本週恆生指數、恆生國企指數、恆生科技指數分別+0.46%、+0.80%、+1.19%，港股市場逐步展現回暖跡象。
本週南向資金流入約100.9238億元。本週美元兌人民幣離岸匯率上行，7/5日收於7.2842。24Q1以來，港股市場底部不斷擡升，4月下旬以來內外多重因素共振，市場迎來持續大漲，5月港股市場小幅收漲。全球市場比較下，中國資產當前仍具性價比。在預期逐漸修復、期待後續基本面逐漸改善的基礎上，我們認爲當前港股中概仍具估值吸引力，風險回報比高。
HK-listed Chinese stocks provide attractive valuations and high risk-reward ratios
HSI indices:
the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 0.46% last week, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.80% and the Hang Seng Technology Index was up 1.19%, as signs of a gradual recovery emerged in the Hong Kong market. Southbound fund inflows amounted to about RMB10.09bn and the USD/CNH (offshore) rate rose in the week to close at 7.2842 on 5 July. The HK stock market trended upward from 24Q1, while resonance from multiple internal and external factors sustained the surge from late April and the market went on to trend slightly higher in May.
Inexpensive valuations:
Chinese assets remain cost-effective on a global market perspective. With expectations firming amid projections of gradually improving fundamentals, we view HK-listed Chinese stocks’ current valuations as attractive and we believe they have high risk-return ratios.
資金層面，
本週港股通4個交易日共淨買入100.92億元，較上週南向資金多流入14.75億元，南向資金持續流入港股市場，主要買入建設銀行、中國移動、工商銀行等高股息概念股。本週騰訊、阿里巴巴等互聯網公司加大股東回報帶動恆生指數走強。7月2日，阿里巴巴集團發佈公告，2024年第二季度公司以58億美元的總價回購了總計 6.13億股普通股（相當於7700萬股美國存托股）；7月2日-5日，騰訊控股連續4天回購約10億港幣股票。宏觀層面來看，2024年6月，財新中國製造業PMI錄得51.8，較前月上升0.1個百分點，連續第八個月維持在榮枯線上並錄得2021年6月以來新高，製造業景氣度繼續向好。從市場估值層面來看，截止7月5日，恆指12個月前瞻PE較2019年來中位數折讓-1.5個標準差，處於2019年來歷史分位值約13.5%；恆指相對MSCI全球指數前瞻PE較2019年來中位數折讓-2.9個標準差，處於2019年來6.0%分位值；恆指股權風險溢價低於歷史中位數0.4個標準差，處於約56.9%歷史分位值。橫向來看，港股市場在前期深度回調之後，持續處於全球價值低位，估值性價比凸顯。
High-dividend stocks drove net buys; manufacturing industry maintain recovery
Southbound flows:
the HK Stock Connect had net buying amounting to RMB10.09bn during the shorter week of 4 trading days (1 July was a public holiday) last week, an RMB1.48bn increase from the previous week in terms of southbound funds. In particular, buys into high-dividend stocks like China Construction Bank, China Mobile and ICBC Funds drove the continuing flow of funds into the HK stock market. Also driving the HSI higher were internet companies that increased shareholder returns, such as Tencent and Alibaba. Alibaba Group announced on 2 July it had repurchased 613m of its common shares (equivalent to 77m ADS) for USD5.8bn in 24Q2, and Tencent Holdings bought back HKD1bn of its shares over 4 straight days.
Manufacturing:
the recovery in the manufacturing industry continued, as reflected by the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI at 51.8 in June 2024, up 0.1ppt mom, staying above the boom-bust line for the 8th straight month, and hitting a new high since June 2021.
Market valuations:
the HSI 12-month forward PE as of 5 July was 1.5 standard deviations below the median in 2019 and within the 13.5th percentile in 2019. The HSI forward PE relative to the MSCI Global Index was 2.9 std dev below the median in 2019 and within the 6.0th percentile in 2019. The HSI equity risk premium was 0.4 std dev below the historical median and roughly within the 56.9th historical percentile. A horizontal comparison shows the HK stock market still has a low global value after the previous deep correction, reflecting its inexpensive valuation.
海外方面，
美國6月ADP就業人數增15萬人，低於預期的增16.5萬人。美國6月ISM非製造業PMI爲48.8，爲2020年5月以來新低，預期52.5，前值53.8。當地時間7月3日，美聯儲公佈了6月11日至12日的聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）貨幣政策會議紀要。會議紀要顯示，通脹在過去一年有所緩解，但仍處於高位。美聯儲依舊會高度關注通脹風險。與此同時，委員們一致認爲，在他們對通脹持續向2%邁進有更大信心之前，降低利率目標區間是不合適的。而爲了支持在較長期內實現最大就業和2%通脹率的目標，委員們同意將聯邦基金利率目標區間維持在5.25%至5.5%。
Foreign markets: US job creation slows; inflation eases; Fed to maintain rates
ADP data shows the US added 150,000 non-farm private-sector jobs in June, below an expected 165,000. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI was 48.8 in June, the lowest since May 2020, vs an expected 52.5 and the previous value of 53.8. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve released on 3 July the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of 11-12 June. The minutes show that inflation, while remaining high, has eased in the past year. The Fed said it will keep monitoring inflation risks. FOMC members agreed it would be inappropriate to lower the target range for interest rates until they had greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2%. To support the goals of maximum employment and 2% inflation over the longer term, they agreed to maintain the target range for US federal funds at 5.25-5.5%.
