澳门

Over the past decade, the huge numbers of Chinese punters visiting Macau – the only place in China that allows casinos –have turned the territory into a gaming Mecca with seven times the revenues of Las Vegas.

过去十年，随着大量中国赌徒涌入，澳门，作为国内唯一合法赌博之地，已成为博彩收入七倍于拉斯维加斯的赌博圣地。

The soaring growth helped the tiny 28 sq km enclave of 600,000 people overtake Switzerland last year to become the fourth richest territory per person in the world.

澳门，这座人口 60 万、面积 28 平方公里的小城，受益于强劲的博彩收入，已于去年超过瑞士，成为全球人均财富最高地区之一，排名第四。

Until recently the only pause in the dizzying rise was briefly in 2009 after the global financial crisis.

直到最近，澳门博彩收入增长势头仅于 2009 年受到过经济危机短暂影响。

But gaming revenues have fallen each month from June, a worrying sign for the six operators with casino licences – Sands China, Wynn Macau, Melco Crown, SJM, Galaxy and MGM China – who are planning big expansions in the next few years in an area called the Cotai strip.

今年七月以来，澳门博彩收入已连续数月下滑，这令六家拥有赌场经营牌照的公司 ---- 金沙中国，永利度假，新濠博亚，澳博控股，银河投资，米高梅中国 --- 深感担忧。这六家公司计划于未来几年在澳门金光大道区域扩建赌场。

Macau’s gaming revenues have risen by an average of 30 per cent annually over the past decade, transforming a place once known for triad warfare into a wealthy entertainment hub that hosts stars such as Justin Bieber and the Rolling Stones.

澳门博彩收入在过去十年里以平均每年 30% 的速度增长，这块曾经的三合会地盘因此发展成为接待贾斯汀比伯和滚石乐队的娱乐中心。

However, the territory is in danger of seeing the first annual fall in gaming revenues since it abandoned a monopoly system in 2002. CLSA, one of the most bullish brokers on Macau, expects 2014 revenues to fall 1 per cent year-on-year, as casinos brace themselves for the Chinese president’s visit.

自 2002 年澳门放弃专卖制度以来，澳门正面临着博彩收入首次年度下滑。里昂证券 (CreditLyonnais Securities Asia) ，作为澳门地区最乐观的经纪商，认为博彩业正为习近平来访作准备，受此影响，今年博彩业收入将同比下降 1% 。

“The big dogs in Beijing are coming to Macau and some people don’t like gambling when officials are around,” says CLSA’s Aaron Fischer, who thinks Macau will face a bumpy ride for six months.

“北京的大官要来了，有的人不愿当着大官的面赌博”。 里昂证券的 Aaron Fischer 说。他认为澳门博彩业将于连续六个月遭遇波折。

The anti-corruption campaign has also hit “junket” operators who have traditionally facilitated the industry by bringing rich Chinese to Macau and providing the credit lines necessary to circumvent currency controls. One junket executive says Macau is facing “very major issues” and that the impact “will be long-term”.

博彩中介招揽大陆富人赴澳，并提供较高的信货额度，以避开货币管制，推动了博彩业发展。但现在中介行业亦受反腐运动打击。某中介公司主管称，澳门将面临严重问题，反腐会给博彩行业带来长久影响。

Mr Xi’s anti-graft and austerity drives have targeted everything from pricey shark fin soup to top Communist party officials. Signs over the past year that he is aiming for Zhou Yongkang, a former member of the ruling Politburo Standing Committee, sent a signal that nobody was immune.

反腐倡廉，厉行节约 ---- 习此举覆盖面极广，从高价鱼翅汤到党内高级官员，无不受其影响。前中央政治局委员周永康于 2013 年被查，习借此表明没人可以置身反腐浪潮之外。

“The trickle-down effect is that some ofthe big players have decided that it is not going to be good to be seen playingin Macau,” says David Green, a Macau gaming expert at Newpage Consulting.

“反腐运动产生了涓滴效应，一些大赌客认为被发现在澳门赌博对自己不利。” Newpage Consulting 的博彩业专家 David Green 称。

Macau is split into two main segments. VIP players generally have to buy HK$1m ($129,000) worth of chips to play baccarat– the favourite “game of fortune” in Macau – at the private high-roller rooms.The mass market is roughly split between “premium mass” where punters wager a minimum of HK$2,000 ($260) per hand, and the rest of the market where minimum bets range from HK$500 to HK$2,000.

澳门博彩业分成了两个主要部分。贵宾通常须购买价值价值 1 百万港币的筹码，在私人豪华客房玩巴卡拉纸牌 --- 澳门最受欢迎的“幸运之轮”游戏。大众市场分为中场客市场（每笔赌额最低 2000 港币）和其余市场（最低赌额为 500 到 2000 港币不等）。

Growth in the mass market has slowed because of the Chinese economy and rules that make it harder to abuse avisa-free system that allows Chinese to use Macau as a transit point. It has also been hit by a clampdown on using UnionPay, China’s biggest credit card company, to dodge currency controls.

大众市场发展放缓，原因在于免签证系统和中国银联的使用受限。免签证系统使得中国人把澳门当作一个中转站，而今中国经济和各项规定使得免签系统不得滥用；中国银联，作为中国最大的信用卡公司，其银联卡被用于逃避货币管制，现在银联卡使用已被限制。

But the pain has been much worse in the VIP market, which accounts for more than two-thirds of revenues. While all casinos are being hit, Mr Green says Stanley Ho’s SJM and Galaxy are the most exposed as they have 50 per cent of the VIP market.

