全文翻译自华盛顿邮报 6月1日文章
原题：
All but two countries are in the Paris climate agreement. The U.S. will be the third.
作者：
Denise Lu and Kim Soffen
译者：冬天毛
冬天毛导读：
其实美国对巴黎协定完全可以阳奉阴违；老爷此举当中，表态撕逼的含义更大一些。
但无论如何，这次美国是丢人丢得有点厉害了。
《华盛顿邮报》（
The Washington Post
）是美国古老、具影响力的报纸。它与《纽约时报》同被认为是美国最有声望的报纸。 《华盛顿邮报》总部位于美国首都华盛顿哥伦比亚特区，《华盛顿邮报》尤其擅长报导美国国内政治动态。
（维基百科）
正文：
President Trump declared that the United States would leave the Paris climate agreement, following months of infighting among Trump’s staff that left the world in suspense. He said he hopes to negotiate a similar deal that is more favorable to the U.S.
在经历数月的团队内部争执，并吊足了全世界的胃口后，特朗普总统宣布，美国将撤出巴黎气候协定。他表示，他希望能够谈判达成与之类似，但对美国更有利的协议。
This move is one of several Obama-era environmental milestones that Trump has dismantled. And all the while, a new study shows global temperatures might be rising faster than expected.
这也是特朗普已经推翻的几座奥巴马时代的环保里程碑之一。与此同时，一项新的研究表明，全球气温的升高可能比预期来得更快。
Leaving the agreement displaces the U.S. from a stance of global leadership and places it alongside just two non-participating countries: Syria, which is in the midst of a civil war, and Nicaragua, who refused to join because the Paris Agreement didn’t go far enough. Even countries such as Liberia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which are among the poorest in the world and were struggling with an Ebola epidemic at the time, have signed on.
通过撤出巴黎协定，美国也放弃了全球领袖的姿态，转而与其他两个非参与国为伍，它们分别是：正在内战当中的叙利亚，以及嫌巴黎协定力度不够而拒绝加入的尼拉加瓜。即便像利比里亚
（
冬天毛注：非洲国家，有别于利比亚
）
和刚果民主共和国这样贫困程度数一数二、且受埃博拉传染病肆虐的国家，也在协议上签了字。
冬天毛译图
The U.S.’s withdrawal is especially striking because developing countries, most of which are in the agreement, have a much harder time cutting emissions.
美国的撤出尤其惹眼，因为绝大多数发展中国家都签署了协议，而这些国家降低排放要比美国困难得多。
That’s because “the richest countries have much of their economy in lower-emitting sectors” — think finance and technology rather than manufacturing — and fewer people are deprived of access to energy, according to Robert Lempert, an environmental policy researcher at RAND Corporation. “The U.S. can grow their economy and improve their quality of life without increasing energy use. But in developing countries, you can’t do that.”
罗伯特·兰普尔特是兰德公司
（
冬天毛注：美国的著名非营利性智库
）
的环境政策研究员，他表示这是因为“最有钱的国家在经济上倚重低排产业”——比如相对于制造业的
金融和科技产业
——所以被限制使用能源的人更少。“美国不用增加能耗就能发展经济，改善生活质量，但发展中国家是做不到这一点的。”
冬天毛译图
But numerous developing countries nonetheless participate because the Paris agreement has such a decentralized structure. Each country sets its own climate goals, and there’s no legal consequence for missing that goal.
但大量的发展中国家还是参与了协议，因为巴黎协定的结构是很分散的：每个国家制定自己的气候改善目标，就算做不到，也不会有法律后果。
That structure also means the U.S. withdrawal likely won’t spell the end of the agreement — countries have little incentive to leave. China and the European Union, among others, have already reaffirmed their commitments in light of Trump’s comments.
这样的结构也意味着美国的撤出基本不可能导致协定作废——其他国家没有撤离的理由。其中，中国和欧盟已经在特朗普表态后再次强调，将履行协定内容。
Rather, withdrawal “is going to damage the U.S. much more than it’s going to damage the Paris agreement itself,” said Nat Keohane, vice president for global climate at the Environmental Defense Fund.
美国环保基金会的全球气候副总管奈特·柯恩表示，撤出协定只会“对美国自身造成比对巴黎协定更大的损害。”
What is that damage? “It provides an opportunity for China to exert itself on the global stage” after the U.S. leaves a “leadership vacuum,” said Ann Carlson, an environmental law professor at UCLA. That’s with regards to the climate — the U.S. will lose its seat at the negotiating table to set global emissions monitoring standards — and also diplomacy. Experts on both sides agree leaving the international consensus on climate change will harm the country’s reputation.
什么样的损害？加州大学洛杉矶分校的环境法律教授安·卡尔森表示，美国的撤出将造成“领袖真空”，“给中国提供全面登上全球舞台的机会”。在环境方面，美国将失去在谈判桌上设立全球排放监控标准的席位，而在外交方面，两党的专家们一致认为，背离全球在气候变化方面的共识将损害美国的声望。
“Pulling out of the Paris agreement would be an unforced error in the sense of undermining our diplomatic efforts going forward,” Keohane said. “For the rest of the world this is a central issue for foreign policy.”
柯恩说：“撤出巴黎协定将有损我们今后的外交工作，是一种送分行为。对其他国家来说，气候变化是外交政策的核心问题。
People who support leaving the agreement, though, don’t see it this way. “There’s so much fluidity in international politics” that the diplomatic hit would be temporary, said Pat Michaels of the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute.
撤离巴黎协定的支持者们却不这样认为。帕特里克·迈克尔斯隶属于卡托研究所，该智库在政治上具有自由意志主义倾向，他认为，“国际政治的变数很大”，这次对外交造成的打击只是暂时的。
That said, experts from both sides agree that staying in the Paris agreement alone isn’t enough to keep the U.S. in a role of global environmental leadership. Even if the U.S. remained in the agreement but ignored it by crafting domestic policies that hurt the environment, it would face the same harms.
话虽如此，两边的专家们也一致认为，仅仅签署巴黎协定，是不足以使美国保持在全球环保运动中的领袖角色的。如果美国不撤出协定，但忽视协定内容，制订损伤环境的国内政策，那么面临的损害也是一样的。
“Every move the Trump administration has made signals loudly and clearly that the U.S. is not going to address greenhouse gas emissions in any meaningful way,” Carlson said. “Putting aside Paris, we’ve already done that.”
卡尔森说：“特朗普政府的每一个举措都是在发出响亮明确的信号：美国不会以任何有意义的方式控制温室气体排放。就算不提巴黎协定，我们也已经表态了。”
冬天毛译图
There are several paths for the U.S. to exit the agreement. But regardless how it happens, returning to a role of global environmental leadership under the next administration is possible, and some experts believe, necessary.
美国有几种方式可以撤出协定，但无论以何种方式撤出，下一任政府都有可能重新取回全球环保领袖的角色，而一些专家也认为这是有必要的。
Referring to a U.S. withdrawal from the agreement, Keohane said, “If this ends up as a four-year blip on a long-run downward [emissions] trajectory, then the climate can survive it. But the climate won’t be able to survive the long-run absence of U.S. leadership.”
对于美国撤出巴黎协定，柯恩表示：“如果这最终只是排放降低道路上的一次为期四年的临时倒车，那么地球气候就可以挺过去。但如果美国长期不愿承担领袖责任，那么地球气候就危险了。”
你可能感兴趣的其他文章：
纽约时报：中国富人的海外求医之路（译文）
