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解析文章首发于唧唧堂网站www.jijitang.com
解析作者 | 唧唧堂经济学小组：
战战
；审校编辑 |
悠悠 糖糖
1.通过跨部门知识联系实现增长
大多数创新是由多部门公司开发的。
某些部门比其它部门更容易获得开发新产品所需的知识。
我们研究了这种部门间知识网络及其对企业创新和总体增长的影响。
首先，我们记录了一组关于知识适用性和企业多部门专利行为的部门级和企业级观察结果。
然后，我们开发了企业创新的一般均衡模型，在模型中，部门间的知识联系决定了企业选择在哪些部门进行创新，以及在各个部门投资多少研发资金。
模型表明了企业如何开拓技术空间，说明了研发强度的跨部门差异，描述了技术变革的总体模式。
模拟结果表明，该模型与新的观测结果相吻合。
该模型还对“研发部门固定成本影响增长”的机制提供了新见解。
The majority of innovations are developed by multi-sector firms. The knowledge needed to invent new products is more easily adapted from some sectors than from others. We study this network of knowledge linkages between sectors and its impact on firm innovation and aggregate growth. We first document a set of sectoral-level and firm-level observations on knowledge applicability and firms’ multi-sector patenting behaviour. We then develop a general equilibrium model of firm innovation in which inter-sectoral knowledge linkages determine the set of sectors a firm chooses to innovate in and how much R&D to invest in each sector. It captures how firms evolve in the technology space, accounts for cross-sector differences in R&D intensity, and describes an aggregate model of technological change. The model matches new observations as demonstrated by simulation. It also yields new insights regarding the mechanism through which sectoral fixed costs of R&D affect growth.
参考文献：
Jie Cai, Nan Li, Growth Through Inter-sectoral Knowledge Linkages, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 5, October 2019, Pages 1827–1866, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy062
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2. 用多矩不等式推断因果和结构参数
本文考虑了在多矩不等式检验中，矩不等式个数（记作p）可能比样本量（n）大得多的问题。
解决这一问题可以对因果和结构参数进行推断，因此有多种经济应用；
一个值得注意的例子是Ciliberto和Tamer（2009）的市场结构模型，其中p=2^(m+1)，m是可能进入市场的公司数量。
我们考虑了由“矩不等式个数学生化（或t型）不等式特性统计量的最大值”所给出的检验统计量，并分析了计算检验统计量临界值的各种方法。
具体地说，我们考虑的临界值基于：
（1）联合界引理(the union bound) 结合自正则和（self-normalized sums）的中度偏差不等式，（2）乘数和实证自助法（bootstraps），以及（3）结合以下两种选择的（1）和（2）的两步和三步变体,这两种选择是“远离约束的非信息不等式的选择”和“具有潜在约束但不提供一阶信息的弱信息不等式的新颖选择”。
我们证明了这些方法的效度，表明了在较弱的条件下，当p远大于n的时候，这些方法可以使我们利用n中多项式误差大小递减来进行一些检验；
事实上，对于 c>0，p可以是e的n^c次幂。
重要的是，所有这些结果对矩不等式个数学生化统计量之间的相关结构没有任何限制，并且关于潜在分布的适度分类也保持一致。
此外，在网络版的附件中，对于在某些一般混合条件下的相关数据，我们基于块乘数自助法（block multiplier bootstrap）证明了检验效度。
This article considers the problem of testing many moment inequalities where the number of moment inequalities, denoted by p, is possibly much larger than the sample size n. There is a variety of economic applications where solving this problem allows to carry out inference on causal and structural parameters; a notable example is the market structure model of Ciliberto and Tamer (2009) where p=2^(m+1) with m being the number of firms that could possibly enter the market. We consider the test statistic given by the maximum of p Studentized (or t-type) inequality-specific statistics, and analyse various ways to compute critical values for the test statistic. Specifically, we consider critical values based upon (1) the union bound combined with a moderate deviation inequality for self-normalized sums, (2) the multiplier and empirical bootstraps, and (3) two-step and three-step variants of (1) and (2) by incorporating the selection of uninformative inequalities that are far from being binding and a novel selection of weakly informative inequalities that are potentially binding but do not provide first-order information. We prove validity of these methods, showing that under mild conditions, they lead to tests with the error in size decreasing polynomially in n while allowing for p being much larger than n; indeed p can be of order exp(n^c) for some c>0. Importantly, all these results hold without any restriction on the correlation structure between pp Studentized statistics, and also hold uniformly with respect to suitably large classes of underlying distributions. Moreover, in the online supplement, we show validity of a test based on the block multiplier bootstrap in the case of dependent data under some general mixing conditions.
