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1、政府政策的统一福利分析
摘要：本文对美国过去半个世纪以来的133项历史性政策变化进行了福利比较分析，重点分析了社会保险、教育和就业培训、税收和现金转移以及实物转移方面的政策。对每项政策，我们利用现有的因果估计来计算每项政策为其受益者提供的福利（以其支付意愿来衡量）和政策的净成本，包括对政府预算的长期影响。我们将支付意愿除以政府的净成本，形成每项政策的公共资金边际价值（MVPF）。比较不同政策的边际价值提供了一个统一的方法来评估它们对社会福利的影响。结果表明，对低收入儿童健康和教育的直接投资历来具有最高的公共资金边际价值，平均超过5。许多这样的政策已经收回了成本，因为政府通过征收额外的税收和减少转移支付来收回最初的支出成本。我们发现所有年龄段的儿童的教育和卫生政策都有很大的公共资金边际价值，而不是观察到整个童年时期的边际收益递减。我们发现针对成人的政策的公共资金边际价值较小，一般在0.5到2之间。特别是如果对成人的支出对儿童产生了巨大的溢出效应，那么对成人的支出已经超过了这个公共资金边际价值范围。我们将我们的估计值与现有的“最佳政府政策理论”联系起来，并讨论了公共资金边际价值如何为今后的研究设计提供经验。
Abstract：We conduct a comparative welfare analysis of 133 historical policy changes over the past half-century in the United States, focusing on policies in social insurance, education and job training, taxes and cash transfers, and in-kind transfers. For each policy, we use existing causal estimates to calculate the benefit that each policy provides its recipients (measured as their willingness to pay) and the policy’s net cost, inclusive of long-term effects on the government’s budget. We divide the willingness to pay by the net cost to the government to form each policy’s Marginal Value of Public Funds, or its ``MVPF''. Comparing MVPFs across policies provides a unified method of assessing their effect on social welfare. Our results suggest that direct investments in low-income children’s health and education have historically had the highest MVPFs, on average exceeding 5. Many such policies have paid for themselves as the government recouped the cost of their initial expenditures through additional taxes collected and reduced transfers. We find large MVPFs for education and health policies among children of all ages, rather than observing diminishing marginal returns throughout childhood. We find smaller MVPFs for policies targeting adults, generally between 0.5 and 2. Expenditures on adults have exceeded this MVPF range in particular if they induced large spillovers on children. We relate our estimates to existing theories of optimal government policy, and we discuss how the MVPF provides lessons for the design of future research.
原文信息：Nathaniel Hendren, Ben Sprung-Keyser, A Unified Welfare Analysis of Government Policies, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 135, Issue 3, August 2020, Pages 1209–1318,
2、场外序贯谈判：来自百万在线议价互动的证据
摘要：本文使用丰富的新数据集研究双边议价情景下的行为模式，该数据集描述了来自eBay的Best Offer平台的2500多万个列表中发生的来回序贯议价行为。我们将观察到的行为与大量理论讨价还价文献的预测进行比较。正如完全信息模型所预测，三分之一的讨价还价互动以立即达成协议而告终。大多数议价行为则表现不同——谈判以不同意或延迟同意结束，这已被不完全信息模型合理化。我们发现，更强的讨价还价能力和更好的外部选择会改善代理人的结果。本文还发现了现有模型不能理性化的行为，包括互惠（和渐进）让步行为和延迟不同意。本文的另一个发现是，消费者表现出对提出和接受报价的偏好，这些偏好将最近两次报价的差额分割开来。这些观察结果表明，行为规范在谈判结果的成功中发挥着重要作用。
Abstract：We study patterns of behavior in bilateral bargaining situations using a rich new data set describing back-and-forth sequential bargaining occurring in over 25 million listings from eBay’s Best Offer platform. We compare observed behavior to predictions from the large theoretical bargaining literature. One-third of bargaining interactions end in immediate agreement, as predicted by complete-information models. The majority of sequences play out differently, ending in disagreement or delayed agreement, which have been rationalized by incomplete information models. We find that stronger bargaining power and better outside options improve agents’ outcomes. Robust empirical findings that existing models cannot rationalize include reciprocal (and gradual) concession behavior and delayed disagreement. Another robust pattern at odds with existing theory is that players exhibit a preference for making and accepting offers that split the difference between the two most recent offers. These observations suggest that behavioral norms, which are neither incorporated nor explained by existing theories, play an important role in the success of bargaining outcomes.
