世界第三大汽车制造商诞生:危险和机会并存 | 双语阅读

By Jack Ewing, Neal E. Boudette and Ben Dooley

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is playing up its proposed merger with Renault, unveiledon Monday, as a chance to create a European-American carmaker with the financial and industrial brawn to survive a turbulent age.

菲亚特克莱斯勒汽车公司(以下简称“FCA”)正在大力宣传其周一宣布的与雷诺合并的计划，称此次合并所缔造的欧-美汽车制造商拥有强大的财务实力和工业实力的，足以度过全球汽车业的动荡期。

The new company “would have the scale, expertise and resources to navigate the rapidly changing automotive industry,” Fiat said in a statement. That rapid change includes huge shifts to electric and autonomous cars as well as threats to car ownership posed by the likes of Uber and Lyft. Fiat, furthermore,promised to deliver those benefits without closing a single factory.

菲亚特在一份声明中表示，新的公司所拥有的“规模、专业知识和资源，将能应对汽车行业的快速变革”。这些快速变化包括向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的巨大转型，以及uber和Lyft等公司对汽车所有权构成的威胁。此外，菲亚特还承诺会以不关闭任何一家工厂为前提来实现上述收益。

But how realistic is that as sertion? Here is a closer look at some reasons the merger might succeed — and why it might flop.

但这样的声明实现的可能性有多大呢?下面我们来仔细看看有可能导致这次合并成功或失败的因素。

Fiat Chrysler has a strong position in the United States with its Jeep and Ram brands, but has lacked the money to properly market the S.U.V.s and pickups in promising new markets like the Middle East and Africa, says Michelle Krebs, a senior analyst at AutoTrader.

菲亚特克莱斯勒的吉普(Jeep)和道奇公羊(Ram)品牌在美国拥有强大的地位，但一直缺乏资金在中东和非洲这些前景良好的新市场恰当地推广SUV和皮卡，AutoTrader高级分析师米歇尔•克雷布斯说。

Jeep has already demonstrated its potential in Europe since Fiat and Chrysler merged in 2014. Sales of Jeeps in the European Union rose 37 percent last year, to 12,200 vehicles. With help from Renault, Jeep could push into more overseas markets.

自菲亚特和克莱斯勒于2014年合并以来，Jeep已经在欧洲展示了自己的潜力。去年，吉普车在欧盟的销量增长了37%，达到1.22万辆。在雷诺的帮助下，吉普可以进军更多的海外市场。

“Jeep and Ram have great potential globally but they haven’t had the means to do it,” Ms. Krebs said. “There is strong potential if doneright. Jeep is known globally.”

“吉普和公羊在全球具有巨大的潜力，但它们还没有足够的能力去实现，”克雷布斯说。“以吉普在全球的知名度，如果处理得当，它的潜力是巨大的。”

Renault lacks a deep portfolio of S.U.V.s, one of the most profitable, and fastest growing, segments of the industry, which Jeep could provide. Renault is also all but absent from the high end of the market, another profit engine, while Fiat Chrysler has Alfa Romeo and Maserati — though neither brand has excelledlately. Maserati sales fell 20 percent last year, and while Alfa Romeo salesrose about 10 percent to 120,000 cars, that was only a tiny fraction of the market dominated by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi.

SUV是眼下最赚钱、增长最快的细分市场之一。雷诺缺乏丰富的SUV产品线，而这正是Jeep所能够提供的。在利润丰厚的高端市场，雷诺也完全没有存在感，而FCA则手握阿尔法•罗密欧和玛莎拉蒂——尽管这两个品牌最近都表现一般。玛莎拉蒂去年销量下降20%，而阿尔法罗密欧销量虽增长约10%至12万辆，也仅占由宝马、奔驰和奥迪主导的市场的一小部分。

Fiat Chrysler, the fourth-largest carmaker,offers Renault an American beachhead. Renault’s stylish small cars would be a tough sell in the United States, where drivers are hungry for S.U.V.s. But there might be a niche for electric models like the Renault ZOE subcompact. In addition, a merger with Fiat Chrysler would allow Renault share holders to profit from the region, even if no Renault brand cars were exported to America.

