新管理層上任來組織架構持續調整，回購菜鳥股票加大投入菜鳥。 2023年9月阿里新管理層上任以來持續進行組織架構及策略調整。阿里最初於2023年5月宣佈了一項全面的資產重組計劃，其中包括菜鳥的IPO。當時阿里認爲單獨上市更能體現菜鳥作爲阿里重要業務的價值。但到目前情況已發生變化，綜合考量，現在IPO無法凸顯菜鳥的內在價值。2024年3月26日阿里集團宣佈撤回菜鳥IPO申請，並計劃收購菜鳥員工和少數股東股權擬37.5億美元，目前阿里巴巴集團擁有菜鳥約 63.7% 的完全稀釋股份權益，我們認爲這將有利於淘天集團、阿里國際數字商業集團的戰略協同。
Cainiao rethink: full stake in logistics unit would firm ecommerce synergy
Alibaba (Ali) evidently reevaluated current conditions and announced on 26 March it had scrapped plans to separately list its logistics arm Cainiao Smart Logistics Network in favor of owning the full stake in the business. It currently has a 63.7% fully diluted equity interest in Cainiao and plans to buy up the remaining shares for USD3.75bn from employees and minority shareholders. Ali had announced an asset restructuring plan in May last year that included an IPO for Cainiao, believing at the time it would better reflect Cainiao’s intrinsic value. This relates to Ali’s comprehensive strategic overhaul, which kicked off in September 2023 when its new management took office. We regard the latest move as beneficial to Ali, as it would tighten the strategic synergy of Taobao-Tmall and the Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC) unit.
FY24Q3（自然年2023Q4）：收入基本符合預期，上調股份回購額度
本季度阿里實現收入2603.48億元，yoy+5%，基本符合一致預期。經營利潤爲225.11億元，yoy-36%，主要由於阿里巴巴集團持股的高鑫零售無形資產減值和優酷商譽減值所致。經調整EBITA爲528.43億元，yoy+2%，符合一致預期。Non-GAAP淨利潤爲479.51億元，yoy-4%，歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤爲144.33億元。
FYQ3 (Oct-Dec) results: revenue in line; non-GAAP net profit down 4% yoy
Key metrics:
Ali generated RMB260.35bn revenue in FY24Q3 (Oct-Dec 2023), up 5% yoy, largely in line with consensus expectation. Operating profit fell 36% yoy to RMB22.51bn in the quarter, dragged by Ali’s intangible asset impairment at Sun Art Retail and goodwill impairment at Youku. Adjusted EBITA nudged up 2% yoy to RMB52.84bn, in line with consensus; but non-GAAP net profit fell 4% yoy to RMB47.95bn, while net profit arrived at RMB14.43bn in the last quarter of the calendar year.
中國商業：GMV增長穩定，淘寶貨幣化率正改善提升。FY24Q3收入1290.70億元，yoy+2%，經調整EBITDA爲559億元yoy+1%。
主要由於線上GMV yoy穩定增長，雖單均金額有所下跌，但交易買家數和訂單量增長強勁，FY24Q3後半季度訂單量實現yoy兩位數增長，平臺商家數持續同比雙位數增長；88VIP會員雙十一突破3200萬，高購買力用戶佔比顯著提升。
CMR收入921億元，yoy持平
，佣金收入同比略微下降是由於淘寶GMV增加，且CMR中佣金收入跟退貨率有高度相關性。目前，淘寶商戶佣金持續提升，天貓商戶佣金本季度保持不變，我們認爲隨着GMV向淘寶商戶的混合轉移或使貨幣化率有提高空間。
China:
FY24Q3 GMV growth was stable; potential Taobao monetization improvement:
•Financials: revenue in the quarter arrived at RMB129.07bn (up 2% yoy), while adjusted EBITDA came to RMB55.9bn (up 1% yoy). The main reason was a steady yoy growth trend in online GMV; although average order value declined, transaction buyers and order volumes grew strongly.
•Operations: order volumes spiked to double-digit yoy growth and platform merchant numbers escalated double-digit yoy in the latter half of the quarter. The number of 88VIP members climbed past 32m during the Double-11 shopping festival in November, while big spenders swelled in proportion.
