Kallanish
（开阑商务信息咨询）报道，截至本周，欧洲大部分主要经济体已经进入为期一个月的“软封锁”，以应对卷土重来的第二波冠状病毒大流行。
As of this week, most of Europe’slargest economies have entered a month-long soft lockdown, to tackle theongoing second wave of the coronavirus pandemic,
Kallanish
notes.
虽然终端用户需求预计将会受到新封锁措施的冲击，但欧洲主要国家的钢铁生产商尚未受到直接影响。
While demand from end users isexpected to be hit by the new limitations, steel producers are yet to bedirectly impacted in any of the major European countries.
德国、意大利、法国、西班牙和英国当局都在本国实施限制。不过，在
3
月
/4
月的第一次封锁造成相当大的经济损失之后，他们的目标是尽可能减少经济干扰。建筑业、制造业和整体工业活动应会继续进行。
German, Italian, French, Spanish andBritish authorities are all implementing restrictions in their countries.However, they are targeting as little economic disruption as possible after thefirst lockdowns in March/April caused considerable economic damage.Construction, manufacturing and overall industrial operations should continue.
第一次封锁使欧洲一些炼钢和加工业务陷入停滞。这一次，预计不会出现这种情况。
The first lockdowns brought somesteelmaking and processing operations in Europe to a standstill. This timearound, this is not expected to happen.
上一次，很多钢厂暂时闲置高炉和炼钢活动，使产量匹配需求。之后，生产已随着需求恢复，钢铁生产商和加工商的订单似乎足以维持
11
月的生产。
Last time around, a number ofsteelmakers temporarily idled blast furnaces and steelmaking activities toalign output to demand. Since then, production has recovered in line withdemand and order books at steelmakers and processors seem to be strong enoughto sustain production throughout November.
一位北欧钢贸商表示，与上一次相比，新的封锁措施可能不会那么严格，因为“……人们似乎已经对新冠肺炎疫情感到很厌倦”。他补充说，这次封锁“……对废钢回收的影响会小一些。但是，冬季即将来临，这将对欧洲产生影响，对波罗的海地区的影响更大，该地区在夏季一直是活跃的废钢出口地。”
A northern European steel tradersaid the new lockdown is likely to be less strictly followed as compared withthe last one, as “…there seems to be a high level of Covid fatigue around.” Headded that the lockdown “…will have less of an impact on scrap collection thistime around. However, against that we are anyway entering winter whichwill impact in Europe but more strongly in the Baltic which has been an activescrap exporter over the summer.”
尽管有迹象表明，钢铁行业应该不会受到封锁措施的直接打击，但未来的终端用户需求仍存在不确定性。例如，在南欧，废钢经销商证实，由于存在不确定性，钢厂继续只购买经营所需的最低数量，避免建立任何库存。
Despite indications the steel sectorshould not be directly hit by the limitations, uncertainty remains over futureend-use demand. In southern Europe, for example, scrap dealers confirm thatmills are continuing to buy only the minimum volumes needed to operate,avoiding any sort of stockpiling due to uncertainty.
法国是欧洲第一个实施软封锁的国家，对钢材的总体需求仍处于良好水平。而在意大利，过去两周，由于因预期将实施封锁而进入观望模式，市场活动极为缓慢。不过，板材产品供应严重不足，支撑着意大利的价格和需求。
In France, the first country inEurope to go into soft lockdown, general demand for steel remains atgood levels. In Italy, on the other hand, the market has been extremelyslow during the last two weeks as the country went into wait-and-see mode inanticipation of the lockdown. However, a serious supply shortage for flatproducts is sustaining prices and demand in Italy.
至于钢材消费行业，建筑活动不会受到新封锁措施的冲击。事实上，欧洲国家将有越来越多的公共支出注入该行业，以促进经济复苏。至于汽车需求，可能会在终端用户层面受到新的冲击，因此将在
2021
年第一季度进一步影响钢铁和制造业。
As for the steel using sectors,construction activity is not set to be hit by the new limitations. In fact,more and more public spending in European countries will be pumped into thesector to fuel the recovery. As for automotive demand, this could take a newhit at end-use level, therefore further impacting the steel and manufacturing sectorsin the first quarter of 2021.
欧洲钢铁工业联盟
Eurofer
市场分析总监
Alessandro Sciamarelli
上周指出，
6
月和
7
月市场信心明显回升，但由于第二波疫情，预计
10
月将进一步放缓。
Eurofer
上周将
2020
年欧洲钢铁需求展望提升至同比下降
14.6%
，但确认许多因素仍不确定，
2021
年的复苏可能比预期要慢。
Alessandro Sciamarelli, director formarket analysis at Eurofer, noted last week that a rebound in market confidencewas tangible in June and July, but a further slowdown was expected in Octoberdue to the second pandemic wave. Eurofer lifted its outlook for steel demand inEurope last week to a -14.6% year-on-year drop for 2020, but confirmed thatmany factors are still uncertain and the recovery going into 2021 could beslower than anticipated.