参考文献：
Victor Chernozhukov, Denis Chetverikov, Kengo Kato, Inference on Causal and Structural Parameters using Many Moment Inequalities, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 5, October 2019, Pages 1867–1900, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy065
3. 区域转移乘数
巴西联邦对市政府拨款机制的一系列中断，使我们可以利用“模糊”断点回归设计（RDD）来确定公共支出对当地劳动力市场的影响。
我们的估计表明，平均来说，每个工作每年的成本约为8000美元，当地的收入乘数约为2。
这种影响主要来自服务业就业，在经济欠发达的城市中更为明显。
A series of discontinuities in the allocation mechanism of federal transfers to municipal governments in Brazil allow us to identify the causal effect of public spending on local labour markets, using a “fuzzy” Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Our estimates imply a cost per job of about 8,000 US dollars per year and a local income multiplier around two. The effect comes mostly from employment in services and is more pronounced among less financially developed municipalities.
参考文献：
Raphael Corbi, Elias Papaioannou, Paolo Surico, Regional Transfer Multipliers, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 5, October 2019, Pages 1901–1934, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy069
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4.代际替代弹性，父母利他主义和生育选择
宏观经济学中常见的朝代模型（Dynastic models），使用单一参数来控制个人在跨时期和跨代际两种情况下的替代消费意愿。
本文定义了代际替代弹性（EGS）的概念，并扩展了标准朝代模型，以便将代际替代弹性从跨期替代弹性（EIS）中分离出来。
在模型的校准版中，代际替代弹性明显大于1，有力地支持了代际替代弹性的概念。
相反，对跨期替代弹性的估计表明，跨期替代弹性小于等于1。
这一结果的约束是：
必须与看似合理的美国生育率相匹配。
我们阐明了代际替代弹性在宏观经济学中的潜在作用。
Dynastic models common in macroeconomics use a single parameter to control the willingness of individuals to substitute consumption both intertemporally, or across periods, and intergenerationally, or across parents and their children. This article defines the concept of elasticity of intergenerational substitution (EGS), and extends a standard dynastic model in order to disentangle the EGS from the EIS, or elasticity of intertemporal substitution. A calibrated version of the model lends strong support to the notion that the EGS is significantly larger than one. In contrast, estimates of the EIS suggests that it is at most one. What disciplines the identification is the need to match empirically plausible fertility rates for the U.S. We illustrate the potential role of the EGS in macroeconomics.
参考文献：
Raphael Corbi, Elias Papaioannou, Paolo Surico, Regional Transfer Multipliers, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 5, October 2019, Pages 1901–1934, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy069
5. 市场均衡中的汽车价格：
具有未被观察到的价格歧视
在卖方价格歧视市场中，买方支付不同的价格，但这一价格可能不易被计量经济学家观察到。
本文考虑了具有这种价格歧视和有限价格信息（如观察目录标价或平均价格）的差异化产品供求模型的结构估计。
在这一框架内，利用需求方通常的矩条件和供给方的限制，可以识别出价格歧视。
通过使用嵌套不动点算法（该算法扩展了通常的压缩映射算法），上述模型可由广义矩估计法（GMM）来估计。
运用我们的方法来估计法国新车市场的需求和供给，结果表明，由价格歧视引起的折扣是重要的。
据估计，平均折扣为9.6%，不同买方特征和汽车规格的差别很大。
我们的结果与法国交易价格的其他证据相一致。
In markets where sellers are able to price discriminate, individuals pay different prices that may be unobserved by the econometrician. This article considers the structural estimation of a demand and supply model of differentiated products with such price discrimination and limited information on prices taking the form of, e.g., observing list prices from catalogues or average prices. Within this framework, identification is achieved not only with usual moment conditions on the demand side, but also through supply-side restrictions. The model can be estimated by GMM using a nested fixed point algorithm that extends the usual contraction mapping algorithm to our setting. We apply our methodology to estimate the demand and supply in the French new automobile market. Our results suggest that discounting arising from price discrimination is important. The average discount is estimated to be 9.6%, with large variation depending on buyers’ characteristics and cars’ specifications. Our results are consistent with other evidence on transaction prices in France.
