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夢百合: 產能全球化、品牌國際化初見成效

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-05-13 20:54

正文

Healthcare

(603313 CH)


產能全球化、品牌國際化初見成效


u/g to BUY: Global production capacity buildout and brand internationalization efforts have begun to bear fruit

BUY (from ACCUMULATE)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

公司發佈年報及一季報

24Q1收入18億,同增7%,歸母淨利0.2億,同增18%,扣非歸母淨利0.19億,同增263%;23A收入80億,同減0.5%,歸母淨利1.1億,同增158%;其中23Q4收入同增16%,歸母淨利同增89%。


Results: 2023 net profit rose 158% yoy; while 24Q1E net profit lifted 18% yoy

Healthcare Co released final 2023 results as well as 24Q1E numbers recently:

2023: the company generated RMB8bn revenue last year (down 0.5%) but net profit rose 158% to RMB110m; with 23Q4 revenue up 16% yoy and net profit up 89% yoy.

24Q1E: revenue arrived at RMB1.8bn (up 7% yoy); with net profit at RMB20m (up 18% yoy) and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB19m (up 263% yoy). We peruse segmental perspectives below:


分產品看, 牀墊收入40億(佔約50%),同增4%,毛利率36%,同增9pct;枕頭6億,同增15%,毛利率35%,同增10pct;沙發11億,同減9%,毛利率40%,同增5pct;電動牀6億,同增4%,毛利率37%,同增6pct。


Products

•Mattresses contributed RMB4bn revenue in 2023 (about 50% of the total), an increase of 4%, with gross margin widened 9ppt to 36%.

•Pillows: RMB600m, up 15%, with gross margin at 35%, up 10ppt.

•Sofas: RMB1.1bn, down 9%, with gross margin at 40%, up a 5ppt.

•Electric beds: RMB600m, up 4%, with gross margin at 37%, up 6ppt.


分渠道看, 門店收入26億(佔約33%),同減8%,毛利率48%,同增4pct;其中境外直營店21億,同減15%,毛利率49%,同增4pct;境內經銷店3.9億,同增28%,毛利率36%,同增4pct。


大宗收入38億,同減11%,毛利率29%,同增9pct;線上收入13億,同增98%,毛利率46%,同減1pct,其中海外9.7億,同增116%,毛利率40%,同減1pct。


Channels

•Physical stores generated revenue of RMB2.6bn in 2023 (about 33% of the total), down 8%, although gross margin widened 4ppt to 48%; a breakdown shows:

-Directly-run stores in foreign markets contributed RMB2.1bn, down 15%, where gross margin expanded 4ppt to 49%;

-Dealerships in the Chinese market contributed RMB390m, up 28%, with gross margin also widening 4ppt to 36%.

•Bulk business, which had the largest revenue share, brought in RMB3.8bn, down 11%, but gross margin widened 9ppt to 29%.

•Online sales brought in RMB1.3bn, registering a revenue growth spike of 98%, with gross margin flattish on a 1ppt dip to 46%; where the foreign market segment contributed RMB970m, up 116%, with gross margin down 1ppt to 40%.


分品牌看, 自有品牌收入19億,同增40%,毛利率42%,同增4pct;其他品牌59億,同減9%,毛利率37%,同增7pct。


截至23年底,夢百合門店1095家,其中經銷928家;MOR38家,西班牙MATRESSES98家,上海里境45家。


Brands

•Proprietary brands: revenue from the company's brands amounted to RMB1.9bn last year, up 40%, with gross margin of 42%, up 4ppt.

•Other brands contributed RMB5.9bn, down 9%, with gross margin at 37%, up 7ppt.

•Store network: 1,095 Mlily stores, including 928 dealerships; 38 MOR furniture stores; 98 Spanish Mattress stores; and 45 Shanghai Nisco stores (as of end-2023).



堅持穩中求進發展基調,持續開拓海外市場

2024年國外市場將堅持 ODM、自主品牌、海外零售三線並行發展,完善渠道、品牌深度佈局。渠道方面,推動海外ODM拓展,增加供應品類,擴大供應占比,保持存量大客戶基礎份額穩定;加大自有渠道和渠道商的拓展投入,加強自身DTC能力建設,開發更多更優客羣,持續鞏固歐美業務復甦態勢。發揮海外零售渠道對自主品牌推廣、產品供應和生產基地聯動等方面的戰略協同作用,擴大自主品牌影響力。加快發展跨境電商,以第三方平臺爲主渠道,同時培育獨立站,聚焦北美市場並逐步拓展其他市場。品牌方面,深入洞察全球營銷新趨勢,發揚中國品牌的獨特優勢,樹立標誌鮮明的品牌形象。


Foreign market outlook: stable ramp-up and building out into new markets

Healthcare Co plans to prioritize the parallel development of the ODM business alongside its proprietary brands in 2024, as it builds out foreign markets and grows the foreign retail business by broadening channels and expanding its brand footprint:


Channels:

•ODM: the company wants to expand its foreign ODM business, increase supply categories and expand its supply market share, while maintaining its business share among current major customers.

•DTC: it aims to increase investments to increase its proprietary brand channels and channel partners, strengthen its DTC proprietary brand capabilities, develop better and more customer markets, while stabilizing its recovery trends in the European and US businesses.

•Retail: by leveraging strategic synergies of its foreign retail channels, it aims to promote its proprietary brands, product supplies and production base linkage, so as to raise the profiles of its proprietary brands.

