小鵬汽車24Q1:
Q1 累計交付 21,821 輛車，同比增長19.7%，環比下降49.8%，主要由於G6及24款G9當期交付量減少和季節性影響；總營收 65.5 億元人民幣，同比增長 62.3%，汽車收入 55.4 億元人民幣，同比增長57.8%，服務和其他收入10億元，同比增長93.1%，主要系大衆汽車集團進行平臺與軟件戰略技術合作有關的技術研發服務收益本季度首次確認軟件收入。24Q2指引：公司預計24Q2汽車銷量將在2.9萬輛至3.2萬輛，對應的收入約爲75.0億元至83.0億元。
利潤端：
整體毛利率 12.9%，汽車毛利率5.5%，汽車毛利提升主要系成本降低及產品組合改善所致，此外由於下調P5銷量預期，P5相關的存貨減值及採購承諾的虧損對本季度汽車毛利率產生了3.2個百分點的負影響，加回後爲8.7%；本季度淨虧損 13.7 億元人民幣，同比縮窄41.5%。
XPeng in Q1E: X9 fueled deliveries; better mix and costs helped gross margin
XPeng’s unaudited 24Q1E results bring insights into the current trends in China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) industry:
Deliveries up 20% yoy:
XPeng delivered 21,821 cars in the first quarter of the year, up 19.7% yoy but down 49.8% qoq. The company attributes the yoy uptrend to higher deliveries, particularly of X9, while the qoq slide is explained by seasonality and lower delivery volumes of G6 and the 2024 G9, mitigated by X9 volumes.
Financials:
•Revenue: Q1E generated RMB6.55bn in revenue, up 62.3% yoy; RMB5.54bn from the automotive business, up 57.8% yoy, and the remaining RMB1bn from services and other business, up 93.1% yoy. The uptrend was mainly driven by the first-time recognition of tech R&D service revenue contributed by the platform and software strategic tech collaboration with Volkswagen.
•Profitability: total gross margin was 12.9%, with vehicle gross margin expanding yoy and qoq to 5.5%. Cost cuts and a better car model mix drove up vehicle gross margin, but the 8.7% vehicle gross margin was cut by 3.2ppt on management’s reduced sales expectations of the P5 model as well as P5 inventory impairment and losses on purchase commitments. Net loss in the quarter came to RMB1.37bn, a yoy improvement of 41.5%.
•24Q2E guidance: XPeng’s projected 29,000-32,000 car sales in Q2E implies revenue of about RMB7.50bn-8.30bn.
費用端：
研發費用 13.5 億元，同比增長 4.2%，銷售和管理費用 13.9 億元，同比增長 0.1%。本季度小鵬574家門店，覆蓋178個城市，環比增加74家。本季度現金及現金等價物、受限制現金、短期投資及現金存款總計414.0億元。
Expenses:
R&D expenses amounted to RMB1.35bn in Q1E, up 4.2% yoy, while sales and administrative expenses rose 0.1% yoy to RMB1.39bn. It has 574 stores in 178 cities, 74 more stores than in the previous quarter.
Cash:
cash and equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments and cash deposits amounted to RMB41.4bn.
大衆合作持續加深，有望逐步提升利潤率水平：
24年4月18日大衆汽車集團和小鵬汽車聯合宣佈雙方進一步拓展合作，共同開發基於域控制器及中央計算的電子電氣架構，此外2026年起，新的架構將應用於本土生產的大衆汽車品牌電動汽車中。我們認爲相關合作有望提升小鵬技術輸出的價值量，並持續打造軟件創收的可能性，軟件收入有望逐步提升利潤率水平。
Volkswagen tie-up:
XPeng’s deepening ties with VW will likely nudge up profit margins gradually. They jointly announced on 18 April 2024 that both parties will expand their cooperation to co-develop electronic and electrical (E/E) architecture for domain controllers and centralized computing. Starting from 2026E, they plan to use the new E/E architecture in produced-in-China Volkswagen-branded electric vehicles (EV). We reckon the collaboration could raise XPeng’s technology output value as a software revenue trend emerges. Software revenue could gradually expand profit margins.
國內首個端到端大模型上車，25年實現城區高速智駕體驗同步：
24年5月20日小鵬汽車發佈國內首個量產上車的端到端大模型，包括神經網絡XNet、規控大模型XPlanner和大語言模型XBrain。其產品預期實現“2天迭代一次”，並在未來18個月內智駕能力提升30倍，在2025年實現城區智駕比肩高速智駕體驗。我們認爲更廣泛、高效的經銷商渠道鋪設和更有競爭力的成本有望在下半年開始逐步和新產品週期如X9、Mona等實現共振，我們持續看好小鵬下半年渠道和車型的年內的雙下沉。
End-to-end vehicular LLM:
XPeng mass deployed China’s first such in-vehicle large language model (LLM) on 20 May 2024, a step toward its synchronized urban highway smart driving experience slated for 2025E. The over-the-air operating system upgrade included regulatory control model XPlanner using neural network XNet and managed by its XBrain LLM. Based on iteration every two days, XPeng’s smart driving functionalities would increase 30x in the next 18 months, and help it advance toward an urban smart driving experience comparable to highway smart driving by 2025E. Building broader and more efficient dealer channels, as well as ensuring more competitive costs, could chime with new product cycles for X9 and Mona starting in 24H2E. The company’s dual growth trajectories in channels and models appear to have healthy prospects for H2E.
