整體業績：23Q4盈利表現超市場一致預期。美團23Q4收入737.0億元，超彭博一致預期1%；EBIT 17.6億元，超彭博一致預期32%。調整後淨利潤約43.7億元，超彭博一致預期51%。分業務來看，核心本地商業收入551.3億元，超彭博一致預期2%；新業務收入185.7億元，超彭博一致預期1%。
23Q4E revenue largely in line, along with incremental profit contributions
Key metrics:
Meituan released unaudited 23Q4E results recently: revenue amounted to RMB73.70bn, 1% above Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG). Meanwhile, EBIT shot up to RMB1.76bn, outperforming BBG by 32%; adjusted net profit climbed to about RMB4.37bn, 51% above BBG; and operating profit was RMB8.02bn, 5% above BBG.
核心本地商業：23Q4收入基本符合預期，盈利持續釋放
23Q4收入551.3億元，其中配送服務收入219.3億，低於彭博一致預期1%；佣金收入194.3億，超彭博一致預期4.4%；在線營銷收入109.1億，超彭博一致預期8.7%。23Q4經營利潤80.2億元，超彭博一致預期5%。
Core businesses: Q4E revenue at RMB55.13bn outperformed BBG by 2%
Core local businesses generated RMB55.13bn in 23Q4E, 2% above BBG; while new businesses came in at RMB18.57bn, 1% above BBG. A breakdown shows:
•Distribution services generated RMB21.93bn, 1% below BBG;
•Commission income came to RMB19.43bn, 4.4% above BBG;
•Online marketing brought in RMB10.91bn, 8.7% above BBG.
餐飲外賣：
我們預測23Q4餐飲外賣收入同比增長20%，外賣業務的年度交易用戶持續增長，中高頻用戶及其購買頻率穩步提升。公司在產品、營銷和供應鏈方面優化運營，擴大“拼好飯”的規模和高訂單價值產品運營，如“神搶手”、“一人食”和“必點榜”。
Food deliveries:
we expect food delivery revenue would have increased 20% yoy in 23Q4E, with annual transacting users continuing to grow on a steady increase in mid-to-high-frequency users and their purchase frequency. Meituan improved product operations, marketing and the supply chain, and expanded business scale at Pin Hao Fan (拼好飯) and operations of high-order-value products like Shen Qiang Shou (神搶手) and Meal for One (一人食), as well as the Must-Order List (必點榜).
美團閃購：
我們預計23Q4閃購業務收入同比增長30%，23全年訂單量同比增長超40%，年活躍商家同比增長約30%，用戶的購買頻次和消費持續提升。隨着更多線下零售商接受即時渠道，平臺的供應質量和多樣性也得到提升。受持續補貼獲客的影響，我們預計美團閃購業務整體保持微虧狀態，但受益於美團外賣所搭建的強大三邊網絡效應，我們預計美團閃購業務未來有望持續釋放盈利。
Instashopping:
we expect Instashopping revenue would have risen 30% yoy in 23Q4E, with order volume increasing over 40% in 2023E. Annual active merchants grew about 30% yoy as user purchase frequency and consumption levels increased. With more and more offline retailers entering Meituan’s real-time-sales channel, quality and diversity of supply improved on the platform. However, subsidies in customer acquisitions would likely have resulted in a slight loss in the Instashopping business. In the future, with the establishment of Meituan Waimai boosting a strong tripartite network, we expect Instashopping sales will continue to add incremental profits.
到店酒旅：
23全年GTV同比增長超過100%，年度交易用戶和年度活躍商戶的同比增長分別超過了30%和60%。我們預測美團到店酒旅業務Q4收入同比增長63%。公司進一步加強在高星級酒店領域的影響力，通過聯合營銷活動和與高星級酒店的聯合會員計劃，加深與商家的合作。我們認爲美團到店業務的積累在於強大的商戶數基礎以及與線下流量強相關的找店心智。
Hotels and travel:
gross transaction value (GTV) in this business grew more than 100% yoy in 2023E, as annual transacting users and active merchants grew more than 30% and 60% respectively. We expect Q4E revenue from this business would have increased 63% yoy. The company increased traction with high-starred hotels through joint membership programs and firmed ties with merchants through joint marketing activities. We believe Meituan’s in-store business expansion derives from its strong merchant base and store-selection ability, which correlate closely to offline footfall.
新業務：23Q4經營虧損同比收窄至48億元，略高於彭博預期
23Q4新業務收入185.7億元；經營虧損48.3億元，好於彭博一致預期4%，經營虧損率環比改善至26%。
New businesses: 23Q4E operating loss narrowed to RMB4.8bn, better than BBG
Revenue from Meituan’s new businesses came to RMB18.57bn in 23Q4E; resulting in an operating loss of RMB4.83bn, 4% above BBG, while operating loss ratio improved qoq to 26%.
美團優選
在23年的增長放緩，因爲社區電商市場規模同比基本持平。美團優選在23年虧損原因：1）規模增長慢於預期，難以顯著降低每件商品的履約成本；2）競爭使得難以提高價格加成比率和降低補貼。公司將在24年進行戰略調整並優化商業模式，減少經營虧損；將優先考慮建立關鍵能力和改善用戶體驗；計劃在未來提高價格加成比率並減少補貼。
Meituan Select:
growth slowed last year because of flat growth in the community ecommerce market size. We attribute the following factors:
•Slower scale growth than expected made it difficult to make meaningful cuts in the fulfillment cost per item;
•Intense competition made it difficult to raise price mark-up ratios and reduce subsidies.
The company plans to make strategic adjustments to its business model in 2024E to reduce operating losses. It will prioritize the building up of key capabilities and improve the user experience. It hopes to increase the price markup ratio and reduce subsidies in the future.
美團買菜
於23年12月升級爲新品牌小象超市，從雜貨轉型爲在線超市。23年，小象超市的GTV同比增長約30%。自有品牌的銷售貢獻持續增長。用戶基礎、平均訂單價值和購買頻率都穩步增長。
Meituan Maicai
upgraded and rebranded to Xiaoxiang Supermarket in December 2023, as the company expanded its groceries business to an online supermarket. Xiaoxiang’s GTV increased about 30% in 2023, as sales contributions from private brands grew. The user base, average order value and purchase frequency all grew steadily.
