上周独联体方坯价格加速上涨，在前一周上涨
25
美元
/
吨之后，平均又上涨
35
美元
/
吨。
Kallanish
（开阑商务信息咨询）认为，供应短缺以及上周土耳其优质重熔废钢
HMS 1/2 80:20
价格达到
350
美元
/
吨，支撑了方坯需求，而西半球季节性供应商的缺席促使市场进一步上涨。
CIS billet price increase accelleratedduring past week, gaining another $35/tonne on average, compared to the$25/t on-week increase the week prior. Widening shortage and scrapprices reaching $350/t cfr Turkey for premium HMS 1/2 80:20 last week support billetdemand, but absence of seasonal suppliers from the western hemisphereemphasises the growth further, Kallanish observes.
当周结束时，一家大型贸易商以
509
美元
/
吨
cfr
与一家土耳其钢厂达成一宗相对较大的交易，该价格相当于约
498
美元
/
吨
fob
黑海。另一家贸易商在以
510
美元
/
吨
cfr
谈判一宗交易。尽管土耳其螺纹钢价格持平，土耳其对方坯的购买意向在
500-510
美元
/
吨
cfr
，因目的地、尺寸、等级和数量而异。虽然贸易商报告称询盘明显增加，为螺纹钢市场带来希望，但土耳其螺纹钢价格保持在前一周的
520
美元
/
吨
fob
，并未上涨。
The week ended with a large traderselling a relatively large lot to a Turkish mill at $509/t cfr, netting back toaround $498/t fob Black Sea. Another trader was negotiating a sale at $510/tcfr. Turkish demand was pegged at $500-510/t cfr depending on destination,size, grade and volume, regardless of the fact that Turkish rebar have notmoved up from its $520/t fob mark last week, despite traders reporting adefinite increase in enquiries, shining hope for this week's developments inrebar market, traders note.
虽然方坯价格几乎达到与螺纹钢价格相同的水平，但需求坚挺，部分原因是废钢价格上涨，部分原因是供应短缺。季节性供应商，如巴西，没有像往常那样在市场上提供冬季供应，原因是巴西和南美地区对所有产品的需求都在升温。但市场上仍有一些紧张情绪，因为贸易商急于在年底锁定利润，考虑到市场仍存在很高的波动因素，
3,000-5,000
吨的小批量方坯交易特别受欢迎。
Although the price of billet is movingpractically to the same level as rebar price, demand is firm, partially due toscrap price rise, and partially on the back of the shortage. Seasonalsuppliers, such as Brazil, are not in the market to offer its traditionalwinter volumes, as demand in Brazil and wider South America for all products isheating up. But there is still some nervousness in the market, as traders arekeen to lock in profits towards the end of the year, and considering remaininghigh volatility factors in the market, it is the smaller, 3,000-5,000t billetlots that are particularly popular.
“
如果市场继续上涨，你可以获得丰厚的利润，但如果市场下跌，你也不会亏损太多，
”
一位贸易商解释道。
"You can make a nice profit ifmarket continues to move up, but if it goes down, you are not losing too much,"one trader explains.
另一位消息人士称，几周前没有贸易商参与的空间，而现在贸易商成为市场上的决定因素。他指出，目前多头并不受欢迎，而钢厂也不急于打折，不愿让出任何利润。他说，由于受到今年市场波动的打击，市场参与者在订购时似乎更加冷静，对过度推高市场也持谨慎态度。
Unlike several weeks ago when therewas no space for traders involvement, it is traders who are deciding the markettoday, another source says. Long positions are not popular at the moment whilemills are also not keen to discount, unwilling to give any profits away, henotes. There is also a cautiousness to inflate the market too much, as batteredby this year's volatility, participants appear to be more cold-headed in makingbookings, he says.
在黑海地区，独联体供应商正在销售
1
月生产的方坯，而一些黑海沿岸钢厂仍有一些即期货物，比当前
500
美元
/
吨
fob
的报价高出
10-20
美元
/
吨。
CIS suppliers are selling Januarycasting books in the Black Sea, while some Black Sea coastal mills are heard tostill have some prompt cargoes, commanding a $10-20/t premium, to thecurrent $500/t fob offers.
贸易商认为，方坯价格将上涨至
520-530
美元
/
吨
fob
，之后很大程度上将取决于政府对疫情相关影响的持续反应。多数消息人士预计，从
2021
年初开始，建筑业等长材消费领域将受到进一步刺激，这将推动螺纹钢需求和价格上升。
Traders current draw the line atbillet increases at $520-530/t fob, after which a lot will depend ongovernment's ongoing responses to the Covid-19 caused devastation to theeconomies. The majority of sources expect further stimulus to be directedtowards long steel products users, such as construction, starting in early2021, which will push rebar demand and prices up, at last.
“
我预计将有巨额资金用于基础设施建设，
”
一位贸易商总结道。
“
否则，政府如何从系统中消除恐惧情绪？
”
"I expect there will be huge sumsspent on infrastructure," one trader concludes. "How else are the governmentsgoing to eliminate fear from the system?"
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