高盛-洞察中国商品大周期，从Beta到Alpha，三大趋势

三思行研 · 公众号 · · 2024-08-29 14:51
正文

      
                   本文是高盛香港商品团队高层的特别电话会！
                  
                会议探讨了中国在大宗商品市场中的重要性，
                
                 并分析了三个主要趋势如何影响全球大宗商品需求增长。
                
                1、供应安全：中国倾向于减少对进口的依赖，这对中国国内生产的煤炭、可再生能源和电动汽车的需求产生了积极影响。然而，这种战略也增加了对关键矿产、石油和黄金的战略性采购需求。
               
                2、供给侧脱碳：中国的脱碳战略支持了电动汽车、电池和绿色能源的需求，这对金属行业有利。但由于边际成本较低的替代能源，对石油的需求为负。
               
                3、增长放缓：中国GDP增速预计将从2015-2019年的7%降至2034年的3%，这对全球大宗商品需求增长产生了压力。特别是，房地产行业的收缩抑制了钢铁需求，而中国制造业出口增长对全球大宗商品需求的影响有限。
               
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                 以下是原文翻译，仅供参考！
                
                Yeah, thanks everyone for joining. So I'll cover three main views. The number one, view two is that we think that 3S China trends will push commodity markets from an era characterized by beta, by commodity moves, commodity prices and quantity and moving together to an era with significant divergences across, you know, commodities in terms of demand trends. Second, and related to the first node, I'll pitch why goal is our favorite commodity. And third, I will argue that weakness in China demand is risk, is skewing the risk to our own price outlook to the downside. Let's move to page UH7, which summarizes our 3 s nodes. So the basic idea is that there are basically three trends that are going to create pretty significant divergences in terms of the demand growth environment across commodities, very different from the 2 beta supercycle when all commodities were moving together.
               
                感谢大家的参与。我将分享三个主要观点。第一，第二个观点是，我们认为中国的三大趋势将推动大宗商品市场从一个以商品走势、商品价格和数量同步变动为特征的时代，转向一个商品需求趋势出现显著差异的时代。第二，与第一个观点相关，我将阐述为什么铜是我们最看好的大宗商品。第三，我将论证中国需求疲软是风险所在，它使我们的价格前景面临下行风险。让我们翻到UH7页，它总结了我们的三大趋势。所以基本观点是，有三个趋势将在大宗商品的需求增长环境中造成相当大的差异，这与所有大宗商品都同步变动的2个β超级周期截然不同。
               
                So the first trend is shown in column 1, which is basically Beijing's focus on security of commodity supply. On the one hand, you have the long run goal to reduce the dependence on imports, which is weighing on imports of both oil and a natural gas, but is supporting demand of domestically produced commodities, including a coal and green power. On the other hand, you have this short run trends where policymakers want to fill up their strategic reserves through strategic reserve purchases of critical minerals, oil and also gold. From deck. Chinese central bank. Moving to the second trend, the supply side decarbonization strategy basically consists of aggressively supporting domestic production of low carbon technology such as Evs, batteries and power equipment. This surge of green supply obviously boosts demand for green metals such as Copper Alley and the battery metals. But he's also weighing on the mangrove of oil because we're seeing pretty rapid displacements of oil fueled cars by EDS.
               
                第一个趋势显示在第一列，基本上是北京对大宗商品供应安全的关注。一方面，长期目标是减少对进口的依赖，这对石油和天然气的进口构成了压力，但支持了对国内生产的大宗商品的需求，包括煤炭和绿色电力。另一方面，你有这种短期趋势，政策制定者想通过战略储备购买关键矿产、石油和黄金来填补他们的战略储备。来自中国央行。谈到第二个趋势，供应端的脱碳战略基本上包括大力支持国内生产低碳技术，如电动汽车、电池和电力设备。这股绿色供应的激增显然提振了对绿色金属的需求，如铜和电池金属。但它也对石油产生了压力，因为我们看到电动汽车正在迅速取代燃油车。
               
