本周关注：1、韩国烟草KT&G发布22Q3季报：
22Q3实现收入1.62万亿韩元，同比增长8.5%，创下历史最高纪录，主要由于国内外电子烟行业和海外香烟企业的增长，实现净利润4631.4 亿韩元，同比增长29%；2、日本正迈向无烟未来：多项研究证实加热烟草流行导致卷烟销量下降。
Market highlights: KT&G’s 22Q3 record earnings; Japan HNB gains market share
We highlight two events in the tobacco market last week:
1)Korea Tobacco and Ginseng (KT&G) released 22Q3 results, setting new record high revenue of KRW1.62tr, up 8.5% yoy, driven mainly by growth in its global e-cigarette business as well as its foreign cigarette operations. Net profit came to KRW463.14bn, up 29% yoy.
2)Japan is heading to a smoke-free future: studies reveal that the preponderance of heat-not-burn (HNB) tobacco products has eroded cigarette sales.
1、韩国烟草KT&G 22Q3收入创历史最高纪录，在国内推出新加热不燃烧产品
根据KT&G公告，22Q1-Q3公司实现收入4.44万亿韩元，同比增长11.6%，其中22Q3实现收入1.62万亿韩元，同比增长8.5%，创下历史最高纪录，主要由于国内外电子烟行业和海外香烟企业的增长，22Q3实现净利润4631.4亿韩元（约3.25亿美元)，同比增长29%。公司称在韩国国内市场，加热不燃烧产品的销售增加，海外市场由于韩元兑美元汇率走弱以及销售增加，进一步提振利润。根据韩国银行(Bank of Korea)数据，22Q3美元对韩元的平均汇率从去年同期的1157韩元升至1338韩元。在韩国国内市场，KT&G 22Q3香烟销量为110.5亿支，比去年同期的110.9亿支减少0.4%，占据当地卷烟市场65%的份额；海外随着新兴市场需求的增长，公司22Q3海外销量从去年同期的94亿支跃升至122亿支，同比增长30%。截至22Q3 KT&G总销售额的90%来自香烟事业部，10%来自加热不燃烧事业部。近年公司持续努力扩大非香烟产品销售，于2022年11月16日首次向韩国国内客户推出lil ABLE加热不燃烧产品以及其高级版本lil ABLE PREMIUM。
(1) KT&G: record 22Q3 revenue; launches new HNB product in South Korea
•Key financials:
the company posted revenue of KRW4.44tr in 22Q1-3, an increase of 11.6% yoy. Q3 revenue set a new record at KRW1.62tr, growing 8.5% yoy, mainly due to growth in its global e-cigarette business and foreign cigarette operations; net profit in the quarter amounted to KRW463.14bn (about USD325m), up 29% yoy.
•HNB
growth boosted Korean market sales while a weaker KRW boosted sales and profits in its foreign markets, the company said. The USD rose to an average of KRW1,338 in 22Q3 from KRW1,157 in 21Q3.
•Cigarettes:
in its Korean market, cigarette sales fell 0.4% yoy to 11.05bn units in 22Q3 (from 11.09bn units in 21Q3) and accounted for 65% of the Korean cigarette market. Higher demand in emerging markets led foreign sales to climb 30% yoy to 12.2bn units in 22Q3 (from 9.4bn units in 21Q3).
•
Smoke vs smokeless:
the cigarette business accounts for 90% of KT&G’s total sales, with HNB generating the remaining 10%. Efforts in recent years have focused on expanding non-cigarette sales and the company launched lil ABLE products and the advanced version, lil ABLE Premium, to Korean customers on 16 Nov 2022.
2、日本正迈向无烟未来：多项研究证实加热烟草流行导致卷烟销量下降
根据世界卫生组织数据，目前世界上有超过10亿烟民，预计这一数字将在2025年之前保持稳定，而有机会改用经过科学证实的、更好的替代品可能是加速吸烟人数下降的关键。在一些国家（如英国和新西兰），使用受管制的新型烟草和尼古丁产品被视为未戒烟者的适当替代品，公共卫生机构亦鼓励使用它们。其中日本尤其值得关注，尽管缺乏鼓励转换的正式减害政策，但许多吸烟者已转而使用电子烟和加热烟草等新型烟草产品。自 2014 年推出 IQOS 和加热烟草产品以来，IQOS市场份额逐年增长，截至22Q3达23.4%。美国癌症协会的的一项研究亦表明，随着加热烟草产品在日本的推出，日本的卷烟销量呈下降趋势，研究人员对销售数据应用了多种替代因果模型，发现如果不考虑加热烟草产品在该国的引入，很难解释卷烟销量的下降。《国际环境研究与公共卫生杂志》的第二项独立研究报告亦表示，2015-2019 年间，日本卷烟总销量下降34%，而加热烟草产品的销量从51 亿支增加到371亿支，日本纯卷烟销量的加速下降对应于加热烟草产品销量的推出和增长。
(2) Japan en route to a smoke-free society; studies show HNB is killing cigarettes
Smokers around the world currently number more than 1bn, according to the World Health Organization, and it expects this number to hold stable until 2025E. The key to accelerating the decline in smoking lies in a switch to better alternatives that are scientifically proven, in our view. Countries such as the UK and New Zealand consider regulated new tobacco and nicotine products to be appropriate alternatives for smokers who have yet to quit smoking and public health agencies encourage their use.
Japan presents an interesting case study. Many smokers have switched to new tobacco products, such as e-cigarettes and HNB, despite the lack of formal harm-reduction policies to encourage the switch. Since the launch of IQOS and HNB products in 2014, IQOS’ market share has grown every year to reach 23.4% yoy in 22Q3. An American Cancer Society study shows that cigarette sales in Japan declined with the introduction of HNB in Japan. Researchers applied a variety of alternative causal models to sales data and concluded that it was difficult to explain the decline in cigarette sales without considering the introduction of HNB in the country. Another independent study by the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health found that Japan’s cigarette sales fell 34% over 2015-19, while HNB sales rose from 5.1bn units to 37.1bn units during the period. Japan’s sharp decline in cigarette sales correlates with the launch and growth of HNB product sales.