原文信息：Matthew Backus, Thomas Blake, Brad Larsen, Steven Tadelis, Sequential Bargaining in the Field: Evidence from Millions of Online Bargaining Interactions, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 135, Issue 3, August 2020, Pages 1319–1361,
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3、所见即所得
摘要：新闻报道和传播本身就受到空间、时间和注意力的限制。因此，新闻作者往往以信息与观众的先验信念的相似性作为决定是否分享一条信息的条件，这就产生了样本选择问题。本文通过实验研究了人们在这些情境中是如何形成信念的，特别是统计推理中错误背后的机制。本文记录发现，大量实验参与者遵循简单的 "所见即所得 "的启发式方法。根据这种方法，参与者专门考虑眼前的信息，并直接用样本均值来估计人群均值。一系列旨在识别机制的处理表明，对于许多参与者来说，根本没有想到未观察到的信号。本文还提供了因果证据，证据表明不正确的心理模型的频率是计算决策问题的复杂性的函数。这些结果表明，脑海中出现的东西与背景有关，并由此导致信念更新的错误。
Abstract：News reports and communication are inherently constrained by space, time, and attention. As a result, news sources often condition the decision of whether to share a piece of information on the similarity between the signal and the prior belief of the audience, which generates a sample selection problem. This article experimentally studies how people form beliefs in these contexts, in particular the mechanisms behind errors in statistical reasoning. I document that a substantial fraction of experimental participants follows a simple “what you see is all there is” heuristic, according to which participants exclusively consider information that is right in front of them, and directly use the sample mean to estimate the population mean. A series of treatments aimed at identifying mechanisms suggests that for many participants, unobserved signals do not even come to mind. I provide causal evidence that the frequency of such incorrect mental models is a function of the computational complexity of the decision problem. These results point to the context dependence of what comes to mind and the resulting errors in belief updating.
原文信息：Benjamin Enke, What You See Is All There Is, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 135, Issue 3, August 2020, Pages 1363–1398,
4、记忆，注意力和选择
摘要：基于教科书上对联想记忆的描述（Kahana，2012），本文提出了一个选择模型，在这个模型中，选项提示了对类似过去经验的回忆。记忆以两种方式塑造价值观和方法论。首先，回忆的经验形成了一个规范，作为价值观的初始锚。第二，异于正常的突出质量和价格意外导致估值的大幅调整。该模型统一了许多著名的选择难题，包括归因和投射偏差，对隐藏原因的不注意，背景对比效应，以及依赖于情境的支付意愿。整合这些选择性记忆和人们对惊喜的注意的偏差，产生了多种新的预测。
Abstract：Building on a textbook description of associative memory (Kahana 2012), we present a model of choice in which a choice option cues recall of similar past experiences. Memory shapes valuation and decisions in two ways. First, recalled experiences form a norm, which serves as an initial anchor for valuation. Second, salient quality and price surprises relative to the norm lead to large adjustments in valuation. The model unifies many well-documented choice puzzles, including the attribution and projection biases, inattention to hidden attributes, background contrast effects, and context-dependent willingness to pay. Unifying these puzzles on the basis of selective memory and attention to surprise yields multiple new predictions.
原文信息：Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, Memory, Attention, and Choice, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 135, Issue 3, August 2020, Pages 1399–1442,
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5、金融市场风险感知与宏观经济
摘要：本文提供证据表明，金融市场风险感知是经济波动的重要驱动因素。我们引入一种新的风险感知度量方法：波动性股票价格（PVSt），其定义为低波动性股票的账面价值与市场价值比率，减去高波动性股票的账面价值与市场价值比率。当从调查和期权价格直接测量的感知风险较低时，波动性股票价格为高。利用该方法，本文发现，高感知风险与低无风险利率、高风险企业的资本成本以及未来产出和实际投资的下降有关。以波动性股票价格衡量的感知风险在积极的宏观经济新闻之后会下降。可以预见的是，在这些下降之后，感知风险会被向上修正，这表明投资者风险感知的波动并不完全理性。
Abstract：We provide evidence that financial market risk perceptions are important drivers of economic fluctuations. We introduce a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVSt), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVSt is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and option prices is low. Using our measure, we show that high perceived risk is associated with low risk-free interest rates, a high cost of capital for risky firms, and future declines in output and real investment. Perceived risk as measured by PVSt falls after positive macroeconomic news. These declines are predictably followed by upward revisions in perceived risk, indicating that fluctuations in investor risk perceptions are not fully rational.