                The third trend, I think, is potentially the most important one. It's the slowdown in GDP growth that our China economics team expects from roughly 7% in the five years to depend before the pandemic to 3% by 2034. This slowdown will weigh on commodity growth across the complex, with particularly large effects for aluminum and steel and even keeping the level of China GDP growth constant, we have a major shift here away from the property sector as the source, key source of growth to the manufacturing sector. We do think that the shift away from the property sector is very negative for ferrous metals, and this shift to exports is not necessarily positive to global commodity demand, if the gains in Chinese manufacturing activity are really largely driven by gains in market share, which is basically what we're seeing.
               
                第三个趋势，我认为可能是最重要的一个。这是我们的中国经济团队预计的GDP增长放缓，从疫情前五年大约7%的水平放缓到2034年的3%。这一放缓将对整个大宗商品领域的增长造成压力，对铝和钢铁的影响尤其大，即使中国GDP增速保持不变，我们也有一个重大的转变，即从房地产部门作为增长的主要来源转向制造业部门。我们认为，远离房地产部门对黑色金属来说是非常不利的，而如果中国制造业活动的增长主要是由市场份额的增加驱动的，那么这种转向出口对全球大宗商品需求来说并不一定是积极的，而这基本上是我们所看到的情况。
               
                The last column sort of adds it all up. The bottom line is that the effects of the 3S trends, global commodity demand growth should be negatives for the ferrous metals such as iron and steel, mostly negative for oil and mostly positive for gold and copper, which I think is a good segue to the second view I'd like to pitch. If we skip, I think, you know, several pages ahead to page nine.
               
                最后一列是对所有这些的总结。底线是，3S趋势的影响，全球大宗商品需求增长对黑色金属如铁和钢来说应该是负面的，对石油大多是负面的，对黄金和铜大多是正面的，我认为这是一个很好的过渡，可以引出我想提出的第二个观点。如果我们跳过几页，到第九页。
               
                Page 9, perfect. So our favorite long commodity right now is gold, not only because the structural increases in demand both from central banks such as the Chinese central bank, but also Chinese households as they look for alternative to invest with limited confidence in the property price outlook. Why are we bullish goals in the base case you rally another 6,7% by early 2025 to 27 dollars portrayons, both for structural and cyclical reasons. In the, on the structural side, we do think that the tripling in central bank purchases since Russia invaded Ukraine that you see on the left panel here is really here to stay is structural em central banks.
               
                第九页，很好。所以我们现在最喜欢的长期大宗商品是黄金，这不仅是因为来自中央银行（如中国中央银行）的结构性需求增加，而且还因为中国家庭在寻找投资替代品，他们对房地产价格前景的信心有限。为什么我们在基本情况下看好黄金？到2025年初，黄金价格将再上涨6.7%，达到2700美元，这既有结构性原因，也有周期性原因。在结构性方面，我们认为，自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，中央银行购买量增加了两倍，如左图所示，这确实是长期存在的结构性因素。
               
                I think I've Learned that their reserves in dollars are not necessarily safe because of the possibility of US sanctions. And there are therefore aggressively piling up on gold. The cyclical reason to expect higher gold prices is that the Fed is very likely to cut. We'll get an update from Chair Powell in a few hours. But as rates come down, the opportunity cost of building hold comes down and we expect western investors to reenter the goal market.
               
                So a pretty bullish base case, but I think the major appeal of the gold investment thesis here is that you should perform pretty well in alternative scenarios. The recession, for instance, or geopolitical scenarios, whether it's tariffs imposed by the US on China, whether would be pressure on the next lecture, potential escalation of the wars in the Middle East or Russia. I think in all these situations, the goal is likely to perform well with some simulation suggesting an additional 15% upside on top of our base case if you were to see an imposition of sanctions by the US or if the bond market were to worry about US debts trajectory in the context of elections, what about the downside? And how does that tie back to China? We think the downside is somewhat limited because China demand for gold is highly priced elastic. If you were to see a meaningful drop in prices, our model suggests that Chinese households would rebuy gold pretty aggressively because they tend to be very price elastic and sort of provide a floor under gold prices.
               