参考文献：
Xavier D’Haultfœuille, Isis Durrmeyer, Philippe Février, Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium with Unobserved Price Discrimination, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 5, October 2019, Pages 1973–1998, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy064
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6. 无承诺的收入管理：
动态定价和周期性限时抢购
卖方有固定数量的货物要在最后期限前出售。
每次，卖方都会发布一个正常价格，并决定是否进行限时抢购。
随着时间的推移，买方会私下进入市场，并且策略性地选择购买时机。
如果买方在到达时没有购买，那么买方可以投入一定的关注成本，以便在事后重新检视正常价格，或者买方也可以等待未来的限时抢购，在限时抢购中买方可以以折扣价购买商品。
在马尔可夫完美均衡中，卖方偶尔举行限时抢购以降低库存。
限时抢购增加了后来买家的支付意愿，但却降低了早期到达买家的支付意愿。
当买方很有可能在限时抢购中购买商品时，卖方会对所有商品（而不是一种商品）举办一个“大”的首次限时抢购。
A seller has a fixed number of goods to sell by a deadline. At each time, he posts a regular price and decides whether to hold a flash sale. Over time, buyers privately enter the market and strategically time their purchases. If a buyer does not purchase when she arrives, she can pay an attention cost to recheck the regular price afterwards, or she can wait for future flash sales where she may obtain a good at a discounted price. In the unique Markov perfect equilibrium, the seller sporadically holds flash sales to lower the stock of goods. A flash sale increases the willingness to pay of future buyers, but decreases the willingness to pay of buyers who arrive early in the game. When it is very likely that a buyer will obtain a good in a flash sale, the seller holds a “big” initial flash sale for all but one unit of the good.
参考文献：
Francesc Dilmé, Fei Li, Revenue Management without Commitment: Dynamic Pricing and Periodic Flash Sales, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 5, October 2019, Pages 1999–2034, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy073
7. 难民迁移和选举结果
为了估计难民迁移对丹麦议会和市政选举中投票结果的影响，我们的研究首次利用“在准随机基础上分配难民到市政当局”这一政策，来解决移民分类的关键问题。
我们发现，除了大多数城市市政当局之外，其它市政当局在选举周期之间分配较大的难民份额，会导致具有反移民议程的右倾政党的投票份额增加，而如果是根据政策前市政特征来进行难民分配，那么选民的回应则会大不相同。
然而，在最大的城市市政当局中，结果正相反，难民分配对反移民政党的投票份额具有负向影响。
这与城乡人口对难民态度的巨大分歧不谋而合，分歧的一部分原因可能在于本地人与外地人（具有不同城乡背景）之间的独特互动。
难民分配对反移民政党选择市政选举地点也有很大的影响，我们提供了一些证据表明，这会影响选民的投票率。
To estimate the causal effect of refugee migration on voting outcomes in parliamentary and municipal elections in Denmark, our study is the first that addresses the key problem of immigrant sorting by exploiting a policy that assigned refugee immigrants to municipalities on a quasi-random basis. We find that in all but the most urban municipalities, allocation of larger refugee shares between electoral cycles leads to an increase in the vote share for right-leaning parties with an anti-immigration agenda, and we show large differences in voters’ responses to refugee allocation according to pre-policy municipal characteristics. However, in the largest and urban municipalities, refugee allocation has—if anything—the opposite effect on vote shares for anti-immigration parties. This coincides with a sharp divide in attitudes to refugees between urban and rural populations, which may be partly explained by distinctive interactions between natives and those with different background in cities and rural areas. Refugee allocation also has a large impact on the anti-immigration parties’ choice of where to stand for municipal election, and we provide some evidence that it influences voter turnout.
参考文献：
Christian Dustmann, Kristine Vasiljeva, Anna Piil Damm, Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 5, October 2019, Pages 2035–2091, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy047
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8. 互联网与政治：
来自英国地方选举和地方政府政策的证据
我们利用英国丰富的数据，实证研究了宽带互联网扩散对地方选举结果和地方政府政策的影响。
我们的分析表明，互联网取代了新闻内容更丰富的其它媒体（即广播和报纸），从而降低了选民投票率（尤其是教育程度较低和较年轻个体的选民投票率）。
反过来，我们发现有证据表明，在宽带普及率较高的地区，地方政府的支出（特别是对受教育程度较低的选民的支出）和税收较低。
我们的发现与“选民信息在决定选举参与、政府政策和政府规模中起关键作用”的观点是一致的。
We empirically study the effects of broadband internet diffusion on local election outcomes and on local government policies using rich data from the U.K. Our analysis shows that the internet has displaced other media with greater news content (i.e. radio and newspapers), thereby decreasing voter turnout, most notably among less-educated and younger individuals. In turn, we find suggestive evidence that local government expenditures and taxes are lower in areas with greater broadband diffusion, particularly expenditures targeted at less-educated voters. Our findings are consistent with the idea that voters’ information plays a key role in determining electoral participation, government policies, and government size.
