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潮玩行業 - 泡泡瑪特核心五問五答

天风国际  · 公众号  · 商业 科技自媒体  · 2024-08-22 18:04

主要观点总结

本文介绍了关于中国潮流玩具行业中的领军企业泡泡玛特的一系列问题,包括IP生命周期、持续推出受欢迎IP的能力、海外拓展思路和进展、新业务方面的乐园和游戏业务的进展和增量,以及新产品线的探索等。同时,文章还提醒了相关风险。对此,天风国际证券集团有限公司对本文件进行了编制和风险提示。

关键观点总结

关键观点1: 如何看待泡泡玛特旗下IP的生命周期

泡泡玛特通过持续迭代设计、多元化产品线和高频上新策略,有效延长旗下IP生命周期。以Molly为例,公司不断迭代设计、刷新IP形象以适应不同时期的审美。

关键观点2: 泡泡玛特持续推出受欢迎IP的能力

公司通过全链条体系包括IP获取、筛选和变现,形成稳定的热门IP产出机制。通过收购和自研构建丰富的IP储备池,提高热门IP产出的概率。

关键观点3: 泡泡玛特的海外拓展战略和进展

公司遵循展会曝光、试点、门店入驻的路径进行海外拓展,先亚洲后欧美。2023年海外收入占比达17%,预计海外市场空间仍大。

关键观点4: 新业务方面乐园和游戏业务的进展和增量

城市乐园为公司打造以IP为核心的沉浸式体验空间,预期将带来显著增长。自研手游《梦想家园》增强粉丝与IP的互动性和故事性。预计游戏业务将为公司贡献一定流水。

关键观点5: 泡泡玛特新产品线的探索

公司积极探索新产品线如泡泡积木(POP BLOCKS)和卡牌(POP CARDS),旨在增强产品可玩性和互动性。这些新探索有望为公司贡献新的业绩增量和拓宽收入来源。


正文

China Consumer Discretionary


潮玩行業 - 泡泡瑪特核心五問五答


Trendy toy industry: Five questions and answers about Pop Mart



投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

Q1:如何看待泡泡瑪特旗下的IP生命週期?

- 泡泡瑪特通過持續迭代設計、多元化產品線和高頻上新策略,有效延長旗下IP生命週期。以Molly爲例,公司不斷迭代設計、煥新IP形象以引領/適應不同時期的審美,20年起公司通過打造多元產品線(Mega、衍生品)+穩定上新滿足不同用戶需求。


Q1: What are your views on the life-cycle of Pop Mart's IPs?

•We believe Pop Mart has been effective in extending the life-cycle of its IPs through various means, including iterative designs and diverse product lines with high-frequency new launches. Take Molly for example: the company iteratively designed and refreshed the IP image according to the aesthetics of different periods. Pop Mart has been diversifying product lines since 2020 (Mega and derivatives) amid a steady stream of innovative launches that fulfill the requirements of a variety of consumers.


Q2:泡泡瑪特是否具有持續推出受歡迎IP的能力?

- 公司已經形成從IP獲取到IP篩選及IP變現的全鏈條體系。IP獲取:公司通過市場地位和品牌力,平均每年吸納約14-15個新IP,併成功自研如Nyota等熱門IP。IP篩選能力(已形成體系,可複製):泡泡瑪特的完備分析預測體系和市場趨勢把握,確保IP篩選和推廣的有效性。IP矩陣完善:通過收購和自研,構建豐富多元的IP儲備池,提高熱門IP產出的概率。


Q2: Will Pop Mart be able to keep rolling out popular IPs?

The company's full-chain IP coverage ranges from acquisitions and screening to monetization:

•IP acquisitions: on the strength of Pop Mart's market positioning and brand power, the company pulls about 14-15 new IPs every year on average. It has successfully developed popular IPs such as Nyota.

•IP screening: the company has completed the setting up of its IP screening system, which it can then replicate. We believe that Pop Mart's comprehensive analytical and predictive system, as well as its sure grasp of market trends, will continue to ensure timely and effective IP screening and promotions.