                我认为，他们的美元储备并不一定安全，因为可能会受到美国的制裁。因此，他们正在积极囤积黄金。预期黄金价格上涨的周期性原因是，美联储很可能会降息。我们会在几个小时后从鲍威尔主席那里得到最新消息。但随着利率下降，持有黄金的机会成本也会下降，我们预计西方投资者将重新进入黄金市场。
               
                所以这是一个相当乐观的基本情况，但我认为黄金投资论点的主要吸引力在于，在其他情况下，它的表现也应该相当不错。例如，经济衰退或地缘政治情况，无论是美国对中国加征关税，还是下一场讲座中可能涉及的压力，或是中东或俄罗斯战争的潜在升级。我认为，在所有这些情况下，黄金都有可能表现良好，一些模拟结果显示，如果美国实施制裁，或者债券市场在选举背景下担心美国债务的轨迹，那么黄金价格将在我们基本情况的基础上再上涨15%。那么下行风险呢？这与中国有何关联？我们认为下行风险在某种程度上是有限的，因为中国对黄金的需求具有高度价格弹性。如果价格大幅下跌，我们的模型表明，中国家庭将非常积极地重新购买黄金，因为他们往往对价格非常敏感，并能在某种程度上为黄金价格提供支撑。
               
                All right, third and final view, let's turn to the oil outlook and the role of China in the indoor outlook. We can go to page 11, which shows a remarkable weakness in Chinese oil demands, which we think slow down on a year over year basis to just 200 kbd in the first half. And it's actually down on a year over year basis at this summer.
               
                And so the question is, why is Chinese all demands so weak in the next page gives the answer. Chinese oil demands on next stage has slowed down from 600 kbd on average before the pandemic to now just 200 kbd in the first half, primarily because of fuel switching with cars switching from oil, gasoline to root to power and trucks switching away from diesel to LNG. The second reason is that we're seeing a sharp slowdown in demand for oil based feedstocks that are basically allowing plants in China to produce goods such as plastics. And this petrochemical normalization follows a period of stereorapid capacity additions, which has led to very low petrochemical margins and therefore a sharp drop in advance. We think the long run new trend for Chinese old demand growth is probably closer to the recent 200,250 growth rate, then the very rapid 600 kbd growth base before the pandemic.
               
                好的，第三个也是最后一个观点，让我们转向石油前景以及中国在国内石油前景中的作用。我们可以翻到第11页，它显示了中国石油需求的显著疲软，我们认为与去年同期相比，上半年仅增长了20万桶/日。而实际上，在这个夏天，与去年同期相比，它是下降的。
               
                所以问题是，为什么中国的石油需求如此疲软？下一页给出了答案。中国下一阶段的石油需求从疫情前的平均60万桶/日放缓至现在上半年的仅20万桶/日，这主要是因为燃料转换，汽车从汽油转换为电力，卡车从柴油转换为液化天然气。第二个原因是，我们看到基于石油的原料需求急剧放缓，这些原料基本上允许中国的工厂生产塑料等商品。而这种石化产品的正常化发生在一段快速产能扩张时期之后，这导致石化产品利润率非常低，因此需求急剧下降。我们认为，中国石油需求增长的长期新趋势可能更接近最近的20至25万桶/日的增长率，而不是疫情前非常快速的60万桶/日的增长基数。
               
                To wrap it all up, what does this mean for oil prices? Final slide No. 12 or base case still is brands in a 75 to 90 range with brands in the low 80s next year. But as this page shows, the risks are two sided, but on net skewed to the downside. With, for instance, a scenario where Chinese old demand stays flat at its current low level, taking off about $13 per barrel from our forecast, which would send brand to the high 60s. Also quite a lot of downside risk from potential tariffs imposed on their second potential Trump term. And last but not least, if we simulate a moderate recession, you know, price in demand models, brands would fall to roughly $50 per barrel.
               