原文信息：Carolin Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane, Adi Sunderam, Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 135, Issue 3, August 2020, Pages 1443–1491,
6、需求衰退和投机的以风险为中心的模型
摘要：本文为新凯恩斯模型提供了一个连续时间的 "以风险为中心 "的表述。当产出由总需求决定时，用这个模型可以分析资产价格、金融投机和宏观经济结果之间的相互作用。原则上，利率政策在应对资产估值的冲击是非常有效的。然而，在实践中，货币政策面临着广泛的约束。如果这些制约因素严重，风险资产估值的下降就会产生需求衰退。这将降低收益，并在资产价格和总需求之间产生负反馈循环。在衰退阶段，平均信念很重要，因为它们不仅影响资产估值，还决定了放大机制的强度。在繁荣前阶段，信念分歧（或异质性资产估值）很重要，因为它们会诱导投资者进行投机。这种投机会在经济向衰退过渡时，减少高估值投资者的财富，从而降低（财富加权下的）平均投资信心，从而加剧崩盘。在经济繁荣时期限制投机的宏观审慎政策，就可以在经济衰退时期通过提高资产价格和总需求，从而帕累托改善福利。
Abstract：We provide a continuous-time “risk-centric” representation of the New Keynesian model, which we use to analyze the interactions between asset prices, financial speculation, and macroeconomic outcomes when output is determined by aggregate demand. In principle, interest rate policy is highly effective in dealing with shocks to asset valuations. However, in practice monetary policy faces a wide range of constraints. If these constraints are severe, a decline in risky asset valuations generates a demand recession. This reduces earnings and generates a negative feedback loop between asset prices and aggregate demand. In the recession phase, average beliefs matter because they not only affect asset valuations but also determine the strength of the amplification mechanism. In the ex ante boom phase, belief disagreements (or heterogeneous asset valuations) matter because they induce investors to speculate. This speculation exacerbates the crash by reducing high-valuation investors’ wealth when the economy transitions to recession, which depresses (wealth-weighted) average beliefs. Macroprudential policy that restricts speculation in the boom can Pareto improve welfare by increasing asset prices and aggregate demand in the recession.
原文信息：Ricardo J Caballero, Alp Simsek, A Risk-Centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 135, Issue 3, August 2020, Pages 1493–1566,
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7、美国大学之间的收入隔离和代际流动
摘要：本文利用脱敏税务记录数据，构建了美国每所大学的父母收入和学生收入结果的公开统计数据集。这些统计数据显示，各大学之间的父母收入隔离程度非常高，类似于邻里之间的隔离。低收入家庭和高收入家庭的孩子在大学后的收入差异，在就读同一所大学的学生中，要比在不同大学之间的学生之间差异小得多。收入结果最好的大学主要招收高收入家庭的学生，尽管少数中等水平的公立大学既有家长收入水平低，又有学生收入高。将这些收入数据与SAT和ACT成绩联系起来，我们模拟了学生在大学分配上的变化如何影响收入隔离和代际流动。以考试成绩为条件，使父母收入群体的申请、录取和预录取率均等化，将大大减少收入隔离现象，这主要是通过增加中产阶级学生的大学选择性。然而，这些政策对精英私立大学中低收入学生的比例影响不大，因为来自低收入家庭的SAT/ACT成绩足够高的学生相对较少。通过在申请和录取过程中，给予中低收入学生类似于精英私立学院隐性给予家族学生（legacy student）的优先权，可以消除各学院家长收入分配的差异。假设80%的观察到的学生收入差异是由大学的因果效应造成的，这样的改变可以将大学生的代际收入持续率降低约25%。我们的结论是，即使不改变学院的教育项目，改变学生在学院之间的分配方式也可以大大减少收入隔离，增加代际流动。
Abstract：We construct publicly available statistics on parents’ incomes and students’ earnings outcomes for each college in the United States using deidentified data from tax records. These statistics reveal that the degree of parental income segregation across colleges is very high, similar to that across neighborhoods. Differences in postcollege earnings between children from low- and high-income families are much smaller among students who attend the same college than across colleges. Colleges with the best earnings outcomes predominantly enroll students from high-income families, although a few mid-tier public colleges have both low parent income levels and high student earnings. Linking these income data to SAT and ACT scores, we simulate how changes in the allocation of students to colleges affect segregation and intergenerational mobility. Equalizing application, admission, and matriculation rates across parental income groups conditional on test