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思考樂教育: 重拾成長節奏

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-09-03 18:00

正文

Scholar Education Group

(1769 HK)


重拾成長節奏


24H1E results: growth momentum uptick


BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

公司發佈2024年中期業績公告

24H1公司收入3.99億元人民幣,同增58.8%;歸母淨利0.83億元,同增92.5%,其中包含共計1089萬元購股權福利開支(23H1爲357.3萬元),剔除後歸母淨利0.94億元,同增101.1%;合約負債2.49億元,同增93%;毛利率44.4%,同增3.0pct;調後歸母淨利率23.4%,同增4.9pct。


歸母淨利增加主要系①輔導課時總數增加;②公司努力改善經營效率。


分業務看,24H1非學業素質課程及其他業務收入3.67億元,同增57.8%;輔導課程業務收入0.33億元,同增70.6%。


24H1E revenue up 59% and net profit up 93%; higher tutoring hours and efficiency

Key metrics: Scholar Education released unaudited 24H1E financial results recently:

•Revenue arrived at RMB399m, up 58.8% yoy;

•Net profit rose 92.5% yoy to RMB83m (including RMB10.89m share option benefit expenses (vs RMB3.57m in 23H1); excluding these expenses, net profit would have been RMB94m, up 101.1% yoy.

•Contract liabilities amounted to RMB249m, up 93% yoy;

•Gross margin was 44.4%, up 3.0ppt yoy; and adjusted net margin was 23.4%, up 4.9ppt yoy.


Profit drivers: the company attributes net profit growth to:

•Higher tuition hours overall;

•Better operational efficiency.


Revenue streams:

•Nonacademic and other such courses generated RMB367m, up 57.8% yoy;

•Tuition classes generated RMB33m, up 70.6% yoy.


經營效率改善,銷售成本及各項費用增幅低於收益增幅

公司24H1銷售成本2.22億元,同增50.7%,系教師薪酬上漲及學習中心擴張導致的使用權資產攤銷增加。


費用方面,24H1銷售費用0.07億元,同增26.6%;行政費用0.56億元,同增11.5%;研發費用0.11億元,同增21.3%;各項費用增幅均低於收益增幅。


Operations: better efficiencies, higher cost of sales and manageable expenses

Cost of sales came to RMB222m in 24H1E, up 50.7% yoy, as amortization of right-of-use assets increased in relation to higher teacher salaries and expansion of Scholar’s learning center network.


Expenses mounted in the first half of 2024E but the increase was smaller than the revenue increase. We look at the breakdown:

•Sales expenses came to RMB7m, up 26.6% yoy;

•Administrative expenses came to RMB56m, up 11.5% yoy;

•R&D expenses were RMB11m, up 21.3% yoy.


業務轉型持續推進,素養課程廣受認可

公司積極推行業務轉型,自2021年秋公司推出多種非學科的素養課程,取得了學生及家長的高度認可,24H1營收成績喜人。


24H1公司非學科素養課程入讀學生人次達16.97萬人次,同增57.3%;相關課時數達420.29萬課時,同增57.1%。


Business pivot shown to be viable; nonacademic businesses gain market traction

Nonacademic courses: Scholar rolled out a series of personal development courses from fall 2021 in response to policy directives. Embraced by both students and parents, the shift in the curriculum mix led to robust revenue in 24H1E:

•Enrollments: 169,700 students enrolled in personal development courses in 24H1E, 57.3% more yoy;

•Tuition hours: the courses clocked 4.2m hours of tuition time, up 57.1% yoy.


多舉措助力國際化培養,妙維國際素養課程成效顯著

公司自2023年7月推出教育旅遊業務及國際課程,這些舉措已經並且將持續拓寬公司收益基礎,爲長遠發展做出貢獻。


24H1思考樂妙維國際積極採取各項舉措:成立妙維國際綠景NEO校區,致力於培養具有國際視野、創新精神和實踐能力的優秀人才;與新西蘭長灣中學簽署了戰略合作協議,共同搭建相互學習平臺;積極開展海外研學活動,目的地涵蓋美國、英國、加拿大、新加坡、日本、新西蘭等多個國家。


Miaowei International: Scholar entered new business markets in educational tourism and international studies in July 2023, which broadened its revenue markets and the company expects they will contribute to long-term growth. Miaowei, its international brand, made headway with several initiatives in 24H1, including:

•New campus: the company established Miaowei International Campus at Greenview NEO Building to nurture globally fluent talents who have vision, an innovative spirit and practicable drive.

•NZ tie-up: a strategic cooperation agreement with Long Bay College in New Zealand to jointly build a mutual learning platform;

•Global research initiatives: these cover the US, UK, Canada, Singapore, Japan, New Zealand and other countries.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


上調盈利預測,維持買入評級

由於公司24H1淨利率表現較好,我們適當上調盈利預測;我們預計2024-26年全年收入分別爲9.8億人民幣、15.6億人民幣、22.0億人民幣;調後淨利分別爲2.1億人民幣、2.8億人民幣、3.4億人民幣(原值分別爲2.0億人民幣、2.7億人民幣、3.3億人民幣);EPS分別爲0.38元人民幣/股、0.51元人民幣/股、0.61元人民幣/股(原值分別爲0.36元人民幣/股、0.49元人民幣/股、0.60元人民幣/股);對應PE分別爲14、10、9x。


Valuation and risks

We raise our forecast in light of Scholar’s healthy net margin in 24H1E. We now project revenue will arrive at RMB980m/1.56bn/2.20bn in 2024/25/26E, with adjusted net profit at RMB210m/280m/340m (previously RMB200m/270m/330m). EPS moves to RMB0.38/ 0.51/0.61 (previously RMB0.36/0.49/0.60) and PE to 14x/10x/9x. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.


風險提示: 政策風險;管理風險;運營成本上升風險;行業競爭風險加劇;外匯風險等。


Risks include: policy effects; management risks; rising operating costs; intensifying competition; and FX risks.



Email: [email protected]

TFI research report website:

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