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如果发生核战争 我们能存活下来吗?How Prepared for the impact of  nuclear war?

EHSCity  · 公众号  · 社会安全  · 2017-09-23 12:16

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如果发生核战争,英国政府至少在伦敦的心脏地带有一处隐秘的地堡。地堡的名字叫品达(Pindar),它和古希腊的一位诗人同名。不过,其中的含义却令人胆战心惊。In the event of nuclear war, the British government has at its disposal at least one bunker hidden away in the very heart of London. It’s called Pindar. It shares its name with an ancient Greek poet – but the reference is chilling.


据说,在公元前335年,亚历山大大帝摧毁了底比斯城(Thebes),仅仅保留了品达的房子。品达的房子得以幸存,是因为他的诗歌颂扬了这位希腊大帝的祖先。It is said that in 335 BC, Alexander the Great demolished the city of Thebes and left only Pindar’s house standing – spared in thanks for some of his poems, which praised the Greek king’s ancestor.

当然,这其中隐含的意思就是,如果发生核战争,伦敦被夷为平地,名为品达的这座地堡依然能够幸存。品达是否专门为实现这个目的而设计不得而知。目前为此只有为数不多的几张关于这一建筑综合体的照片公开出来,而且,还都是从品达的内部所摄,英国国防部根据信息自由法的规定,在一次应询中对此进行了确认。 The implication, of course, is that even if London were to be flattened in a nuclear exchange, Pindar would survive. Whether the building has been specifically designed for this is not known. Only a few photos of the complex have ever been published – the fact that they were taken within Pindar was confirmed by the Ministry of Defence in its response to a Freedom of Information Act request.

和那些极其安全的军事指挥部一样,品达可以让"政府得以持续运作",这是政府计划的一部分,以确保权力机关在极端灾难过程中乃至事后能够正常运转。不过,确保军事将领和高级政客战胜灾难是一回事,那么他们必须保护和代表的普通民众的安全呢?我们做好准备了吗?As well as ultra-safe military headquarters, Pindar offers “continuity of government” – it is part of state plans to ensure authority can prevail even during and after extreme catastrophes. But the capacity for military leaders and senior politicians to outfox disaster is one thing. What about the public they are meant to be protecting and representing? Are we prepared?



纽约的一处核辐射避难所(图片来源: AFP/Getty Images)


这是位于新泽西的史蒂文斯理工学院(Stevens Institute of Technology)的亚历克斯·威伦斯坦(Alex Wellerstein)最为关切的问题。至于政府的连续性,他说,"我不关心这个问题……那是他们自己的问题。"That is the question that most preoccupies Alex Wellerstein at the Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey. On continuity of government he says, “I’m not interested in that… that’s their problem.”

威伦斯坦最近宣布,他和同事正在参与一项计划,复兴民防,即制定方法和信息宣传措施,帮助民众在军事攻击和自然灾害面前进行自我保护。

Wellerstein recently announced that he and his colleagues are taking part in a project to reinvent civil defence. That is, the methods and information campaigns designed to help the public protect themselves in the event of a military attack or natural disaster.


    在冷战期间,民防是经常提及的话题。当时,核攻击幽灵影响着大众文化,也是政治上流行的话题。今天,人们不再那么经常讨论核爆炸和它的后续影响。不过,威伦斯坦认为,这一切需要改变。

    毕竟,世界上还有15,000枚左右核武器,其中,绝大部分在俄罗斯和美国。两国领导人最近承认,两国的关系处于危险的低点。

    威伦斯坦承认,发生核战争或流氓国家与恐怖组织引爆小规模核装置的可能性极小。但他认为,有必要防患于未然。





    威伦斯坦此前所做的项目之一就是核武地图:在谷歌地图上进行标注修改,向使用者展示地球任何一个角落他们所选择的核武器爆炸将产生的基本影响,包括在大城市。

    After all, there remain about 15,000 nuclear weapons in the world today, the vast majority owned by Russia and the United States. The leaders of both countries recently agreed with one another that relations between their states were at a dangerously low point.

    Although Wellerstein acknowledges that nuclear war or a small-scale nuclear detonation by a rogue state or terrorist group is extremely unlikely, he believes there is still value in being prepared just in case.

