自4月2日美国宣布对中国钢铁、铝等产品加征25%关税，中国随即对美百余项产品征收数价值百亿关税，中美贸易战自打响后不断升温，目前美国对华产品征收关税额已达千亿。世界第一第二大经济体之间的贸易战该何去何从？
中国经济能挺过贸易战吗？
译者：邓小雪 & 高浦铭
校对：曾擎禹
策划：黄倩霞
After a good run of growth, China’s economy braces for bumps
在高速增长之后，中国为经济动荡未雨绸缪
A trade war with America and the battle against debt at home cloud the horizon
与美国的贸易战以及如何解决国内债务问题让未来变得扑朔迷离
本文选自
The Economist
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JUST a few years ago Wuhan, a sprawling metropolis in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, exemplified China’s economic woes. Municipal debt had soared. The most senior local official was known as “Mr Dig Up The City”, a reference to his zeal for grandiose construction projects. A movie theme park, intended as a landmark, closed after failing to draw crowds. It would take nearly a decade, it was estimated, to sell all of Wuhan’s vacant homes.
仅仅在几年之前，位于长江中部的大都市武汉成为中国经济下行的缩影。地方债务飙升，武汉市委书记被称为
“
满城挖先生
”（武汉市委书记阮成发——
译注），由此可见其对于基建的狂热。原本将成为地标建筑的武汉万达电影乐园也因游客量不足而关门。据估计，武汉住宅库存的去化周期长达
10
年。
These days, the city of 11m stands as a monument to China’s resilience. Its economy has accelerated even as the government has controlled debt more strictly. Five subway lines were opened or extended in the past two years alone; they are jammed in rush hour. Investment is pouring into semiconductor production, biotech research and internet-security companies. The
glut
of unsold homes is almost cleared.
如今，这座将近
1100
万人口的城市充分体现了中国式的适应力。即便是在政府严控债务的前提下，武汉经济仍在加速增长。过去两年间，有
5
条地铁线路开始运营或进行延伸，如今到了高峰时段已经人满为患。大量投资进入半导体行业、生物技术研究和网络安全公司。住宅库存量已经几乎见底。
glut
/ɡlʌt/ N-COUNT If there is a glut of something, there is so much of it that it cannot all be sold or used. 供应过剩
China’s economy, like Wuhan’s, is in much better shape than it was in late 2015. Then, the country was reeling from a stockmarket crash, suffering from capital outflows and accumulating debt at an alarming rate. But figures reported on April 17th showed growth of 6.8% in the first three months of 2018 compared with the same period a year ago. In nominal terms growth was above 10%. China’s total debt-to-GDP ratio has stabilised, a sign that the risk of financial crisis has faded.
就像武汉一样，中国目前的经济情况比
2015
年底的时候大有好转。当时，股市暴跌，资本外流，债务水平已经接近警报线。
4
月
17
日公布的数据显示，中国经济
2018
年第一季度增长率同比增长
6.8%
。名义增长率则达到
10%
。中国债务占
GDP
比率也保持稳定，这表明金融风险已经化解。
The improvement in China’s fortunes can be traced to three factors. First, the government has started to tackle several ingrained problems. After a long period of overproduction of steel and coal, a campaign to close unused capacity restrained output and pushed up prices. To reduce the property overhang, local governments bought millions of unsold homes from developers and gave them to poorer citizens.
中国经济好转的原因有三。首先，政府已经开始着手解决几个根深蒂固的问题。在钢铁和煤炭通过关停工厂和涨价的方式去产能去库存。为了解决住房过剩问题，地方政府从开发商手中收购大量积压的住宅转变为公租房提供给低收入人群。
Financial regulators have taken aim at banks’ murky off-balance-sheet loans, and at heavily indebted borrowers such as property developers. Wang Tao of UBS, a Swiss bank, notes that these efforts have given investors more confidence. Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong have risen in value by a third over the past two years. The government has also helped arrange behind-the-scenes rescues of troubled firms. One was in Wuhan. The big local steel company, bleeding cash, merged with its much stronger
counterpart
in Shanghai in 2016. The combined entity is profitable.
