事件：
MSFT公佈FY2025Q1財報，其中收入爲656億美元，同比+16.0%（超彭博一致預期1.7%）；毛利率爲69.4%，同比-1.8pcts（略超彭博一致預期0.5%）；調整後營業利潤率爲46.7%，同比-0.9pcts（超彭博一致預期2.7%）；EPS爲3.30美元，同比+10.4%（超彭博一致預期6.2%）。
內容
FY25Q1E revenue beat expectations and rose 16% yoy; EPS up 10% yoy
Microsoft released unaudited FY25Q1E (June to September 2024) results on 30 Oct:
•Revenue came to USD65.6bn, up 16.0% yoy (1.7% better than the Bloomberg consensus forecast (BBG));
•Gross margin narrowed 1.8ppt yoy to 69.4% (0.5ppt better than BBG);
•Adjusted operating margin narrowed 0.9ppt yoy to 46.7% (2.7ppt above BBG);
•EPS rose 10.4% yoy to USD3.30 (6.2% better than BBG).
分業務看：
生產力和業務流程業務收入283億美元，按固定匯率計算同比+13%（超彭博一致預期16.8%）。更多個人計算業務收入132億美元，按固定匯率計算同比+17%（略超彭博一致預期0.4%）。
智能雲業務收入241億美元，按固定匯率計算同比+21%（低於彭博一致預期7.1%），且同比增速相較於FY24Q4（20%）有所上升。其中Azure營收按固定匯率計算同比+34%，超越彭博一致預期的32%。本季度超預期的結果部分得益於當期收入確認的小幅收益。FY25Q1期間AI服務爲Azure營收創造了12%的增長，非AI對Azure增長的貢獻環比-1pct。
We look at the revenue breakdown by business segment in FY25Q1E:
•Productivity and business processes
(PBP): USD28.3bn revenue, up 13% yoy at constant currency (16.8% better than BBG).
•More Personal Computing
(MPC): USD13.2bn revenue, up 17% yoy at constant currency (slightly above BBG by 0.4%).
•Smart cloud:
USD24.1bn revenue, up 21% yoy at constant currency (7.1% lower than BBG), with the yoy growth rate higher than the 20% in FY24Q4:
-Azure generated 34% yoy more revenue (constant currency), 32% better than BBG, partly due to a small gain in revenue recognition.
-AI services contributed 12ppt of Azure revenue growth (flat qoq), while non-AI services contributed 1ppt less qoq to Azure growth.
資本支出超預期：
微軟本季度資本支出（包括融資租賃）達200億美元。可比資本支出爲149億美元，同比+50.5%，環比+7.6%（超越彭博一致預期2.6%）。公司指出，雲和AI相關支出中約一半用於支持未來15年及以上的長期資產變現。剩餘的雲和AI支出主要用於服務器，包括CPU和GPU。
Heavier capex than expected:
including finance leases, capex amounted to USD20bn in FYQ1E, with cash paid for property, plants and equipment at USD14.9bn, up 50.5% yoy and 7.6% qoq (and 2.6% more than BBG). The company noted that about half of its cloud and AI-related expenditure was long-term in nature and would support asset monetization for the next 15 years or more, with the rest spent primarily on servers, including CPUs and GPUs.
Copilot推進持續加速：
GitHub Copilot的Copilot Enterprise客戶環比增長55%；Microsoft 365 Copilot日活用戶環比翻倍。目前有近70%的財富500強企業使用Microsoft 365 Copilot。公司指出，Vodafone將向68,000名員工部署該產品，估計每人每週平均節省3小時；UBS將部署50,000個席位，併成爲金融服務業最大規模的部署。此外，目前已有近60萬家組織使用Power Platform的AI功能，同比增長達4倍。Copilot Studio已有超過10萬家組織使用，環比增長超過2倍，Dynamics 365 Copilot月活用戶環比增長超過60%。公司指出，E5與 Copilot 365 在本季度繼續貢獻ARPU增長。
Copilot push:
GitHub Copilot Enterprise customers grew 55% qoq in the quarter, while daily active users of Microsoft 365 Copilot doubled qoq. Currently, nearly 70% of Fortune 500 companies use M365 Copilot. Microsoft noted Vodafone will deploy the product to 68,000 employees after a trial showed it saved 3 hours per week per person on average. UBS will deploy 50,000 seats, the company's largest deal to date in the financial services industry. In addition, nearly 600,000 organizations currently use Power Platform’s AI capabilities, a four-fold increase yoy. Copilot Studio is now used by more than 100,000 organizations, a more than two-fold increase qoq, and Dynamics 365 Copilot's monthly active users increased more than 60% qoq. The company noted that E5 and M365 Copilot continued to contribute to ARPU growth in the quarter.
公司FY25Q2指引：
1）預計生產力和業務流程業務收入在287億美元到290億美元，（按固定匯率計算）同比預計增長10%～11%，預計更多個人計算業務收入在138.5億美元到142.5億美元；
2）預計智能雲業務收入在255.5億美元到258.5億美元，（按固定匯率計算）同比預計增長18%～20%，其中Azure按固定匯率計算的收入增長率將在31%～32%，增速放緩是由於第三方交付的供應推遲；預計AI服務的貢獻將與Q1類似，並預計FY25H2期間Azure收入增速將由於供應增加而加速；
3）預計營收成本將以固定匯率增長11%至13%，即219億至221億美元之間；預計營業費用將以固定匯率增長約7%，即164億至165億美元之間，營業利潤率預計將有所上升；
4）預計AI業務在Q2將達到100億美元的年化營收；
5）鑑於雲和AI的強勁需求，公司預計將繼續增加資本支出。隨着需求增長和資本積累，後續資本支出增速將會放緩，而收入增速仍會持續上升。
FY25Q2E guidance: PBP revenue up 10-11% yoy and smart cloud up 18-20% yoy
Revenue projections:
Microsoft expects the following metrics in FYQ2E:
•PBP
would generate USD28.7bn-29bn revenue, up 10-11% yoy (constant currency), based on the company's expectations.
•MPC
would bring in revenue of USD13.85bn-14.25bn.
•Smart cloud
business would generate revenue of USD25.55bn-25.85bn, up 18-20% yoy (constant currency):
-Azure:
revenue growth would slow to 31-32% yoy (constant currency) in FYQ2E on delays in third-party deliveries; in FYH2E, the company expects revenue growth will pace faster on an increase in available capacity.
-AI services:
Microsoft anticipates this business will contribute similar revenue in FYQ2E as it did in FYQ1, and FYQ2E could bring full-year revenue to USD10bn.
Profitability projections:
•COGS: Microsoft expects cost of goods sold will increase 11-13% (constant currency) to USD21.9bn-22.1bn in FYQ2E.
•Operating expenses would increase by about 7% (constant currency) to USD16.4bn-16.5bn.
•Operating margin would also expand.
•Capex: in light of strong demand for cloud and AI services, the company expects capex will keep increasing to keep pace with growing demand, until it has amassed sufficient capital assets, when capex growth would then shrink, while revenue growth would continue to increase.
