你的钱够花吗？你的共情能力怎么样？与你认识的人相比，你的健康状况如何？了解我们的真实能力，在社交以及许多方面都是很有用的。但是心理学研究表明，我们并不擅长准确评估自己。实际上，我们经常高估自己的能力。David Dunning描述了Dunning-Kruger效应。
演讲题目: Why incompetent people think they re amazing
Are you as good at things as you think you are? How good are you at managing money? What about reading people s emotions? How healthy are you compared to other people you know? Are you better than average at grammar?
你的能力是否与想象中的一样好？你的理财能力有多强？你的解读情感能力有多好？与熟人相比，你有多健康？你的文法高于平均水平吗？
Knowing how competent we are and how are skill stack up against other people s is more than a self-esteem boost. It helps us figure out when we can forge ahead on our own decisions and instincts and when we need, instead, to seek out advice. But psychological research suggests that we re not very good at evaluating ourselves accurately. In fact, we frequently overestimate our own abilities.
了解自己的能力以及对比自己与别人能力不仅仅能够提升自尊。它帮助我们确定何时可以凭着感觉走，何时需要寻求建议。但是心理学研究表明，我们并不善于准确评价自己。事实上，我们经常高估自己的能力。
Researchers have a name for this phenomena, the Dunning-Kruger effect. This effect explains why more than 100 studies have shown that people display illusory superiority. We judge ourselves as better than others to a degree that violates the laws of math. When software engineers at two companies were asked to rate their performance, 32% of the engineers at one company and 42% at the other put themselves in the top 5%. In another study, 88% of American drivers described themselves as having above average driving skills. These aren t isolated findings.
研究人员将这种现象命名，称为邓宁-克鲁格效应。此效应解析了为什么有100多项研究表明人们有虚幻的优越性。我们认为自己比别人好，这在某种程度上甚至违反了数学定律。两个公司的软件工程师被要求进行自我评定，两家公司分别有32%和42%的工程师把自己排在前5%。在另一项研究中，88%的美国司机自认为具有高于平均水平的驾驶技能。这些并不是特例。
On average, people tend to rate themselves better than most in disciplines ranging from health, leadership skills, ethics, and beyond. What s particularly interesting is that those with the least ability are often the most likely to overrate their skills to the greatest extent.
平均来说，人们倾向于认为自己比大多数人更优秀，这表现在健康情况、领导才能 、道德水平和其他领域。特别有趣的在于能力越低的人越容易最大程度地高估自己的技能。
People measurably poor at logical reasoning, grammar, financial knowledge, math, emotional intelligence, running medical lab tests, and chess all tend to rate their expertise almost as favorably as actual experts do. So who s most vulnerable to this delusion? Sadly, all of us because we all have pockets of incompetence we don t recognize.
在逻辑推理、文法、金融知识、数学、情商、做医学实验、国际象棋等方面，分数低的人都倾向于认为自己与真正的专家能力相当。那么，究竟谁最容易受这种错觉的影响呢？可悲的是，答案是所有人，因为我们都有自己意识不到的不擅长领域。
But why? When psychologists Dunning and Kruger first described the effect in 1999, they argued that people lacking knowledge and skill in particular areas suffer a double curse. First, they make mistakes and reach poor decisions.
但为什么呢？1999年心理学家邓宁和克鲁格首次描述了这种效应，他们认为缺乏特定领域知识和技能的人遭受双重困境。第一，他们会犯错误并做出糟糕的决定。
Remark：
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