FCA作为第四大汽车制造商也为雷诺在美国抢占滩头提供了机会。由于美国消费者热衷于SUV，雷诺的时尚小型车也许会很难销售，但雷诺佐伊(ZOE)超小型汽车等电动车型可能会在此有一席之地。此外，与FCA的合并让雷诺的股东能够从该地区获利，即使雷诺品牌的汽车没有出口到美国。

In return the French can supply electric cars that Fiat needs to meet quotas in the European Union and avoid regulatory fines. Fiat also desperately needs new models of all kinds in Europe, where it is heavily dependent on the aging Fiat 500.

作为回报，雷诺可以为FCA提供满足欧盟配额和避免监管罚款所需的电动汽车。FCA还迫切需要在欧洲推出各种新车型，目前它仍严重依赖于老旧的菲亚特500。

Renault’s lineup is getting on in years, too. The two companies could share the cost of designing new models, which can easily cost billions of euros.

雷诺的车型阵容近年来逐年壮大。两家公司可以分担数十亿欧元设计新车型的成本。

Renault and Nissan, partners for two decades who added Mitsubishi in 2016, are already in the same league as Volkswagen and Toyota in global car sales. If Jean-Dominique Senard, the chairman of Renault, can hold together the alliance while also merging with Fiat Chrysler, the combined entity would dominate the planet. The carmakers could dictate terms to suppliers, carpet the globe with dealerships, and outspend everyone else on new technologies.

雷诺和二十年的合作伙伴日产在全球汽车销量上已经与大众和丰田处于同一水平。如果雷诺董事长让•多米尼克•塞纳德在与FCA合并的同时还能维系与日产的联盟，合并后的公司将主宰全球汽车业。这几家汽车制造商可以向供应商发号施令，他们的经销商能够遍布全球，其在新技术上的投入也会超过其他所有公司。

But there is also a less rosy scenario. Which brings us to why the merger might be a bad idea.

但这样美好的前景只是一种可能性，其他的可能性就没有这么美好。现在我们就来谈谈为什么合并也可能是个坏主意。

Renault’s relations with Nissan have been prickly, to say the least, since November after the Japanese authorities arrested Carlos Ghosn, the longtime chairman of the alliance, on suspicion of financial wrongdoing. He has denied all charges.

去年11月，日本当局以涉嫌财务违规为由逮捕了长期担任联盟主席的卡洛斯•戈恩，他却否认了所有指控。雷诺与日产的关系至少从那时开始就已经很紧张了。

Since then Hiroto Saikawa, Nissan’s chief executive, has agitated for more autonomy from Renault. He reacted warily to the proposed merger with Fiat Chrysler, which he learned about only days before it was announced.

自此，日产首席执行官西川广人一直鼓动雷诺给予日产更多自治权。而就在几天前，他才得知雷诺和FCA合并这一消息，他对此的反应显得十分谨慎。

After a meeting in Yokohama on Wednesday for members of the alliance, the groupissued a brief statement that the carmakers had “an open and transparent discussion” on the merger proposal as well as other matters.

周三，在横滨与联盟成员举行会议后，该集团发表了一份简短声明，称两家汽车制造商就合并提议以及其它事项进行了“公开和透明的讨论”。

Mr.Saikawa said that the merger could ultimately be beneficial, but that he needed“to closely examine it from Nissan’s perspective,” the economic daily Nikkei reported.

据经济日报《日经新闻》报道，西川表示，合并最终可能是有益的，但他需要“从日产的角度仔细研究”。

Mr.Senard gave his perspective on the day’s discussions, saying that Nissan’sexecutives were skeptical at first but eventually their attitude became more positive, he told Nikkei.

塞纳德就当天的讨论向《日经新闻》给出了自己的看法，称日产高管起初持怀疑态度，但最终他们的态度变得更加积极。

Nissanmay be forced to swallow its resentments and cooperate with Fiat Chrysler and Renault. Nissan’s sales and profit are declining and the company is struggling to overhaul its operations in the United States, its largest market.

日产可能会被迫咽下怨气与 FCA 和雷诺合作。毕竟日产的销售和利润都在下滑，该公司正艰难地调整其最大的市场 --- 美国的业务。

The challenges would spiral for Nissan if its partnership with Renault comes undone. Despite the friction, the companies save billions by manufacturing carsin the same factories and using common engines, transmissions and other components. The last thing Nissan needs is to unscramble that relationship while overall auto sales are declining in every major market.