    设计的理念是将核威胁更加逼真的展示在人们面前,让人们熟知核威胁。因为,很多人轻视民防,认为它没有什么作用。"他们喜欢嘲笑这类东西,"他解释道。现在,威伦斯坦正在设计更加逼真的工具。

    "设想你戴上一个(虚拟现实)头盔,"他说,"你在观看曼哈顿的天际线,你看到了一枚核武器爆炸。假想你看见蘑菇云从你面前升起。"

    "这样是不是显得更逼真?"

    One of Wellerstein’s previous projects was Nukemap: a modified version of Google Maps that tells the user the basic effects of the blast – from the nuclear weapon of their choice – around any location on Earth, including large cities.

    The idea is to encourage people to put the nuclear threat into familiar terms, making it seem more real. This is because many scoff at the alleged impotence of civil defence – “they delight in laughing at this stuff,” he explains. And now Wellerstein is planning far more visceral tools.

    “Imagine you could put on a [virtual reality] headset,” he says. “You’re looking at the skyline of Manhattan and you see a nuclear weapon go off. Imagine you see this mushroom cloud going up in front of you.

    “Does that make it more tangible?”

    他的新计划将考虑通过各种各样的素材来实现相似的目标,比如,他提议以漫画小说的形式,向人们传授知识,提高核攻击情形下的生存机率。

    建议非常简单,人们可以待在家中而不必试图驱车逃离受影响区域。这是因为,在危机情况下,交通会变得非常拥堵,就像在飓风警报时经常发生是那样。当核炸弹引爆时,它会吸纳很多尘土和碎片,对其形成辐射,然后再将这些看不见的"放射性尘埃"撒向周边地区。

    "待在建筑物中,保护因素显著增多,"威伦斯坦解释道,"你待在建筑物内几个小时,你的辐射风险就会显著降低。"

    His new project will consider all kinds of materials made with a similar purpose, he says. For example, he suggests the idea of graphic novels designed to impart knowledge about what can be done to improve chances of survival after nuclear attack.

    The advice can be as simple as staying indoors instead of trying to drive out of the affected area. This is because roads in crisis situations often become jammed with traffic – this often happens following hurricane warnings, for instance. And when a nuclear bomb goes off, it can suck up lots of dust and debris and irradiates it before spewing this invisible ‘fallout’ out over the surrounding land.

    “In the middle of a building, the protection factor goes up dramatically,” explains Wellerstein. “You stay there for a few hours and your radiation risk decreases dramatically.”



    韩国首尔一个地铁站入口处的一块"避难所"标志(图片来源: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)


    随着北朝鲜不断炫耀其不断增强的核弹头导弹发射能力,声称可以发射到美国本土,美朝两国领导人之间的关系越来越紧张,一些位于朝鲜导弹发射范围内的地区开始更加严肃地进行防备。在日本,有些村落开始进行核攻击演习。夏威夷修订了指导民众进行核爆防备的措施的条例,美国西海岸的一些地方主管部门也在采取类似措施。直接受北朝鲜威胁的美国关岛最近发布了如何应对核辐射的指令。与此同时,美国国土安全部也于近期重新设计了官网 Ready.gov,增设了有关核爆炸的栏目。

    在其它国家,民防的重要性在近些年已经不再列入议事日程。截至上个世纪80年代,英国制定了一系列的民防预备措施,其中一些措施,通过分布于英国各地的区域管理者,可以帮助政府实现不间断运行。其它一些措施,如防空警报和宣传运动,则直接服务于普通民众。

    例如,警报部署在成千上万个地点,可以用来向民众预警导弹袭击,也可以用于在辐射消失时通知警报解除。

    如果发生全面的核战争,这些冷战基础设施还能发挥作用吗?感谢上苍,还从没有需要在这种真实场景下进行验证。

    "这一特殊事件的问题在于它和其它类型的突发事件完全不同,"英国皇家国际事务研究所(Chatham House)政策学院国际安全系主任帕特丽夏·路易斯(Patricia Lewis)说,"它太可怕了。"

    As North Korea continues to demonstrate its increasing capability for launching a nuclear missile that could reach the US and tensions rise between the country’s two leaders, some communities within range of its missiles are beginning to take preparations more seriously. In Japan, villages have been staging nuclear attack drills. Hawaii has revised its guidelines for the public on what to do in the event of a nuclear explosion, as have some local authorities on the US west coast. One of the areas directly threatened by North Korea, the US territory of Guam, has also recently issued instructions about how to cope with radiation (see "Armageddon advice", below). Meanwhile, the US Department of Homeland Security also has recently redesigned its website called Ready.gov, which includes a section on nuclear blasts.







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