耶鲁The Budget Lab的测算：
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1. The proposal raises PCE prices by 0.76% pre-substitution (full retaliation & no Fed offset). That's the equivalent of a $1,250 per household loss in purchasing power on average in 2024$.
2. The proposal raises $1.4-1.5T over 2026-35 conventionally scored, & ~$150B less dynamically scored.
3. US real GDP is 0.2% smaller in the medium-run.
4. The effective tariff rate rises ~6 perc pts to the highest since 1946.
5. We map average price effect across different commodities. For many goods, domestic prices rise too. Natural gas prices are 8.4% higher, autos 4%, produce ~2%.
网页链接1. The proposal raises PCE prices by 0.76% pre-substitution (full retaliation & no Fed offset). That's the equivalent of a $1,250 per household loss in purchasing power on average in 2024$.
2. The proposal raises $1.4-1.5T over 2026-35 conventionally scored, & ~$150B less dynamically scored.
3. US real GDP is 0.2% smaller in the medium-run.
4. The effective tariff rate rises ~6 perc pts to the highest since 1946.
5. We map average price effect across different commodities. For many goods, domestic prices rise too. Natural gas prices are 8.4% higher, autos 4%, produce ~2%.