参考文献：
Alessandro Gavazza, Mattia Nardotto, Tommaso Valletti, Internet and Politics: Evidence from U.K. Local Elections and Local Government Policies, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 5, October 2019, Pages 2092–2135, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy028
9. 消费者选择中的归因偏差
在判断一件商品的价值时，人们可能会过度地受到之前消费状态的影响。
例如，某人如果在非常饥饿的时候尝试一家新餐馆，那么即使食物质量一般，随后也可能会将其评为高质量。
我们为这种类型的归因偏差开发了一个简单的框架，并将其作为特例嵌入到标准决策模型中。
我们通过两个消费者决策来检验归因偏差。
第一个消费者决策：
我们进行了一个实验，在实验中，我们先对被试的口渴程度进行了实验操纵，然后再请被试饮用新饮料并对新饮料进行评价。
第二个消费者决策：
利用游乐园数千名游客的数据，我们研究了最近一次旅行的宜人天气，是如何影响这些游客实际或打算再次观光该游乐园的可能性的。
在这两个消费者决策中，都有证据表明，人们将暂时状态的影响误认为是消费品的稳定质量。
对于我们研究结果的一些替代性解释，我们提供了证据进行了反驳，并讨论了归因偏差在经济决策中的广泛影响。
When judging the value of a good, people may be overly influenced by the state in which they previously consumed it. For example, someone who tries out a new restaurant while very hungry may subsequently rate it as high quality, even if the food is mediocre. We produce a simple framework for this form of attribution bias that embeds a standard model of decision making as a special case. We test for attribution bias across two consumer decisions. First, we conduct an experiment in which we randomly manipulate the thirst of participants prior to consuming a new drink. Second, using data from thousands of amusement park visitors, we explore how pleasant weather during their most recent trip affects their stated and actual likelihood of returning. In both of these domains, we find evidence that people misattribute the influence of a temporary state to a stable quality of the consumption good. We provide evidence against several alternative accounts for our findings and discuss the broader implications of attribution bias in economic decision making.
参考文献：
Kareem Haggag, Devin G Pope, Kinsey B Bryant-Lees, Maarten W Bos, Attribution Bias in Consumer Choice, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 5, October 2019, Pages 2136–2183, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy054
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10. 家庭分配和承诺：
来自个人支出和时间使用的面板数据的证据
在本文中，我们利用面板数据，来分析家庭内部分配的动态变化，数据包括个人特定消费支出，以及个人用于休闲、市场生产和家庭生产的时间（即“时间使用”）。
在家庭横截面数据中，结婚时夫妻之间预期工资的横截面差异，显著影响时间使用和个人消费支出的分配。
家庭分配中存在着大量的性别不平等。
即使是夫妻工资相同的家庭，妻子的私人消费支出也只有丈夫的一半左右。
在一个特定的家庭中，随着时间的推移，工资冲击导致家庭分配的相对权重转向受到有利冲击的配偶。
此外，我们发现，大的工资冲击才会导致家庭调整分配权重，小的工资冲击并不会导致家庭调整分配权重；
在离婚之前的一年中，对权重的调整是原来的两倍；
双收入家庭比单收入家庭调整得更频繁。
我们用具有潜在有限承诺的家庭动态集体模型，对数据进行了解释。
In this article, we analyse the dynamics of intra-household allocations using unique panel data on individual-specific consumption expenditures and time used for leisure, market production, and home production. Cross-sectional differences at the time of marriage in expected wage profiles between a husband and wife strongly affect the allocation of private consumption expenditures and time use by households in the cross section. There are substantial gender asymmetries in these allocations. Even for households where the husband and wife have identical wages, the private consumption expenditures for the wife are about half those for the husband. Within a given household over time, shocks to wages lead households to shift the relative weights in favour of the spouse receiving the favourable shock. Additionally, we find that households adjust the weights in response to large but not to small shocks; the adjustment to the weights is twice as large in the year leading up to a divorce; and adjustments are more frequent in dual- than in single-earner households. We interpret the data using a dynamic collective model of the household with potentially limited commitment.
参考文献：
Jeremy Lise, Ken Yamada, Household Sharing and Commitment: Evidence from Panel Data on Individual Expenditures and Time Use, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 5, October 2019, Pages 2184–2219, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy066
11. 女警官提高了执法质量吗？
对犯罪报告和家庭暴力的影响
我们研究了20世纪70年代末至90年代初，妇女参与美国警务对暴力犯罪报告和家庭暴力（DV）的影响。
在暴力犯罪报告和家庭暴力这两个关键维度上，女警官提高了警方质量。