scores would reduce segregation substantially, primarily by increasing the representation of middle-class students at more selective colleges. However, it would have little effect on the fraction of low-income students at elite private colleges because there are relatively few students from low-income families with sufficiently high SAT/ACT scores. Differences in parental income distributions across colleges could be eliminated by giving low- and middle-income students a sliding-scale preference in the application and admissions process similar to that implicitly given to legacy students at elite private colleges. Assuming that 80% of observational differences in students’ earnings conditional on test scores, race, and parental income are due to colleges’ causal effects—a strong assumption, but one consistent with prior work—such changes could reduce intergenerational income persistence among college students by about 25%. We conclude that changing how students are allocated to colleges could substantially reduce segregation and increase intergenerational mobility, even without changing colleges’ educational programs.
原文信息：Raj Chetty, John N Friedman, Emmanuel Saez, Nicholas Turner, Danny Yagan, Income Segregation and Intergenerational Mobility Across Colleges in the United States, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 135, Issue 3, August 2020, Pages 1567–1633,
8、工作场所知识流动
摘要：我们在一家销售公司开展了一个实验，以检验改善同事之间的知识流动是否会影响生产力。我们的设计使我们能够比较不同的管理实践，并分离出知识传播的摩擦是主要存在于知识寻求者、知识提供者，还是两者都存在。我们发现，减少知识寻求者摩擦的处理方法能带来巨大的生产率提升。在结构化会议中，被鼓励向随机选择的伙伴寻求建议的工人，其平均销售收益超过15%。这些效果在实验结束后至少持续了20周。实验以与合作伙伴的共同产出相联系的激励形式，旨在改变知识提供者分享信息的意愿，带来了积极的但短暂的销售收益。指导同事分享知识提高了平均生产力，减少了工人之间的产出分散，突出了管理实践在公司内部产生溢出效应的作用。
Abstract：We conducted a field experiment in a sales firm to test whether improving knowledge flows between coworkers affects productivity. Our design allows us to compare different management practices and isolate whether frictions to knowledge transmission primarily reside with knowledge seekers, knowledge providers, or both. We find large productivity gains from treatments that reduced frictions for knowledge seekers. Workers who were encouraged to seek advice from a randomly chosen partner during structured meetings had average sales gains exceeding 15%. These effects lasted at least 20 weeks after the experiment ended. Treatments intended to change knowledge providers’ willingness to share information, in the form of incentives tied to partners’ joint output, led to positive—but transitory—sales gains. Directing coworkers to share knowledge raised average productivity and reduced output dispersion between workers, highlighting the role that management practices play in generating spillovers inside the firm.
原文信息：Jason J Sandvik, Richard E Saouma, Nathan T Seegert, Christopher T Stanton, Workplace Knowledge Flows, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 135, Issue 3, August 2020, Pages 1635–1680,
9、理性的注意力不集中，竞争性供给和计量心理学
摘要：本文介绍了一种从选择数据中恢复注意力成本的简单方法。该方法建立在与生产理论的精确类比之上。注意力成本决定了消费者的需求和消费者的福利，就像竞争厂商的技术决定了它的供给曲线和利润一样。本文通过实验实现了恢复方法，随之概述了应用，并将我们的工作与更广泛的关于注意力不集中和错误决策的文献联系起来。
Abstract：We introduce a simple method of recovering attention costs from choice data. Our method rests on a precise analogy with production theory. Costs of attention determine consumer demand and consumer welfare, just as a competitive firm’s technology determines its supply curve and profits. We implement our recovery method experimentally, outline applications, and link our work to the broader literature on inattention and mistaken decisions.
