主讲人：
杜馨茗（新加坡国立大学经济系助理教授）
主持人：
（北大全健院）潘聿航
参与老师：
（北大经院）秦雪征、石菊、姚奕、王耀璟、袁野、Kevin Devereux、梁远宁、庄晨
（北大全健院）刘国恩、黄成、孙宇、潘聿航、吕蓓妮、林淑君、杨佳楠、林昊翔、蒋少翔
时间：
2024年4月24日（周三）
10:00-11:30
地点:
北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
Xinming Du is an environmental economist and an assistant professor at the National University of Singapore Department of Economics. Her ongoing research covers three topics: 1) how trade affects pollution and natural resource depletion; 2) the impacts and adaptation to emerging pollution sources; 3) methane leakage and greenwashing activities of fossil fuel companies. Xinming holds a PhD degree in Sustainable Development from Columbia University, and bachelor degree in Economics and Environmental Engineering from Tsinghua University. She worked as a short-term consultant at the chief economist office at the World Bank and a summer intern at the International Monetary Fund.
摘要：
This paper shows a cascading mechanism through which international trade-induced deforestation results in a widespread decline of health outcomes in cities distant from where trade activities occur. We examine Brazil, which has ramped up agricultural export over the last two decades to meet rising global demand. Using a shift-share research design, we first show that export shocks cause substantial local agricultural expansion and a virtual one-for-one decline in forest cover. We then solve a dynamic area-of-effect model that predicts where atmospheric changes should be felt – due to loss of forests that would otherwise serve to filter out and absorb air pollutants as they travel – downwind of the deforestation areas. Leveraging quasi-random variation in these atmospheric connections, we establish a causal link between deforestation upstream and subsequent rises in air pollution and premature deaths downstream, with the mortality effects predominantly driven by cardiovascular and respiratory causes. Our estimates reveal a large telecoupled health externality of trade: over 500,000 premature deaths in Brazil over the past two decades. This equates to $0.14 loss in statistical life value per $1 agricultural exports over the study period.
