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裕元集團: 8月製造表現靚麗

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-09-25 19:15

正文

Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings

(0551 HK)


8月製造表現靚麗


August operating data: manufacturing arm did well amid gradual recovery of the global footwear industry

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

公司公告8月數據

公司24年8月收入7.1億美元,同增12%;24年1-8月收入54億,同增0.3%;其中製造業務營收單月同比+21%,累計同比+7%;寶勝營收單月同比-6%,累計同比-9%。

同業8月表現分化,豐泰企業8月收入同減8%,儒鴻8月收入同增+37%。


Update: total revenue up 12% yoy in Aug, with manufacturing clocking 21% yoy

Yue Yuen Industrial (YY) released a revenue update for August 2024 on 10 Sept 2024. YY generated revenue of USD710m (up 12% yoy) in August, bringing the first eight months’ revenue to USD5.4bn (up 0.3% yoy). By segment, the manufacturing arm achieved revenue growth of 21% yoy for August and 7% yoy for 24M8, while revenue from Pou Sheng declined 6% yoy for August and 9% yoy for 24M8.


Revenue performance by other industry players varied in August, with Feng Tay Enterprises seeing an 8% yoy fall, while Eclat racked up 37% yoy growth.


公司製造業務鞋履產能需求暢旺

公司通過靈活調度產能以及有序加班計劃,帶動製造業務整體產能利用率及鞋履出貨量的良好復甦。惟部分廠區配合加班趕工推高利用率,加之新增產能爬坡,產能負載未達均衡。與此同時,公司致力推行降本增效及嚴謹費用節約計劃,加上低基期效應,帶動盈利穩健增長。


隨著庫存去化週期結束,以及奧運賽事帶動,訂單能見度隨著全球鞋履行業逐漸回暖而有所改善。製造業務迎來良好復甦,盈利穩健增長。


Manufacturing: boosting capacity utilization; earnings benefit from rising demand

At its manufacturing business, Yue Yuen (YY) boosted capacity utilization and footwear shipments through flexible scheduling of production capacity and systematic overtime management. However, capacity loads were unbalanced overall because some factories increased overtime and accelerated production to boost utilization rates and the company also ramped up new production capacities. Even so, plans for rigorous cost-cutting and efficiency improvements, as well as a low base effect, helped drive steady profit growth.


Bolstered by the Olympics and the end of the inventory depletion cycle, order visibility improved in tandem with a gradual recovery in global footwear fulfillments. As a result, the manufacturing business had a solid recovery and sturdy earnings growth.


2023年庫存去化週期結束,24H1全球鞋履需求復甦

2023年全球宏觀經濟充滿挑戰、景氣波動及消費者信心不足,導致主要鞋履生產國家的鞋履出口金額按年跌幅超過10.0%。而根據葡萄牙鞋業製造商協會(「APICCAPS」)所發佈的「全球鞋業年鑑2024」報告指出,2023年全球鞋履總出口量按年下降9.1%,其中美國人均消費鞋履雙數為5.8雙,顯著低於2022年的8.0雙。


24H1根據越南海關數據,越南鞋履出口按年上升8.8%至107億美元;而印度尼西亞中央統計局數據顯示,24H1印度尼西亞鞋履出口按年增加0.7%至32億美元。


根據中國海關統計,24H1中國鞋履出口按年減少5.4%至234億美元,而按鞋履出口量則按年增加3.5%至45.2億雙。


24H1: global footwear demand showed signs of recovery from downturn in 2023

Decline in export value/volume in 2023: footwear exports from major footwear-producing countries shrank more than 10.0% yoy, due to a challenging global macroeconomy, economic fluctuations and weak consumer confidence; while global footwear export volume declined 9.1% yoy in 2023, according to the Global Footwear Yearbook 2024 report released by Associação Portuguesa Ind. Calçado Componentes Artigos Pele Sucedaneos, while per capita footwear consumption in the US dropped to 5.8 pairs, significantly below the 8.0 pairs recorded for 2022.


Export value/volume by country for 24H1:

•For Vietnam , footwear exports increased 8.8% yoy to USD10.7bn, according to Vietnam Customs H1 data.

•For Indonesia , footwear exports grew by 0.7% yoy to USD3.2bn, according to the country’s Central Bureau of Statistics.

•For China , footwear exports decreased 5.4% yoy to USD23.4bn, but footwear export volume increased 3.5% yoy to 4.52bn pairs, according to China Customs statistics.




投資建議/Investment Ideas


維持盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

裕元為全球最大的運動、運動休閒、休閒鞋及戶外鞋製造商,擁有多元化的品牌客戶組合及生產基地。其與Nike、adidas、Asics、New Balance、Salomon及Timberland等領導國際品牌擁有長期合作關係,提供享譽盛名的頂級服務。公司遍佈全球的產能具備超卓生產能力,於快速反應能力、靈活性、創新能力、設計開發能力以及卓越的品質受到廣泛認可。

我們維持盈利預測,預計公司FY24-26年收入分別為86.5億美元、96.45億美元、109.35億美元;

歸母淨利分別為3.8億美元、4.2億美元、4.6億美元;

EPS分別為0.24美元/股、0.26美元/股、0.29美元/股;

對應 PE 分別為 7x、7x、6x。


Valuation and risks

YY is the world’s largest manufacturer of sports, athleisure, casual and outdoor footwear, with a diversified portfolio of brand customers and production bases. It has long-term partnerships with leading international brands such as Nike, Adidas, Asics, New Balance, Salomon and Timberland, and is renowned for its excellent service. It is widely recognized for its global production capacities, quick responses and flexibility, innovations, design and development capabilities, and product quality.


We maintain our earnings forecasts for the company, expecting 2024/25/26E revenue of USD8.65bn/9.65bn/10.94bn and net profit of USD380m/420m/460m, which implies EPS of USD0.24/0.26/0.29 with corresponding PEs of 7/7/6x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 產能負載未達均衡;全球宏觀經濟尚未明朗;地域衝突帶來航運風險;外匯風險等。


Risks include: uneven capacity utilizations; global macroeconomic uncertainties; geopolitical conflicts raising shipping risks; and FX risks.



Email:  [email protected]

TFI research report website:

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