如果与雷诺的合作关系破裂，日产将面临的挑战将不断升级。尽管两家公司之间存在摩擦，但通过在同一家工厂生产汽车、使用共同的发动机、变速箱和其他零配件，他们节省了数十亿美元。而目前所有主要市场的整体汽车销量都在下滑，日产在此时最不应该做的事情就是破坏联盟。

Automotive history is littered with failedalliances. No company knows that better than Chrysler, whose marriage to Daimler from 1998 to 2007 was a legendary failure. General Motors had alliances with Isuzu, Fiat and Daiwoo that amounted to little.

汽车业的历史上不乏失败的联盟，没有哪家公司比克莱斯勒更清楚这一点了。 1998 年至 2007 年，克莱斯勒与戴姆勒 (Daimler) 的联姻是一场传奇般的失败。 相比之下，通用汽车与五十铃汽车、菲亚特和大宇汽车的联盟关系都不足挂齿了。

The Swedish carmaker Saab languished underGeneral Motors’ ownership and eventually went out of business. Ford once owned Volvo and Jaguar and tried to link them with Lincoln in the “Premier Automotive Group.” It flopped.

瑞典汽车制造商萨博在通用汽车的控制下萎靡不振，最终破产。福特曾经试图将沃尔沃和捷豹与林肯捆绑，组成 “ 顶级汽车集团 ” ，也以失败告终。

But one merger has worked pretty well: Fiat Chrysler. In 2018, Fiat  Chrysler’s sales in the United States increased 9 percent, largely because it focused on better-selling sport utility vehicles and trucks.

但FCA的合并却相当成功。2018年，FCA在美国的销量增长了9%，主要是因为它专注于销售更好的SUV和卡车。

Fiat Chrysler said Monday that the merger with Renault would save 5 billion euros, or $5.6 billion, from buying supplies and parts together and sharing the cost of developing new products and technology.

菲亚特克莱斯勒周一表示，通过共同购买供应品和零部件，并分担开发新产品和技术的成本，与雷诺的合并将节省50亿欧元(合56亿美元)的资金。

But Fiat Chrysler also said it would takesix years to achieve those savings. Analysts are skeptical about such “synergies,” especially since Fiat Chrysler said it wouldn’t close any factories. In practice, attempts to cut costs often get bogged down in squabbling about whose engine or transmission is better, or whose employees should bear the pain of job losses.

但菲亚特克莱斯勒也表示，需要6年时间才能实现这些节省。分析师对这种"协同效应"持怀疑态度，特别是在菲亚特克莱斯勒表示不会关闭任何工厂之后。在实践中，削减成本的努力常常陷入争论，争论的焦点是谁的发动机或变速器更好，或者谁的员工应该承担失业的痛苦。

The merger “makes strategic sense and could create a substantial amount of synergies,” analysts at Moody’s said in a noteto clients Tuesday. “However, we also consider significant execution risks ofsuch a large scale transaction.”

穆迪分析师周二在一份致客户的报告中表示，此次合并“具有战略意义，可能产生大量协同效应”。“不过，我们也考虑了在如此大规模交易中重大的执行风险。”

It is an article of faith in the autoindustry that manufacturers need to gird themselves for an uncertain future by becoming big. Only through so-called economies of scale can they hope to survive, goes the argument. One of the most fervent evangelists of this was Sergio Marchionne, the Fiat chief executive who engineered the merger with Chrysler.

汽车制造商需要通过扩张为不确定的未来做好准备，这是汽车行业的信条。他们认为，只有通过所谓的规模经济，他们才有希望生存下去。菲亚特首席执行官塞尔吉奥•马尔基翁内是这一信条最执着的奉行者之一，正是他策划了与克莱斯勒的合并。

The Fiat Chrysler proposal to Renault,which would create the third-largest carmaker after Volkswagen and Toyota, is very much in the spirit of Mr. Marchionne, who died last year.

FCA向雷诺提出的方案，在很大程度上符合马尔基翁内的精神。两家公司合并后将造就大众和丰田之后的世界第三大汽车制造商。

But often the carmakers that make the most money are not the biggest. They make the most appealing products and can charge the most money. The German luxury carmaker BMW earned almost as much as General Motors last year, about $8 billion, even though G.M. sold more than three times as many cars.

但通常而言，赚钱最多的汽车制造商并不是规模最大的。他们生产最具吸引力的产品，同时收取最高昂的费用。德国豪华汽车制造商宝马去年的利润几乎与通用汽车持平，虽然同为80亿美元，但通用汽车的销量是宝马的三倍多。

The arguments in favor of bigness may have less to do with profits than sheer survival.

支持公司越大越好的原因可能与利润关系不大，仅仅只是为了生存下去。