•CMR: customer management revenue amounted to RMB92.1bn, flat yoy, as commission revenue dipped yoy despite higher Taobao GMV; this was likely due to the close correlation between commission revenue and goods return rates. Looking ahead, in view of the rising trend in Taobao merchant commissions and the flat trend in Tmall merchant commissions, we reckon monetization rates could improve with a shift in GMV mix toward Taobao merchants.
雲業務：收入結構優化初顯成效。FY24Q3收入280.66億元，yoy+3%，高於一致預期9%.，經調整EBITDA達236億美元，yoy+86%高於一致預期75%。
源於此前阿里雲優化收入結構，通過減少利潤率低的項目式合約，以及加強公有云產品及服務收入，改善了收入質量、推動盈利。
Cloud:
revenue mix restructure starting to show results: revenue from the cloud business came to RMB28.07bn in FY24Q3 (up 3% yoy), 9% better than consensus. Adjusted EBITDA was at USD23.6bn (up 86% yoy), 75% higher than consensus. Alibaba Cloud had tweaked the revenue mix by reducing low-margin project contracts in favor of business from public cloud products and services, which raised revenue quality and profitability.
國際商業：AE Choice帶動訂單總量。FY24Q3收入285.16億元，yoy+44%，訂單yoy+24%，經調整EBITA虧損31億元。
經調整EBITA虧損來源於，AIDC對AE Choice的投資和Trendyol加碼中東,部分被所有主流平臺貨幣化率提升抵消。總體收入增加得益於，1）AE Choice帶動AliExpress實現60%以上訂單yoy增長，24年1月，AE Choice訂單量佔比爲AliExpress的50%，訂單高速提升源於加強的物流時效與用戶體驗。2）Trendyol訂單持續保持雙位數增長，保持土耳其電商行業龍頭地位。3）Lazada單均虧損yoy持續縮窄，源於變現率提升和物流成本下降。
International:
AliExpress Choice (aka AE Choice) lifted total order volume: FY24Q3 revenue in the business arrived at RMB28.52bn (up 44% yoy) as orders expanded 24% yoy. The division had an adjusted EBITA loss of RMB3.1bn, dragged by AIDC’s investment into AE Choice and Trendyol’s heavy weightage in the Middle East, while partially offset by rising monetization rates across all mainstream platforms. We look at the factors behind the revenue increase:
•AE Choice, a curated segment of AliExpress, spurred AliExpress order growth to over 60%, while it accounted for 50% of AliExpress order volumes in January 2024. The rapid rise in orders was driven by enhanced logistics timeliness and user experience.
•Trendyol orders maintained a double-digit growth rate in FYQ3 and secured its helm positioning in Turkey’s ecommerce industry.
•Lazada average order loss narrowed in the quarter on higher liquidity and lower logistics costs.
其他業務：菜鳥EBITDA扭虧爲盈，本地生活虧損持續收窄。
菜鳥集團收入284.76億元，yoy+24%，高於一致預期10.5%。EBITDA爲9.61億元，去年同期爲虧損1200萬元。本地生活，收入151.60億元，yoy+13%，主要系餓了麼、高德大幅增產，集團總訂單yoy+20%以上，虧損持續縮窄。
Other businesses:
Cainiao’s EBITDA loss flipped to profit; losses at local services continued to narrow:
•Cainiao generated revenue of RMB28.48bn, up 24% yoy and 10.5% higher than consensus. EBITDA came to RMB961m, vs a RMB12m loss a year ago.
•Local services revenue came to RMB15.16bn, up 13% yoy, mainly on substantial production increases at Ele.me and AutoNavi. Total order growth at 20% yoy helped narrow the losses.
股份回購上調：
截止2027年3月底，股份回購計劃增加250億美元。未來三個財年仍有353億美元股份回購額度。23年自然年，股份回購計劃使流通股淨減少3.3%。
Ali raises planned quota by USD25bn for share buybacks through March 2027E
Under the company’s share repurchase plan, it increased the buyback quota by USD25bn through end-March 2027E, which leaves USD35.3bn available for share repurchases for the next three fiscal years. Its share buybacks in CY23 net reduced shares outstanding by 3.3%.