占博彩业总收入三分之二以上的 VIP 市场受到的损失更大。所有赌场都受到影响， David Green 称，而 SJM 和银河娱乐风险敞口最大，它们占据着 VIP 市场 50% 的份额。

Wynn Macau, the casino owned by Steve Wynn, relies more on VIP clients than its non-Chinese competitors – including Sheldon Adelson’s Sands China and James Packers’ Melco Crown – but Mr Green said itwould suffer less than SJM and Galaxy as its gambling operations tend to be very profitable across tables.

永利澳门 是一家为 Steve Wynn 所有的赌场。和它的外国竞争者— -- 包括金沙中国，新濠博亚 ---- 相比，永利澳门对 VIP 客户依赖更为严重。 David Green 说，但和 SJM 与银河娱乐相比，它所受的损失就小的多，其博彩业务帐面收入颇丰。

In May, Mr Wynn said he was “sure the new president of China is going to make a very important impact on China . . . but right here in Macau, things seem the same”. Last week, he tweaked his tune, saying that VIP business revenues had shrunk. He said he was not concerned and refused to say whether 2014 would see a fall.

五月， Steve Wynn 说，中国的这位新主席将给中国带来非常重大的影响…… 但在澳门，一切照旧。 上周他一改前言，称永利澳门赌场的贵宾厅营业额已缩减。他说他对此并不在意，拒绝对 2014 年盈利是否会下降置评。

While the casinos try to respond to thefall in VIP business – which will accelerate a greater push into mass market gambling and entertainment favoured by the Macau government – signs of a slowdown have been emerging slowly.

各大赌场着手应对贵宾厅营业额下滑，贵宾厅营业额下滑将迫使赌场重视赌博和娱乐产业中的大众市场。大众市场受澳门特区政府的青睐和重视。与此同时，博彩业低迷前景渐渐显现。

Galaxy in June blamed a 7 per centyear-on-year fall in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation at its StarWorld Macau casino on “the worst VIP luck quarter inhistory”. The casino executive says he stopped giving some Chinese gamblers credit three months ago, and adds that some big junkets pulled back fromlending to rich Chinese even earlier.

银河娱乐旗下的澳门星际赌场六月份息税折旧摊销前利润（ EBITDA ）年同比下滑 7% ，银河娱乐将之归咎于“有史以来贵宾运气最好的季度”。 赌场经理称 , 三个月前他已停止给一些大陆赌客赊帐，而一些大的博彩中介公司更早时候就停止了向中国富人的借贷。

The executive says the junkets are reluctant to lend to powerful Chinese tycoons because “you just don’t know who is next” to enter the anti-graft crosshairs.

该经理称，博彩中介人不愿借款给权势显赫的中国大亨，因为没人知道下一个被反贪局盯上的会是谁。

Some brokers, such as Deutsche Bank, think that Macau could also face weaker mass market growth at a time when labour costs are rising. But the executive says China will remain a sound source of gamblers as the middle class grows. Macau government data show that even as VIPs abandon the enclave, the number of tourists has been increasing at an average monthly rate of 8 per cent.

一些中间人，如德意志银行，认为 在劳动力成本上涨之际，澳门博彩业大众市场的发展前景亦将惨淡。但这位经理称随着中产阶层的扩大，中国仍将是赌客的主要来源地之一。澳门特区政府的数据显示，尽管贵宾赌客来之甚少，来澳游客数量以平均每月 8% 的速度递增。

“See the forest, not just the trees withthe branches,” says the casino executive. “It will be mass leading VIP after it turns round.”

这位赌场经理告诫人们，切莫一叶遮目，未来大众市场必将领跑 VIP 市场。

While China’s anti-corruption campaign ishurting the Macau casino operators, the biggest losers are many of theso-called “junket” operators who help bring rich Chinese punters to the gambling haven.

受反腐运动影响，赌场运营商叫苦不迭，而负责拉客的博彩中介则将成为最大输家。

Falling numbers of VIP gamblers – roughly defined as players who bet more than HK$1m ($128,000) in private rooms – are creating cash flow problems for many smaller junket operators in Macau. One casino executive said 30 of the more than 200 licensed junkets in the Chinese territory had gone bust over the past year.

那些在私人贵宾厅豪掷 1 百万以上港币的人被尊为 VIP 客户， VIP 客户数量的下降使澳门许多小的博彩中介资金周转出现问题。某赌场经理表示，过去一年里，中国境内 200 多个获许可经营的博彩中介里有 30 个已破产。

The squeeze threatens to upend a business model that has existed in Macau in various forms for decades. According to a paper by two Macau experts, Wang Wuyi and the late William Eadington, in the1930s, agents called jin ke – Chinese for “introduce guest” – scoured mainland China for potential gamblers who could help support a growing population of Chinese war refugees in Macau.

这一威胁将颠覆博彩中介这一以多种形式存在于澳门长达数十年的商业模式，澳门事务专家王五一（音）和之后的 William Eadington 在报告中称。 1930 年代，名为“进客”——即介绍客户——的代理人， 在中国内地找寻潜在的赌客，赌客的到来有助于支持越来越多逃到澳门的中国战争难民。

However, the jin ke have since been subsumed into a more sophisticated model where agents in China bring gamblers to junket operators – or VIP promoters – in Macau. In most cases, the casinos provide private rooms for the junket operators to run baccarat games under a profit-sharing arrangement.

“进客”模式随后变的更为复杂：中国代理人把赌客介绍给澳门的博彩中介（也称