中文导读
英国智库国际战略研究所（IISS）在其年度报告中说，中国正在挑战美国及其盟友的军事霸主地位。中国的歼-20战斗机意味着美国将失去对隐形战斗机的垄断；中国的霹雳-15“超远程”空空导弹系统将装备电子扫描雷达——只有少数其他国家拥有这种技术。中国武器方面的新进展和防务技术进步使中国从“追赶”西方的角色变为全球防务创新者。
China will soon deploy aircraft and missiles that rival the West's best.
THERE is no question which country gets the starring role in “The Military Balance”, the latest annual review of the world’s armed forces by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think-tank. Amid renewed jostling between the world’s great powers, it is the pace of military modernisation in China that stands out.
China’s president, Xi Jinping, wants to be able to challenge America’s military might in the western Pacific. He is making big progress. China’s once bloated armed forces are becoming leaner and a lot more capable. They are also benefiting from a defence budget that is growing at a steady 6-7% a year, in line with GDP. The IISS declares that China has become an innovator in military technology and is “not merely ‘catching up’ with the West”.
For some of the most advanced science, Mr Xi is tapping the private sector. Non-state firms are helping the armed forces to develop quantum technologies that will boost their ability to make use of artificial intelligence and big data, as well as to develop unhackable communications networks. A potential advantage that China has over the West is that its tech firms have little choice about working on military projects. The Pentagon has to woo sceptical Silicon Valley companies. Firms in China do what the government tells them to do.
Such exotic technologies will take time to be deployed on the battlefield. But China’s focus on them may cause the West’s already eroding military edge to disappear entirely. “The Military Balance” offers a striking example of the progress China has made: in two years’ time, if not before, America is likely to lose its monopoly of radar-beating stealth combat aircraft with the introduction into service of China’s Chengdu J-20. This has a much longer range than America’s new F-35 fighter and will be a serious threat to American warships in the Pacific.
At least as worrying for American commanders in the region is the dramatic upgrading of China’s inventory of air-to-air missiles (AAMs). The short-range PL-10, which was introduced in 2015, is regarded by military analysts as comparable in performance to Western equivalents, such as the Sidewinder II. This year, the PL-15, a radar-guided “beyond visual range” missile (BVRAAM), should enter service. Carried by a J-20, the PL-15 can destroy an aircraft 50km away that is trying to evade it. “The Military Balance” believes that a version of the missile is in the works that will have a cruise speed of Mach 3. It is similar in design to the European Meteor, the best BVRAAM in the West’s inventory, which is only just entering service.
