24Q1業績情況：
24Q1汽車銷售收入243億元，同比+32.3%，總收入256億元，同比+36.4%；整體毛利率爲20.6%，上個季度毛利率23.5%；汽車毛利率19.3%。Q1總費用58.7億，同比增長71.4%，其中研發費用30億，同比增長64.6%，銷售費用30億，同比增長81%；調後歸母淨利潤13億元，同比-9.7%。
24Q1E car sales up 32% yoy with total revenue growth at 36% yoy
Key metrics:
Li Auto recently released unaudited 24Q1E results with automobile sales revenue at RMB24.3bn (up 32.3% yoy) and total revenue at RMB25.6bn (up 36.4% yoy). Other key metrics were:
•Gross margins: automobile GPM at 19.3% and total GPM at 20.6% in 24Q1E (vs 23.5% in 23Q4).
•Expenses came to RMB5.87bn in Q1E (up 71.4% yoy), comprising R&D at RMB3bn (up 64.6% yoy) and sales at RMB3bn (up 81% yoy).
•Adjusted net profit amounted to RMB1.3bn (down 9.7% yoy).
銷量情況：
理想24Q1共交付80400臺，同比+53%；4月理想交付量2.58萬輛，同比+0.4%。一季度銷量增速放緩的背景下，或認爲競爭格局惡化、理想競爭力下滑等，我們認爲更多是淡季需求（beta層面因素）導致。理想於4月18日發佈理想L6，截至5月5日定單超過41000臺，我們此前預期L6將是理想產品價格帶下沉與今年增量的核心主力車型，我們維持預期看好其在25-30w市場突破理想單車月銷新高，維持穩態月銷預期1.5-2萬輛。
純電平臺延後：
原本預計下半年的純電SUV車型均延後至明年上半年，原因主要爲5c超快充基礎設施搭建和門店升級。理想內部認爲要將純電賣好，補能體驗是重要突破口之一。
降價後的毛利預期：
2024年4月22日理想公佈在售車型全新價格體系：L系列定價下調1.8-2萬、Mega下調3萬至53萬起。降價後單車收入預計下滑至28.5-29萬元，我們預計單車成本爲23萬元左右，對應全年汽車毛利率依然爲19-20%。我們判斷2Q或是毛利低點，汽車毛利預期18%，主要是L6爬坡和在售車型降價導致。毛利在後續季度有望隨着爬坡和產品矩陣持續優化。
業績指引：
公司預計24Q2有一定壓力，銷量在105000 至 110000 輛之間，同比增長21.3%至27.1%。公司預計24Q2總收入在299億元人民幣至314億元人民幣之間，同比增長4.2%至9.4%。公司在延後純電平臺發佈的情況下，全年銷量指引依舊維持56w-64w，我們認爲目標是將增程平臺的四款車型走出更多的量。
Q1 operational metrics: 53% yoy more deliveries; beta factors dragged qoq sales
Sales volumes:
Li Auto delivered 80,400 vehicles in Q1E (up 53% yoy) and subsequently delivered 25,800 cars in April (up 0.4% yoy). The slower qoq sales growth in Q1E could suggest worsening competitiveness but we would attribute beta factors and off-season demand. Li Auto launched L6, its five-seat premium family SUV, on 18 April, whose orders had climbed past 41,000 cars as of 5 May. In a previous report, we stated our view that the L6 would drive growth in 2024E as the company’s lower-end flagship model. We expect the model will set a new monthly sales record for the company’s RMB250,000-300,000 price band. We maintain our monthly sales forecast at 15,000-20,000 cars.
BEV SUVs postponed:
Li Auto postponed to 25H1E the launch of its battery electric sport utility vehicle models previously slated for 24H2E to accommodate the construction of its 5C supercharging infrastructure and store upgrades. The company believes the charging infrastructure is a key element of user experience that could drive strong sales of its BEVs, otherwise known as pure-electric vehicles.
Post-price cuts profitability:
Li Auto announced new price cuts on 22 April that reduced pricing of the L series models by RMB18,000-20,000 each and the Mega by RMB30,000. With the on-sale pricing range starting at RMB530,000, per-vehicle revenue would drop to RMB285,000-290,000, although our estimated per-vehicle cost of about RMB230,000 has annual car gross margin remaining steady at 19-20%. We believe Q2E represents the bottom of the gross margin trend with car gross margin at 18%, mainly due to the L6 ramp-up and the price cuts. We expect to see gross profit improvements as the product matrix expands in subsequent quarters.
Q2E guidance:
anticipating some pressure ahead, Li Auto expects to sell 105,000- 110,000 vehicles in 24Q2E, up 21.3-27.1% yoy. It guides total revenue at RMB29.9bn-31.4bn in Q2E, up 4.2-9.4% yoy. Even with the company postponing the launch of its BEV SUV models, its 2024E sales guidance remains at 560,000-640,000 cars. We believe its goal is to sell more of its four extended-range models.
中長期增長點：
1）純電平臺的增量 – 延後至25H1，依靠5C超快充和空間定義依然有望在30-50萬價格帶將純電車型做出較好增量。2）出海 – 據財經報道，公司已有出海計劃儲備，今年或將在中東佈局。3）智能化 - 我們強調未來3年智能化或成爲車企的最核心競爭力，來自頭部新勢力車企的技術+數據飛輪將構築更深的產品力壁壘。
Longer-term outlook: BEV SUVs next year set to drive incremental growth
•Bigger BEV line-up:
Li Auto’s upcoming BEV SUV models in 25H1E would shine the light on its 5C supercharging network and spaciousness differentials. We expect they will drive incremental growth in the RMB300,000-500,000 price band.
•Exports to Middle East:
the company’s export plans could include the Middle East this year, as detailed in its financial report.
•Intelligentization:
we reiterate our stance that smart driving could become the key competitive differentiator for car companies in the next three years. We believe the flywheel growth effect of new energy market leaders’ tech and data capabilities could raise product barriers.