                最后，这对油价意味着什么？最后一张幻灯片，第12页，我们的基本情况仍然是油价在75至90美元之间波动，明年油价将在80美元低位附近。但正如这一页所示，风险是双面的，但总体上偏向下行。例如，在中国石油需求保持在当前低水平不变的情况下，我们的预测将减少约每桶13美元，这将使油价降至60美元高位。此外，特朗普第二个任期可能加征关税也带来了相当大的下行风险。最后但同样重要的是，如果我们模拟一次温和的经济衰退，你知道，在需求模型中，油价将降至每桶约50美元。
               
                Is there some upside? Yes, there definitely is. Geopolitical supply disruptions are still possible and a very plausible upside price scenario would be a sharp drop in Iran supply early next year, which could cause a temporary deficit, although you could expect that countries such as Saudi Arabia, I would try to fill in the shortfall and resolve the death. So bottom line, downside risk to the range, especially from the weakness in the, in China demand that we're seeing.
               
                有没有上行空间？当然有。地缘政治供应中断仍然可能发生，一个非常可能的上行价格情景是明年初伊朗供应急剧下降，这可能导致暂时性的短缺，尽管你可以预期像沙特阿拉伯这样的国家会试图填补短缺并解决问题。所以总的来说，下行风险存在，尤其是来自我们看到的中国需求的疲软。
               
                Thank you. You can hear me okay? Yes, we can. Yeah, right. So I'm gonna show actually a few slides as well, you know, on the China side in terms of the broader commodity demand and some of the supply response, you know, given the pricing, you know, getting very depressed.
               
                Now this chart basically shows you kind of the high frequency trend in terms of what construction demand, which represented by construction steel, cement, aluminum on the top where, and also the manufacturer, which is within the bottom, which is flat steel, copper fabrication, aluminum fabrication. So the red color is basically this year versus the blue color last year. So broadly speaking, construction demand is somewhere around 10% to over 20% decline year on year. And this includes some of the later stage of the property construction, which is represented here by construction sections. And I think on the manufacturer side, it's generally less social, less depressed.
               
                谢谢。你们能听到我说话吗？是的，我们可以。好的。所以我也会展示一些幻灯片，关于中国方面更广泛的商品需求和一些供应反应，考虑到价格变得非常低迷。
               
                这张图表基本上展示了高频趋势，即建筑需求，由顶部的建筑钢材、水泥、铝代表，以及制造商，由底部的平钢、铜制品、铝制品代表。所以红色基本上是今年与去年蓝色的对比。所以大致来说，建筑需求同比下降了10%到20%以上。这包括房地产建设的一些后期阶段，由建筑部分代表。我认为在制造商方面，情况普遍不那么糟糕，不那么低迷。
               
                However, I think this year, you know, given we've s, we're basically seeing minus 2-3, this type of numbers that's continue to, that's, that is still a disappointment, I think, versus the expectation. I think the trend recently is that you are actually seeing further deterioration on young year basis in aluminum. But there has been some mild improvement, I think, in terms of positive, on the positive side for copper. And this is our August Waterbook survey. So even if you don't know, we speak with over 70 producers, both downstream and all down the commodity side or midstream every month. So it's not a, so for August, it's not particularly, I think, a strong nor very weak month. I would say it's relative, you know, unchanged, which actually means demand remained overall at a very depressed level.
               