•Ecommerce: It wants to step up the growth pace of its cross-border ecommerce business with third-party platforms as the main channel, while cultivating its own websites, with a focus on the North American market first, then expanding gradually to other markets.


Branding: the company hopes to gain insights into new global marketing trends and leverage unique Chinese characteristics to establish distinctive brands.



多維度挖掘新增長點,助力國內市場穩中求進

產品升級維度,充分發揮牀墊、軟牀、枕頭、沙發、智能牀等多品類協同作用,打造多產品矩陣。推出VALUE榀至定製品牌,將定製產品融入MLILLY夢百合和 NISCO裏境銷售渠道,打造前置流量入口,爲客戶提供一體化、場景化的家居解決方案。


渠道拓展維度,加速開拓線下門店,完善渠道佈局,強化終端渠道建設,實行標杆門店培育計劃。通過優化經銷商與門店結構、豐富門店店態、升級門店形象和氛圍感、持續賦能經銷商、


着力開拓線上電商平臺,保持天貓、京東等傳統電商平臺穩定運營的同時,佈局抖音、小紅書等新興電商平臺。持續拓展酒店渠道,進一步強化用戶體驗,建立體驗、推廣與銷售一體化的立體渠道。


品牌建設維度,基於0壓的品牌核心,強化“改變中國人睡硬牀的習慣”觀念的傳播,圍繞品牌推廣、品牌形象、IP合作、廣告投放等方面,持續擴大品牌影響力、提升市場佔有率。


Domestic market outlook: tapping diversity adds growth drivers and stability

Product mix: Healthcare aims for more diverse product categories, including mattresses, padded bed frames, pillows, sofas and smart beds, to boost its product matrix. It launched Value, a brand for customizable products, to enrich its Mlily and Nisco sales channels. The added diversity would attract entrance footfall and provide customers with multiple scenarios and integrated home solutions.


Channels

•Offline: Healthcare aims to build up physical store business by building out the network, strengthening end-market channels and implementing a benchmark store system. It hopes to optimize the dealer store structure by enhancing store models, boosting the stores' image and atmosphere, while empowering dealers.

•Online: investing into traditional ecommerce platforms such as Tmall and JD.com, while building out emerging platforms like Douyin (TikTok) and Xiaohongshu would help stabilize operations.

•Hotels: hotel beds and furniture offer a full-fledged user experience, which integrated with sales and promotions, provide a multifunctional channel.


Brands: with its zero-pressure mattresses at the core of its branding, Healthcare hopes to overturn Chinese consumer preference for hard bed frames. It aims to expand brand mindshare as well as market share through promotions, and boosting its brand image through IP collabs, advertising and other ways.



全球化產能佈局,提升扛風險能力

產能全球化方面,公司近年來通過自建和併購等方式,目前已擁有包括位於境內、塞爾維亞、美國、泰國及西班牙的多個生產基地,公司全球化的產能佈局已初步成型。未來公司將進一步完善產能的全球化佈局,形成可以向全球各個市場快速供貨的生產基地網絡。


通過全球佈局,公司一方面可以更好地服務現有客戶,降低運輸成本,縮短供貨週期,增加供給彈性,提高客戶滿意度,同時拓展新的海外客戶,尋求新的利潤增長點;另一方面,全球化的產能佈局能夠一定程度上避免由於貿易摩擦帶來的業績不穩定的風險,使得公司在未來的市場競爭中具備了可以快速調整自身產能安排的先佔優勢,提高公司的抗風險能力。


Global production capacities: network expansion helps improve risk spread

Speed to foreign markets: Healthcare has expanded its production network endogenously as well as through M&As in recent years. Its global production capacity map is taking shape with facilities spread across China, Serbia, the US, Thailand and Spain. The company aims to keep building out its capacity network to facilitate supply speed to various markets around the world. The benefits are two-fold:

•Better services and lower costs: it would be able to provide better services to customers, reduce transportation costs, shorten delivery cycles, increase supply flexibility and enhance customer satisfaction.

•New potentials: a global production network also helps expand the customer pool with foreign customers and add new profit growth drivers.


Better risk management: having global production capacities mitigates risks to a degree, such as performance instability due to trade frictions. The company also gets a first-mover advantage by having optimized production capacity arrangements in advance of future market competition, thereby improving its ability to withstand risks.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


上調盈利預測,調整爲“買入”評級

公司海外工廠產能陸續釋放,有望規避反傾銷影響;國內渠道擴展及跨境電商增長穩健,我們調整盈利預測,預計24-26年歸母淨利潤分別爲3.7/5.5/7.5億(24-25年前值分別爲2.1/3.3億),PE分別爲14/9/7X,上調爲“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

As Healthcare rolls out foreign production capacities gradually, we believe this would help the company avoid anti-dumping duties. Meanwhile, its Chinese channel is expanding and cross-border ecommerce business is growing steadily. Hence, we raise our forecast and currently expect net profit will arrive at RMB370m/550m/750m in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB210m/330m in 2024/25E). implying 14x/9x/7x PE. We upgrade the stock to BUY (from ACCUMULATE).


風險提示: 牀墊反傾銷風險,國內品牌費用投放加大,行業競爭加劇,核心客戶流失風險等


Risks include: anti-dumping risks in the mattress business; Chinese brands requiring heavier investment expenses; intensifying competition; and loss of key customers.



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