金融监管机构则出手解决银行的不良表外贷款和开发商过高负债问题。瑞银集团的王涛（音译）表示，这些政策给了投资者更大的信心。港股中国指数估值在过去的两年里增长了三分之一。另外，政府也在幕后帮忙解决企业的问题。其中，武汉一家当地的钢铁公司（武汉钢铁集团）在
2016
年通过与上海宝钢集团兼并重组后扭亏为盈。
counterpart
/ˈkaʊntəˌpɑːt/ N-COUNT Someone's or something's counterpart is another person or thing that has a similar function or position in a different place. 对应的人或物
A second factor is that China’s economy is maturing. Growth is bound to slow as China gets richer, but structural changes are also making growth more stable. Thanks in part to a falling working-age population, which peaked in 2011, incomes are growing faster than the overall economy. This, in turn, is rebalancing the economy. Excessive reliance on investment is giving way to consumption. And heavy industry is yielding to services, which now account for more than half of GDP, up from a third two decades ago.
中国经济的日益成熟，也是原因之一。中国的经济总量越大，经济增速必定放缓，但是结构性改革会使得经济增长趋于稳定。中国适龄的工作人口数自
2011
年达到顶峰后，近年来一直处于下降趋势，这也一定程度上导致了国内工资增速比总体经济增速要快，从而再次平衡了国内经济。中国现在将目光放在刺激消费上，不再过度依赖于投资产业，并且正在完成重工业向服务业的转型。现在服务业的产值占国民生产总值一半以上，在二十年前，这一比例只有三分之一。
At the same time, China is reaping returns on some big investments of the past decade, such as high-speed rail in densely populated areas. Qin Zunwen, a government economist in Wuhan, says that although local debt shot up, it was almost all tied to infrastructure—half a dozen subway lines, bridges spanning the Yangtze River, elevated expressways—that is now being used. “Yes, it’s much more than we had in the past,” he says. “Has it exceeded our needs? No.”
中国在过去的十年内，开展了一些大型投资项目，例如在人口密集的地区兴建高铁，如今这些投资开始获得回报。任职于武汉市政府的经济学家秦尊文（音译）认为，虽然武汉市政府近年来债台高筑，但是这些债务都是产生于已经投入使用的基础设施，比如：六条新建地铁线路，数座横跨长江的大桥和及新修的城市高架。秦尊文表示
“
的确，相比过往，我们负了更多债务。但这并没有超过我们的实际需求。
”
The final factor has been luck. Robust growth in America and Europe has given Chinese firms a lift. After falling in 2016, exports have rebounded. The rise in global commodity prices has filtered into stronger industrial revenues in China, boosting miners and metal producers. That has helped them service their debts. And it has made the task of deleveraging for the wider economy less daunting. Outflows of hot money have been curbed by tighter capital controls. China has also benefited from a weak dollar since the start of 2017, which has increased the yuan’s appeal.
“
运气好
”
是最后一个原因。美国和欧洲的强劲经济增长助力中国企业，这使得中国出口在
2016
年放缓之后，现今迎来反弹。全球大宗商品价格上涨惠及中国工业，带来更多收入的同时，也给矿产与金属产业注入新的劳动力。这同时减少了政府的负债率，在其他经济领域，
“
去杠杆
”
这一任务不再令地方政府望而却步。更紧缩的财政管控限制了短期资金外流。另外，从
17
年年初至今，美元处于一直疲软状态，这也让人民币在国际上更具吸引力。
The coming few quarters are likely to be bumpier, however. The biggest immediate worry is President Donald Trump. The American administration has announced tariffs on about $50bn of Chinese exports and may soon triple that. Exports to America are only a fraction of Chinese GDP, but a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies could wreak havoc on sentiment and supply chains.
然而，中国在接下来的几个季度有可能会陷入更动荡的处境。当下，最亟需应对的挑战来自于美国总统特朗普。美国政府宣布了对价值
500
亿美元的中国出口产品征收关税，并威胁将税率提高为现在的三倍。虽然，对美出口只占中国国民生产总值的一小部分，但是世界最大两个经济体间的贸易战可能加剧双方不满情绪，破坏供应链。
The downsides of the campaign to control debt might also become more apparent. Last year regulators focused on the financial system, clamping down, for instance, on borrowing to buy bonds. This year their focus has shifted to government funding. That will have a more direct impact on the economy. China has tried before to rein in profligate local officials, but they have found ways around the rules. A popular recent trick has been to disguise debt in public-private partnerships. Policy this time seems stricter. Subway construction has been halted in cities whose finances were too weak. Tighter liquidity could also weigh on investment. Credit growth is the weakest since 2015.
