基于“拉闸限电”事件成因分析的节能减污降碳政策研究

I n recent years, the “power restriction” measures were taken in many localities, industrial electricity consumption was interrupted, mainly in the “two high” (high energy consumption and high pollutant emission) enterprises. Take the “power restriction” event in 2021 as an example, this event affected a wide range of regions and disrupted people’s livelihood. It not only refers to the power switch and rationing measures taken by individual regions, but also includes differentiated policies implemented by over 20 provinces to limit power supply and industrial production. This paper investigated in detail and summarized the different requirements of power restriction across the country, through the comparison of annual growth rates of power generation and industrial added value，the comparison results of energy intensity, electricity production, power consumption and the industrial growth rate in each province are analyzed. Industrial enterprises and related industrial chains were most heavily affected by the “power restriction” event，mainly in steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, industrial silicon, textile printing and dyeing, chemical fiber, chemical and other enterprises with high energy consumption and high pollutants emission. The measures to limit electricity will affect the normal production of enterprises to a certain extent, leading to not only the decrease of production efficiency, but also the increase of energy consumption and pollutant emission per unit product. Energy management measures such as differentiated electricity price have limited effect on the output of “two high” industrial products, and the economic leverage of differentiated electricity price is gradually being diluted by the price rise of end products. This paper analyzed the reasons and explored several key problems that need special attention. then recommended certain countermeasures for its appropriate application in the future.

近年来，新一轮限电潮在多地上演，部分地区甚至出现拉闸限电，主要集中在“两高”企业。以 2021 年“拉闸限 电”事件为例，该事件覆盖范围广且波及民生，不单指个别地区采取的拉闸限电措施，实则也囊括了部分省份推行的限电限产甚 至停产政策。本文对全国各地停限电要求及背后原因进行了梳理汇总和认真研究，通过省级发电量和工业增加值的同比增速比较， 分析各省能耗强度、发电量、用电量和工业增加值比对结果，受“拉闸限电”事件冲击最大的是工业企业及相关产业链，特别是 钢铁、水泥、化工、电解铝、氢化铝、硅料等“两高”企业。停限电措施会在一定程度上影响企业正常生产工艺，导致生产效率 降低、单位产品能耗和污染物排放上升，采用低效率发电替代工具，通过数据分析得出差别电价等管理手段对“两高”产品产量 的调控作用有限，且差别电价的经济杠杆作用正在被终端产品价格的上涨逐步化解。本文总结了需要重视和关注的几个问题，并 就应对举措提出了建议，为保障群众基本生活和经济平稳运行提供支撑服务。