【经济学人】坦桑尼亚反对派领导人接手其最大的黄金矿商|2017.06.15|总第945期

“IF THEY accept that they stole from us and seek forgiveness in front of God and the angels and all Tanzanians and enter into negotiations, we are ready to do business.” As conciliatory gestures go, that one by John Magufuli, Tanzania’s president, to Acacia Mining, the country’s largest foreign investor, could hardly have been more fork-tongued.

“如果他们能够承认他们偷了我们的东西（金矿），而且希望得到上帝和桑尼亚人民的宽恕，并且愿意进行谈判协商，那我们准备好做生意了。”坦桑尼亚总统john magufuli对Acacia （本国最大的境外投资商）的讲话是一种妥协姿态，根本是自欺欺人。

• Conciliatory 和解的

Nonetheless, two days later John Thornton, head of Barrick Gold, Acacia’s largest shareholder, met Mr Magufuli to start talks on ending a dispute that has halved Acacia’s market value since the government in March imposed a ban on the export of gold- and copper-concentrates. It is a mark of the seriousness of the stand-off that he is ready to negotiate on all points of contention between the two sides.

不过两天后，约翰桑顿（巴里克黄金公司(Barrick Gold)负责人， 阿加西亚斯的最大股东）与Magufuli会面，就结束一场自3月政府颁布关于黄金和铜精矿的出口禁令进行谈判，这一禁令使得Acacia的市场价值减少一半。这是双方对峙的严重性的一个标志，他准备就双方的所有争论点进行谈判。

The context of the row is increasingly typical of Africa’s mining industry. The Tanzanian government is seeking more tax revenue from a foreign mining firm that was initially wooed into the country by generous tax concessions. The state also wants to generate more value and jobs by smelting Acacia’s concentrates domestically, rather than abroad（读者试译句）.

这一争端的背景是非洲矿业的典型特征。坦桑尼亚政府正从外国矿业公司收取更多的税收，但这些公司最初是被巨大的的税收优惠吸引过来的。 （期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的长难句解析哟~）

That may seem reasonable, but Mr Magufuli’s firebrand populism, as well as his unpredictability, have made it a particularly worrying test case for mining firms across the region. In April Tanzania announced a new presidential committee to look into its gold exports. In late May the committee accused Acacia of underreporting its gold exports by a factor of ten, an accusation Mr Magufuli repeated.

这似乎是合理的，但是Magufuli的民粹主义，以及他的不可预测性，使得整个地区的矿业公司来特别担心这一测试案例。4月，坦桑尼亚宣布成立新的总统委员会来调查其黄金出口。在5月底，委员会指责Acacia漏报了黄金出口的十分之一，Magufuli也指责Acacia的这种行为。

Acacia says the charges of tax evasion are absurd. They note that if production were as understated as the committee alleged, Bulyanhulu and Buzwagi, the two mines where it produces concentrate, would be the biggest gold producers in the world. The firm says that it “wishes this were true, but sadly it is not the case.” Its gold production is audited in its accounts.

Acacia公司表示，对他们逃税的指控是荒谬的。他们指出，如果产量真的像委员会所说的那样被低估了，那么Bulyanhulu和Buzwagi（Acacia生产黄金的矿山）就是世界上最大的黄金生产商了。该公司表示，“我们倒是希望这是真的，但遗憾的是事实并非如此。” Acacia生产账目中的黄金产量已被审查。

How far Mr Magufuli wishes to go is unclear. The big fear is that he may favour full nationalisation . But he may accept a more pragmatic settlement. Analysts at UBS, a bank, reckon the Tanzanian government wants to bully Acacia into giving up a share of its “tax assets”, which it values at $532m. For example, the company is owed some $150m in VAT refunds.

不知道Magufuli会让这件事持续多久。最让人担心的是他可能支持完全国有化。但他也可能会接受更切实际的解决方案。瑞士联合银行的分析师估计，坦桑尼亚政府想要通过恐吓的方式让Acacia集团放弃其“税务资产”的一部分，其价值为5.32亿美元。例如，该公司欠了1.5亿美元的增值税退税。

• Nationalisation 国有化

Barrick, which owns almost 64% of Acacia, will discuss all of this. “A negotiated solution is better than escalation, such as going to international arbitration,” a spokesman says. That means it is prepared to talk about the tax problem as well as the possible construction of Tanzania’s first smelter of gold- and copper-concentrates, even though the latter has long been considered uneconomic because the country’s output of concentrates is too low.

巴里克拥有将近64%的Acacia矿业公司的股份，他将会对此进行讨论。一位发言者说：“谈判商讨解决方案总比让事态升级好，比如参加国际仲裁。” 这意味着，他准备谈论税收问题，以及建设坦桑尼亚第一家金和铜精矿的冶炼厂的可能性。尽管因为这个国家的精矿产量太低，以至于建造冶炼厂一直被认为是不经济的。

Since the ban was imposed, Acacia has continued to mine, stockpiling its output instead of exporting it. But it cannot continue without generating cash for ever. If it stops production, the damage will extend to the country at large. Last year Tanzania’s economy was among Africa’s best performers, growing by about 6%. It needs more foreign investment to maintain that pace. Mr Magufuli’s tactics—whether he has God and the angels on his side or not—will make that harder to achieve.

自从禁令实施以来，Acacia矿业公司一直在继续开采，矿物继续囤积却无法出口。但如果长期这样，它就无法获得现金回流，就无法继续运转下去。如果它停产了，损失将扩大到整个国家。去年，坦桑尼亚经济增长约6%，是非洲经济发展最好的国家之一。但他需要更多来自外国的投资来使经济保持在这一增长速度。无论Magufuli是对是错，他的策略都是难以实现的。

翻译 ▍ Cecilia

审核 ▍云图

图文编辑 ▍且听风吟

责任编辑 ▍毛毛