【经济学人】要涨工资还是工作？|2017.04.29|总第894期

WITH Republicans in charge in Washington, the federal minimum wage is unlikely to alter soon. But debate over the impact of local pay floors is as hot as ever. Little wonder: 18 states and 22 cities and counties raised their minimum wages at the start of 2017, according to the National Employment Law Project, a campaign group. Left-wing activists have for years pushed politicians to guarantee minimum pay of $15 an hour, more than twice the federal minimum of $7.25, which last went up in 2009.

由于共和党在华盛顿执政，联邦最低工资就不可能很快更改了。但对当地最低工资的影响的争论和以往一样火热。难怪，根据国家就业法项目，即一个运动组织，18个州和22个城市和乡镇在2017年初调高了他们的最低工资。左翼活动分子多年来一直敦促政治家保证最低工资为每小时15美元，这是联邦最低限额每小时7.25美元的两倍多，联邦在2009上升了。

A new working paper by Dara Lee Luca of Mathematica Policy Research and Michael Luca of Harvard Business School looks at the impact of higher minimum wages from a new angle. Traditionally, scholars have focused on whether or not minimum wages reduce employment. But the Lucas asked something else: does it force firms out of business? In particular, they looked at the restaurant industry—about half of minimum-wage workers toil over food—in the San Francisco Bay Area, which contains 15 of the 41 cities and counties that have changed their minimum wages since 2012. Their analysis relies on data from Yelp, a restaurant-review app favoured by millennials.

数学政策研究公司的Dara Lee Luca与哈佛商学院的Michael Luca Dara Lee Luca一起做的一个新的工作报告从新的角度的影响看待调高的最低工资。传统上，学者们关注的是最低工资是否减少就业。但是Lucas 问了另外一个问题：它是否迫使企业破产？特别是，他们关注了餐馆业—大约一半的最低工资工人在旧金山湾地区辛辛苦苦维持生计，其中包含自2012起，已改变了他们的最低工资的41个城市和乡镇中的15个。他们分析依赖的数据来自受千禧一代喜爱的餐厅点评APP Yelp。

• toil over  v.辛辛苦苦

The Lucas found that a restaurant has, on average, a one-in-250 chance of closing in any given month. Whether or not the odds change when the minimum wage rises seems to depend on the quality of the eatery—or at least, on its Yelp rating. Restaurants with a coveted five-star score are barely affected; but less impressive joints are suddenly more likely to close. Restaurants with a middling rating are about 14% more likely to shut down when the minimum wage goes up by a dollar. (The authors also show that rating is distinct from price—in other words, a glorious but cheap takeaway has less to worry about than sellers of pricey but tasteless fare).

 Lucas 发现,平均而言，一家餐馆有250分之一可能性会在任何一个月倒闭。当最低工资上涨时是否可能发生变化似乎取决于餐馆的质量—至少取决于在Yelp的评级。拥有令人垂涎的五星成绩的餐馆几乎没有受到影响；但不那么令人印象深刻的联合餐馆突更可能然关闭。当最低工资上涨一美元时，中等等级的餐馆大约有14%的可能倒闭。（作者还表示，评级与价格不同，换言之，一种极好而廉价的外卖比昂贵而无味的卖家更不用担心）。

• eatery n.餐馆;饭店

The result can be spun multiple ways. If those scholars who say that overall restaurant employment is unaffected by higher minimum wages are right, the implication of the new paper is that pay floors somehow force up the quality of restaurants.（读者试译） So long as one minimum-wage worker is much like another, a laid-off waiter will be able to find a new job somewhere serving better grub.

结果由多种方式导致。（期待您的翻译，明天将会有针对这句话的长难句解析哟~）只要一个最低工资的工人和另一个工人差不多，一个下岗的服务员就能在别处找到一份更好的工作。

• grub n.食物；吃的

If those scholars are wrong, however, then the new paper supports what sceptics have said all along: that higher minimum wages, by threatening the viability of some firms, dent employment opportunities for the low-skilled. That should be food for thought.

然而，如果这些学者是错误的，那么新的文件就支持了持怀疑态度的人一直在说的：调高的最低工资，通过威胁一些公司的生存能力，削弱了低技能就业机会的人。那这应该是发人深省的。

• sceptic n.持怀疑态度的人;怀疑论者

• viability n.生存能力

翻译 ▍晶晶

审核 ▍晶晶

图文编辑 ▍毛毛

责任编辑 ▍毛毛