思考者和不思考者的阶层分化，来自这一个选择。

原文： Writes and Write-Nots ^[1]

作者：paul graham

翻译：@howie.serious

I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.

我通常不愿意预测技术问题，但我对这个预测相当有信心：几十年后，有写作能力的人，不会很多。

One of the strangest things you learn if you're a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they're worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren't; writers know how many people need help writing.

如果你成为一个写作者，你会发现的离奇现象之一就是有多少人有写作困难。就像医生会发现有多少人在焦虑他们长了一颗痣；擅长设置电脑的人会发现有多少人不会设置电脑；写作者会发现有多少人在写作上需要帮助。

The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it's fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.

如此多人有写作困难的原因，是 写作在本质上是困难的 。要写得好，你必须清晰思考，而 清晰思考在本质上是困难的 。

And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.

然而，写作渗透在诸多工作岗位中， 工作越受人尊重 ，对写作的需求就越大。

These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they're not even halfway decent at writing.

两种强大的对立力量—— 无法逃避的写作需求和无法降低的写作困难 ——造成了巨大的压力。这就是为什么杰出教授会铤而走险选择抄袭。这些案例中，最让我震惊的是“抄袭金额”之微小。 他们偷窃的东西通常是最平庸的套话 ——哪怕是半桶水的写作者都能毫不费力写出来的东西。也就是说，这些教授在写作上连半桶水都不到。

Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn't buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.

直到不久前，世界上还不存在能轻易释放这种写作压力的“泄压阀”。你可以 花钱找写作枪手 ，像肯尼迪那样，或者直接 抄袭 ，像马丁·路德·金那样，但如果你没法买也不敢偷，你就得 亲自写 。结果就是，几乎所有被期望写作的人，不得不学习如何写作。

Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.

现在不必了。AI已经炸开了旧世界， 几乎所有的写作压力都被释放了 。你可以让 AI 替你写作，不论是在学校还是在工作中。

The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can't write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can't write, there will just be good writers and people who can't write.

结果就是，这个世界将会分裂为 写作者和不写作者两个阶层 ^[2] 。世界上仍然会有一些人拥有写作能力。 有些人类就是喜欢写作本身 。但是，优秀写作者和完全不会写作的人之间的 中间地带将会消失 ：不再会有好的写作者，一般写作者和不会写作的人，只会有好的写作者，和不会写作的人。

Is that so bad? Isn't it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren't many blacksmiths left, and it doesn't seem to be a problem.

这有什么问题吗？技术进步使某些技能过时，这些技能消失不是正常现象吗？现代社会没剩下几个铁匠了，但这并不是个问题啊。

Yes, it's bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there's a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can't make this point better than Leslie Lamport did:

错，这是个问题。原因在于我前面提到的： 写作就是思考本身 。事实上，有一种思考只能通过写作完成。对此， 莱斯利·兰帕特 ^[3] 的表述无比精准：

If you're thinking without writing, you only think you're thinking.