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a. 研究设计:该研究建立了一个简单模型,因为没有研究跟踪整个生命周期来估计HPV感染的累积发生率,所以只能根据现有证据来估计终生获得HPV的概率,主要基于人群一生中性伴侣数量的分布以及每个性伴侣感染 HPV 的概率,来估算美国人在 HPV 疫苗上市前一生中感染 HPV 的概率。该研究对两个年龄段人群(首次性行为到 44 岁;45 岁到 70 岁)感染 HPV 的概率进行了估算,第一年龄阶段感染 HPV 的概率是根据直到 44 岁的性伴侣数量以及性伴侣 HPV 感染情况进行研究,第二年龄阶段的 HPV 感染率是使用每年 HPV 感染概率的估计值进行计算。44 岁之前没有异性伴侣的人被排除在研究之外。
研究结果:在至少有一个异性伴侣的人中,女性感染 HPV 的终生患病率为 84.6%(53.6%-95.0%),男性为 91.3%(69.5%-97.7%)。