【经济学人】土耳其电器集团丨2017.06.01丨总第931期

FORGIVE a maker of washing machines a fondness for spin. Hakan Bulgurlu, who manages Arcelik, the biggest producer and seller of white goods in Turkey, claims a “strong mood” has returned to his domestic market. Sales there leapt by 35% in the first quarter compared with the same time last year. His forecast is upbeat. “Turkey is more resilient than it looks from the outside,” he says, citing cheery reports from dealers who run his 3,000 own-brand shops.

原谅洗衣机的制造商喜欢旋转。哈坎·保格鲁管理的阿奇立克是土耳其白色家电最大的生产商和销售商。他声称“强烈情绪”已经回到国内市场。第一季度的销售额比去年同期增长了35%。他的预测是乐观的。他说：“土耳其实际比它看起来更有弹性”。他引用了一个经营着3000家自有品牌店铺的经销商的乐观报告。

Reality is less whiter than white. Many investors and traders remain spooked by political dramas, a coup plot last year and by an authoritarian president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The IMF gave warning in February that low business profits, a lack of credit and political uncertainty all bode ill for Turkey’s economy. A splurge of public spending and stimulus measures—a special tax on appliances has been suspended for a few months—have brought forward sales of appliances to before the usual, summer, shopping season. Firms cannot trust in a domestic recovery just yet.

现实比白色更惨淡。由于去年独裁总统，雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的政变阴谋，许多投资者和交易员仍然很担忧。二月份，国际货币基金组织指出，低的商业利润、缺乏信用和政治不确定性都预示着土耳其经济的衰退。挥霍公共支出和一种特别税暂停的刺激措施，已使家电销售暂停好几个月，平时这个夏季就是购物季。公司们并不相信国内的复苏。

• Spook 吓；惊吓；受惊

Arcelik’s prospects, however, depend more on tapping distant markets than on rebounding local ones. It wisely branched out after the mid-1990s (when Turkey joined Europe’s customs union) and today has 18 factories, with nearly 30,000 staff, in seven countries. Last year it generated global sales of €4.8bn ($5.4bn), 60% outside of Turkey, and a decent 11% pre-tax profit. Much came from western Europe.

然而，阿奇立克的发展，更多的是依赖于开发遥远的市场而不是当地市场的反弹。它在20世纪90年代中期（土耳其加入欧洲关税同盟）后明智地打开了市场，今天在七个国家有18家工厂，员工近30000人。去年，它产生的全球销售是54亿美元，60%是来自土耳其之外，有一个十分不错的11%税前利润。大部分利润来自欧洲西部。

• Rebound 弹回；反弹；报应；反作用于；回升；反弹

• branch out 扩展业务范围

It counts as a rare bright light for corporate Turkey. Its Beko brand of kitchen and other appliances is among the most popular in Britain as shoppers switched to lowish-priced goods after the financial crisis. The firm aims to be among the top three in every European market as it expands in the face of bigger rivals , notably Electrolux of Sweden and Germany’s BSH.

这对于土耳其公司来说是一次极为珍贵的机会。金融危机之后，消费者都倾向购买价格低廉的物品，土耳其公司旗下销售厨房用具的BEKO品牌以及别的各种电气用具因此广受消费者的欢迎并且立即成为了英国最热门的品牌。该公司的目标是跻身于欧洲市场的前三名，并且继续扩展增强自身竞争力，力争与瑞典的伊莱克斯和德国的BSH旗鼓相当。

• Rival 竞争对手

Size is important. Industry consolidation leaves smallish firms at risk of being swallowed, though Arcelik looks secure because it is mostly owned by Koc Holding, one of two hefty, family-run conglomerates in Turkey. What is more, firms’ success depends on their devoting resources to research, such as for finding uses once appliances are digitally connected via the “internet of things”.