•IP matrix: Pop Mart has built up a rich and diverse pipeline of IPs through proprietary R&D and acquisitions. This suggests high probability of successful future IP rollouts.


Q3:泡泡瑪特海外拓展思路和進展?怎麼看待後續空間?

- 泡泡瑪特海外拓展遵循“展會曝光-試點-門店入駐”路徑,先亞洲後歐美,已完成重點市場首店佈局。2023年海外收入佔比達17%,門店及機器人商店數量顯著增長。看好其本土化策略和全渠道銷售網絡,我們預計海外市場門店空間約400家,仍具增長空間。


Q3: What about the strategic roadmap and progress of Pop Mart's foreign market expansion? How sizable is the future market growth potential?

•Penetration strategy: Pop Mart's foreign market strategy typically starts with market exposure through exhibitions, followed by pilot runs and finally setting up stores. Its international outreach began in Asia, went to Europe and then the US. It has completed building out a network of first stores in key foreign markets.

•Growing network: the international market accounted for 17% of total revenue in 2023, with the foreign store network, including Roboshops, growing quickly. We are bullish about Pop Mart's localization strategy and omnichannel sales network. We expect its foreign store network will grow to about 400 stores in view of their fast-growth potential.


Q4:新業務方面,怎麼看待泡泡瑪特樂園、遊戲業務的進展和增量?

- 城市樂園爲公司打造以IP爲核心的沉浸式體驗空間,增強IP的內容和故事性。我們預計樂園一期將爲公司貢獻2-4億元流水,後續二期投入運營或爲樂園帶來規模增長。自研手遊《夢想家園》上線表現亮眼,有望增強粉絲與IP的互動性和故事性,可以視作公司線上宣發渠道,未來或可通過遊戲測試形象/場景的接受度並將其實物化。我們預計貢獻5-2億元流水。


Q4: How are Pop Mart's new businesses progressing at the Pop Land theme park and the games business in terms of incremental growth?

•Pop Land theme park: the leisure park business provides an immersive IP-centric experience to flesh out Pop Mart's IP content and storytelling. We expect phase 1 will contribute turnover of RMB200m-400m and subsequent phase 2 operations will likely expand the business scale.

•Proprietary mobile game: Dream Home has done well online. Since it enhances interactivity between IPs and their fans through storytelling, we regard this business as an online publicity channel. The game provides a means for Pop Mart to pretest market acceptance of new IPs' image and scenarios before they become physical products. We expect the games business will contribute RMB150m-200m turnover.


Q5:泡泡瑪特後續新產品線的探索?

- 泡泡瑪特積極探索新產品線,如泡泡積木(POP BLOCKS)和卡牌(POP CARDS),旨在增強產品可玩性和互動性。積木品線對標樂高,結合自有IP,開拓高增長市場。卡牌業務結合集換式玩法和熱門IP,開拓藍海市場。這些新探索有望爲公司貢獻新的業績增量,拓寬收入來源。


Q5: Any color on Pop Mart's explorations and new product pipeline?

Pop Mart's latest product innovations include Pop Blocks and Pop Cards, which score well in playability and interactivity:

•Pop Blocks , essentially building blocks, are benchmarked against Lego. Embellished by Pop Mart's own IPs, we believe they represent a high-growth market.

•Pop Cards combine twin attractions of gameplay trading cards and popular IPs, which we believe represent a blue ocean market.

We expect these product initiatives will contribute incremental growth to Pop Mart and widen its revenue stream.


風險提示: 潮玩行業競爭加劇風險;IP的表現不及預期;新業務擴展表現不及預期。


Risks: intensifying competition in the trendy toy industry; weaker-than-expected IP monetization; new business is expanding more slowly than expected.


Email: [email protected]

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文件 由天風國際證券集團有限公司 , 天風國際證券與期貨有限公司(證監會中央編號:







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