上升，国内钢铁企业希望增加库存，并增加缓冲库存，以防矿山移交过程中出现轻微中断。
The latest amendment to theMines & Minerals (Development & Regulation) Act mitigates thepossible steel supply disruption due to iron ore unavailability (see Kallanishpassim). Iron ore prices are still likely to rise up to March, as domesticsteel players look to stock-up amid the pick-up in demand and add buffer stockin case of a minor disruption during mine transfers.
炼焦煤价格仍高度波动，
1
月中旬澳大利亚优质硬焦煤价格（
cnf
印度）环比上涨
5%
。考虑到对炼焦煤进口的依赖，印度国内钢铁企业一直主张取消印度
2.5%
的炼焦煤进口关税，以提高成本竞争力。
Coking coal prices remain highly volatile,with cnf India-basis Australia-origin premium hard coking coal prices up 5%on-month in mid-January. Given their dependence on coking coal imports,domestic steel players have been advocating towards a revocation ofIndia
’
s 2.5% coking coal import duties to be more cost competitive.
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London Networking Evening 2020
Feb. 6, 2020, London, United Kingdom
Asia Steel Markets 2020
22 Apr 2020, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