                然而，我认为今年，鉴于我们基本上看到的是负2-3%这类数字，这仍然是一个令人失望的结果，我认为，相对于预期。我认为最近的趋势是，你实际上看到铝的同比进一步恶化。但在铜方面，已经出现了一些温和的改善，这是积极的一面。这是我们的8月Waterbook调查。所以即使你不知道，我们每个月都会与70多家生产商进行交流，包括下游和整个大宗商品或中游的生产商。所以8月并不是特别强也不是特别弱的一个月。我会说它相对没有变化，这实际上意味着需求总体上仍然处于非常低迷的水平。
               
                But I would wanna to highlight, aside from all the weakness, we continue to see, there has been some interesting improvement in State Grid, which is reflected in copper supply. The supplier on the copper side for state grid and ultra high voltage and even energy storage, which actually you could send some of that and get some of the feedback from the Lucian part, Lucian side now. And so as a result, we're seeing some month on month trend improvement in copper. This is combined with some of the mild, also the recovery from the destructive demanding early part of the year. So that's kind of what you're seeing in the near term. And the other thing is, we've been talking about is actually in the first, since the end of second quarter, we are actually seeing higher than normal finished goods inventory. And I mean, that is a result of certainly production is still higher than the demand in the second quarter. So third quarter is likely to be, you know, destocking quarter. And I think given the current supply demand environment, this remains to be at 20 to 40% higher. In terms of the responses, respondent that seeing the abnormal inventory, but there has not been really meaningful destocking taking place.
               
                但我想强调的是，除了我们看到的所有疲软之外，国家电网方面出现了一些有趣的改善，这反映在铜的供应上。国家电网和超高压甚至储能方面的铜供应商，实际上你可以发送一些信息并从Lucian部分、Lucian方面获得一些反馈。因此，我们看到铜的月度趋势有所改善。这是结合了一些温和的复苏，也是今年早些时候破坏性需求之后的复苏。所以这就是你近期所看到的。另一件事是，我们一直在谈论的是，实际上自第二季度末以来，我们看到的成品库存高于正常水平。我的意思是，这当然是第二季度生产仍然高于需求的结果。所以第三季度很可能是去库存季度。而且我认为，鉴于当前的供需环境，这仍然是高出20%到40%。在回应者中，有人看到了异常库存，但还没有真正有意义的去库存发生。
               
                Now what's really interesting here, probably we need to mention there are some near term production cut cycle that coming through. So specifically, if you look at a steel, which is on the top part, you're seeing cash margin, you know, continue trending down on a very negative side. We actually on the right side is a peak IM production in red. You're starting to see the changes towards end of July or early August. I think going into the next one month in September, we're also expecting us the the quite a lot of meals to actually cut their production versus July by about 10%, which means the peak in production will continue to trend down and that probably will lead to, you know, some stabilization in terms of the margin given the demand environment. But it's also a reflection or what Mills actually can see in the coming September that probably is not very promising. And it has certainly has a lot of negative implication on Iron War as well as Dan just commented. In terms of the negative implication, I think that just a continued a structural trend going forward. We're also seeing some production cut in cement. Again, it basically helps the producer to survive, but it doesn't, it's never enough to change the trend. And it's probably a good point just to highlight this report on China capacity. And so beyond the commodity side, what the manufacturers are doing, manufacture profitability remains to be very poor. So in this report, we were basically discussing the potential inflection for the manufacturer side. But the starting point is the first cash margin. If you see a lot of red on these solar modules, electric vehicles, power semis, steel, that basically means half or more than half the industry is at zero cash margin and gray I is at negative cash margin and gray is zero. So this is as bad as a lot of the downstream, upstream sector. And we're also seeing supply response here too. And in terms of capex revision. So the producers are responding by taking capacity. The pace of capacity expansion slower in some of the sector that being, seeing probably very trauma dramatic negative margins such as lithium battery and solar module.
               
                I think that cycle in terms of the supply demand cycle probably will be a lot longer than what we just discussed in steals in versus say, production cut cycle. If you cut in projects and that can actually drive a cyclical improvement. But this is, you know, very much, you know, why we're expecting with current trend that some of these manufacture sector in the coming years, we should see improving utilization in, you know, in solar module and Lisa and battery, but 0 obviously not this quarter. This is more of a trend we're watching and trend is emerging, developing on the ground as well.
高盛-洞察中国商品大周期，从Beta到Alpha，三大趋势

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