Kallanish
（开阑商务信息咨询）获悉，拉美钢铁生产商协会
Alacero
的最新报告称，该协会乐观地认为，在
2020
年出现萎缩后，
2021
年拉美钢铁市场有望复苏。
The Latin American steel market is optimistic regarding a recovery in 2021,following a contraction in 2020,
Kallanish
learns from regional steel producers’ association Alacero’s latest report.
“今年年初，拉美钢铁市场预期良好，但冠状病毒危机导致需求低迷……到今年年底，预计粗钢产量将比
2019
年有所下降，”
Alacero
表示。
“The LatinAmerican steel market began this year with good expectations, but thecoronavirus crisis resulted in low demand… By the end of this year crudesteel production is expected to drop compared to 2019,” Alacero says.
在疫情引发的危机中，全球钢铁需求减弱，对拉美地区的消费造成急剧影响。
Global steel demand has weakened amid the pandemic-induced crisis, sharply impacting consumption in Latin America.
“与世界消费量预计在
2020
年下降
2.4%
不同，拉美地区的情况显示，该地区在更大的附加值生产方面失去了竞争力和空间。来自亚洲的大量钢材对该地区的产量构成威胁，与其他地区相比，亚洲国家已恢复生产，且价格较低，”该协会表示。
“Unlikeworld consumption, which is expected to fall by -2.4% in 2020, the Latin American scenario shows a loss of competitiveness and space in greateradded-value production. Regional output is threatened by the large volumes of steel offered from Asia, where countries resumed production at low prices compared to other regions,” the association comments.
该协会预计，
2020
年拉美粗钢产量将同比减少
10.4%
，至
5,439.3
万吨。该协会预计，成品钢材产量将达到近
4,650
万吨，同比下降
10.2%
。其中，长材产量将达到
2,230
万吨，同比下降
12.6%
。板材产量将达到
2,210
万吨，同比下降
7.7%
，而无缝管产量估计将下降
10.5%
，至
190
万吨。
It foreseesthat Latin American crude steel production will decrease by -10.4% on-year in2020 to 54,393,000 tonnes. The association expects that finished steel outputwill reach almost 46.5 million tonnes, down -10.2% on-year. From this total,long products will amount to 22.3mt, down -12.6%. Flat steel production shouldreach 22.1mt, down -7.7%, while seamless tube is estimated to fall by -10.5% to1.9mt.
预计今年该地区的成品钢材消费量为
5,800
万吨，同比下降
10.9%
。
Regional finished steel consumption is expected to amount to 58mt this year, down by-10.9% y-o-y.
根据
Alacero
的数据，今年拉美地区的钢铁产品进口量将下降
11.2%
，至
2,020
万吨。该协会补充说，这些进口产品将占该地区钢材表观消费量的
37%
，不利于本地工业，并带来贸易摩擦和失业威胁。
According to Alacero, imports of steel products will fall -11.2% this year to 20.2mt. These will nevertheless represent 37% of regional apparent steel consumption,thereby creating disincentives to local industry, trade friction and unemployment threats, the association adds.
据估计，拉美地区
2020
年的成品钢材出口量应达到
810
万吨，同比减少
10.1%
，而其钢铁贸易逆差可能达到
1,210
万吨。
